Texas Winter 2025-2026

[LearnedHat]

Really is looking like (at least in the hill country) that the initial wave of precip will be mostly a cold rain, which will have people thinking the forecast was a bust, and then that second precip shield comes in and hammers everyone.

I will take all the cold rain I can get and just hope my ice/sleet mix doesn't break too many limbs on trees. The perfect scenario for my Gillespie County lot (I live in DFW) is to get 1/2 to 3/4" of rain and then enough freezing rain to coat limbs but short of the breaking point and then have sleet/snow coat the ground. That would extend the moisture in the root zone for most of my plants over the next two weeks --- meanwhile the ice coating will help insulate the trees and shrubs from the cold damage to come Sunday/Monday (but will probably have sublimated off by then any how). However, that is a small needle to thread . . . so I will just take as little freezing rain as possible so I don't have weighty, cold limbs waving in 25mph wind.

[Iceresistance]

First of all, how is it even possible for someone to get a foot of sleet?
(NOTE: I found this image from a different forum, but had to share it to show how wild it was)

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkwrk.png

[Gotwood]

I didn’t think I would ever see below 0 temps here again after 2021. And yet here we are now with an extreme cold weather warning for temps possibly below 0. Just wait until DFW gets that unexpected 3-4 inch snow pack.

[Ntxw]

First of all, how is it even possible for someone to get a foot of sleet?
(NOTE: I found this image from a different forum, but had to share it to show how wild it was)
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkwrk.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkwrk.png

I cannot wrap my head around this, but I guess qpf is qpf and when you get a lot, it's a lot.

[Quixotic]

But seriously why the hell are people buying up toilet paper? Are they going to use it to keep drafts out?

They’re all bidet owners. They know what happens when the pipes freeze.

[Ntxw]

I didn’t think I would ever see below 0 temps here again after 2021. And yet here we are now with an extreme cold weather warning for temps possibly below 0. Just wait until DFW gets that unexpected 3-4 inch snow pack.

Yeah ignoring snow and ice, get DFW into single digits and it's etched in analogs forever up here in terms of Arctic blasts.

[LearnedHat]

I didn’t think I would ever see below 0 temps here again after 2021. And yet here we are now with an extreme cold weather warning for temps possibly below 0. Just wait until DFW gets that unexpected 3-4 inch snow pack.

At 0*(F), that blanket of sleet/snow might be very beneficial . . . .

I already booked a plumber for late next week JIC. There will be a small fee for that if I cancel but luckily, my hotel that I may or may not need doesn't require cancelation until 6pm Sunday for a Sunday-Tuesday stay.

[Gotwood]

I didn’t think I would ever see below 0 temps here again after 2021. And yet here we are now with an extreme cold weather warning for temps possibly below 0. Just wait until DFW gets that unexpected 3-4 inch snow pack.

Yeah ignoring snow and ice, get DFW into single digits and it's etched in analogs forever up here in terms of Arctic blasts.

At what point do we consider the possibility of a prolonged freezing event here? I mean the GFS has been kinda hinting at it some. This 12z run is absolutely wild temps not getting above 35 until Feb 5th for Metroplex?

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Didn't like the ukmet...until now!

https://i.imgur.com/86bcT0U.gif

Cold rain for Greater SA, bleh…
At this point I’d be very appreciative of a huge dry slot for the 210.

Absolutely not. SA needs rain badly...the city is about 30 inches below normal over the past few years. Horrible drought that just won't end. We'll take any moisture we can get.

I’m just sore about not getting snow and missing the novelty of it. How much rain are we supposed to get?

[opticsguy]

But seriously why the hell are people buying up toilet paper? Are they going to use it to keep drafts out?

They’re all bidet owners. They know what happens when the pipes freeze.

I have a separate back-up power supply for mine.

[rylo7956]

I didn’t think I would ever see below 0 temps here again after 2021. And yet here we are now with an extreme cold weather warning for temps possibly below 0. Just wait until DFW gets that unexpected 3-4 inch snow pack.

Yeah ignoring snow and ice, get DFW into single digits and it's etched in analogs forever up here in terms of Arctic blasts.

Since the current water temps of lakes are high 40's to low 50's would single digit temps bring lake effect snow? Last year we got 2 inches of lake effect snow in Coppell and I will admit I have no idea what dynamics are needed to produce it in North Texas

[Ntxw]

I didn’t think I would ever see below 0 temps here again after 2021. And yet here we are now with an extreme cold weather warning for temps possibly below 0. Just wait until DFW gets that unexpected 3-4 inch snow pack.

Yeah ignoring snow and ice, get DFW into single digits and it's etched in analogs forever up here in terms of Arctic blasts.

Since the current water temps of lakes are high 40's to low 50's would single digit temps bring lake effect snow? Last year we got 2 inches of lake effect snow in Coppell and I will admit I have no idea what dynamics are needed to produce it in North Texas

Currently not the right set up for it I don't think. We'd need a weak upper disturbance west to east to help provide some lift and a strong N-S wind at the surface. High pressure should clear everything and lows dip maxima Monday.

[dhweather]

What if the forecast busts and we get little to no precip? The rage will be beyond comprehension.

[South Texas Storms]

Cold rain for Greater SA, bleh…
At this point I’d be very appreciative of a huge dry slot for the 210.

Absolutely not. SA needs rain badly...the city is about 30 inches below normal over the past few years. Horrible drought that just won't end. We'll take any moisture we can get.

I’m just sore about not getting snow and missing the novelty of it. How much rain are we supposed to get?

I get it...SA could have a chance of snow with the next system late next week.

Model consensus shows about 1 inch of rain in SA for this event...with some of it likely being freezing rain.

[orangeblood]

IMHO Follow the AI Models for temp output, it has the best handle on this entire setup. It appears it learns complex patterns and evolves from vast historical reanalyses of similar setups (e.g., ERA5 for AIFS) instead of the inherent flaws of the conventional models with shallow/dense Arctic airmasses

FRZ Line arrival in DFW Friday Midnight, Austin 10am Saturday, Houston Saturday Midnight

[Ntxw]

I didn’t think I would ever see below 0 temps here again after 2021. And yet here we are now with an extreme cold weather warning for temps possibly below 0. Just wait until DFW gets that unexpected 3-4 inch snow pack.

Yeah ignoring snow and ice, get DFW into single digits and it's etched in analogs forever up here in terms of Arctic blasts.

At what point do we consider the possibility of a prolonged freezing event here? I mean the GFS has been kinda hinting at it some. This 12z run is absolutely wild temps not getting above 35 until Feb 5th for Metroplex?

It could extend through to mid Feb not the subfreezing but well below normal. Not a full calendar month but I would not be shocked if 3-4 weeks of sub 40F average which we haven't done since 2000. Sub-40F are the legendary cold months of old 1978, 1983, 1985, 1989 etc.

[Portastorm]

IMHO Follow the AI Models for temp output, it has the best handle on this entire setup. It appears it learns complex patterns and evolves from vast historical reanalyses of similar setups (e.g., ERA5 for AIFS) instead of the inherent flaws of the conventional models with shallow/dense Arctic airmasses

FRZ Line arrival in DFW Friday Midnight, Austin 10am Saturday, Houston Saturday Midnight

At least for the Austin area, the current NWS prediction is FRZ line arrival of 5 p.m. Saturday. Your 10 a.m. prediction would mean a much worse ice event for Texas' capital city. Not saying you're wrong ... just pointing out the differences. Will be interesting to see how these AI models perform in this event.

[Ntxw]

MJO has crossed into P7, it will slow and loop a bit, which is why we're looking at another reinforcing cold shot late next week. Looks like after a quick passage of 8 it will go into P1-2.



Get it to P2 in Nina February.

[orangeblood]

IMHO Follow the AI Models for temp output, it has the best handle on this entire setup. It appears it learns complex patterns and evolves from vast historical reanalyses of similar setups (e.g., ERA5 for AIFS) instead of the inherent flaws of the conventional models with shallow/dense Arctic airmasses

FRZ Line arrival in DFW Friday Midnight, Austin 10am Saturday, Houston Saturday Midnight

At least for the Austin area, the current NWS prediction is FRZ line arrival of 5 p.m. Saturday. Your 10 a.m. prediction would mean a much worse ice event for Texas' capital city. Not saying you're wrong ... just pointing out the differences. Will be interesting to see how these AI models perform in this event.

Here's the FRZ Line at noon Saturday according to the Euro AIFS

[mmmmsnouts]

But seriously why the hell are people buying up toilet paper? Are they going to use it to keep drafts out?

They’re all bidet owners. They know what happens when the pipes freeze.

Unfortunately I think the correct answer is they think they can sell it and price gouge someone. Same with the packs of bottled water. And if they don’t, they just return it all to Costco. Absolutely horrible people.