Texas Winter 2022-2023

[harp]

Holy poop!! I am loving the 12Z GFS for my area!! I’m sure it’s a rogue run, but wow!!

[Iceresistance]

GFS unloads the cold air.

Snow down to the coast

Yep, all of the models now are opening the floodgates in the closing days of January.

New Orleans is getting sleetfested on that run . . .

[Ntxw]

I would say things are going exactly as planned. The Pacific has just flipped now that we are post 20th and California's rains have shut off. There is a storm threat of snow in the southern plains nearing the 25th and models are now more consistently showing a potential Arctic outbreak associated with the TPV that has set up shop over North America.

[Ntxw]

That 12z GFS is nuts. We'd be in the freezer for so long, wxman57 would have to flee to the other hemisphere .

[Cpv17]

I would say things are going exactly as planned. The Pacific has just flipped now that we are post 20th and California's rains have shut off. There is a storm threat of snow in the southern plains nearing the 25th and models are now more consistently showing a potential Arctic outbreak associated with the TPV that has set up shop over North America.

I’m happy with my January 20th flip prediction lol

[harp]

And snow again for south Louisiana on 2/4!

[Ntxw]

I would say things are going exactly as planned. The Pacific has just flipped now that we are post 20th and California's rains have shut off. There is a storm threat of snow in the southern plains nearing the 25th and models are now more consistently showing a potential Arctic outbreak associated with the TPV that has set up shop over North America.

I’m happy with my January 20th flip prediction lol

Best part is, though still consider it too far out, there isn't a sign of deep cyclonesis along the trof. It would be hard to do so with the TPV/PV mass crushing any system trying to form. We'd see impulses ride the longwave trough, interesting times.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1616802697021358080




 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1616834099154395139




 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1616835529492033536

[orangeblood]

That 12z GFS is nuts. We'd be in the freezer for so long, wxman57 would have to flee to the other hemisphere .

Maybe Alaska ?? These are incredible 7 day anomalies for the lower 48

[Ntxw]

That 12z GFS is nuts. We'd be in the freezer for so long, wxman57 would have to flee to the other hemisphere .

Maybe Alaska ?? These are incredible 7 day anomalies for the lower 48

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_7day/1674302400/1675641600-ntmWfHJwfwU.png

Yeah December was very different. Great delivery pattern, one of the best but no local cold air, strictly what came and went from Siberia.

Now it's very different, we're in the time of season notorious for TPV events, the cold factory machine along with that Siberian infusion. It's fascinating to learn over the years how cold can be derived at points in the winter season.

[WinterMax]

Holy poop!! I am loving the 12Z GFS for my area!! I’m sure it’s a rogue run, but wow!!

26 inches of snow and ice in Baton Rouge Harp, we ridin baw !! Hahaha

[orangeblood]

That 12z GFS is nuts. We'd be in the freezer for so long, wxman57 would have to flee to the other hemisphere .

Maybe Alaska ?? These are incredible 7 day anomalies for the lower 48

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_7day/1674302400/1675641600-ntmWfHJwfwU.png

Yeah December was very different. Great delivery pattern, one of the best but no local cold air, strictly what came and went from Siberia.

Now it's very different, we're in the time of season notorious for TPV events, the cold factory machine along with that Siberian infusion. It's fascinating to learn over the years how cold can be derived at points in the winter season.

It truly is…the rubber band effect , push/pull dynamic is what fascinates me the most. You pull the band one way or another, it almost always snaps back and the harder you pull out the harder it swings the other way. Just looking at a snap shot of an entire 90-120 day period doesn’t tell you much…most of the time it will look normal temp wise but it can be a heck of a roller coaster ride if you’re in it day to day/week to week

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS trending drier for the Tuesday system.

[orangeblood]

12z GEFS trending drier for the Tuesday system.

?? Looks wetter for most of Texas and SE 1/2 of Oklahoma
r

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS trending drier for the Tuesday system.

?? Looks wetter for most of Texas and SE 1/2 of Oklahoma
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/total_precip_inch/1674302400/1674648000-Ij7R9KsMz3U.png r

For me, and on the snow.

[Ntxw]

Euro running. Interested not just on the storm but 144-240hrs. It started this -EPO and cold dump before the GFS.

[harp]

Euro running. Interested not just on the storm but 144-240hrs. It started this -EPO and cold dump before the GFS.

Keep us posted. Thanks

[rwfromkansas]

The GFS trend is a bit concerning. I think the NWS approach of a late changeover is the right call this early. We may not know until late Monday what is actually going to happen with this type of setup. I will hope and pray for some good trends of dynamics being good and temps not too warm.

I will say the Lezak method has put out for a month or two really that it would get cold around the 30th to early Feb time.

No matter what, glad we will get a good rain this month! Let's start the year off strong precip-wise.

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro has the trough back to El Paso, weaker though.

[Iceresistance]

What the heck Euro? Why the sleetfest?