Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[austinrunner]

Now, THIS is more like it ... the 0z GFS@ 360 hours.

The rain is long gone before the 850mb temperatures go negative. During the rains, those temperatures are 11-13 C.

[austinrunner]

If I remember correctly, didn't it snow on easter (around april 7th or so) in parts of central Texas back in 2007? Not sure if it did in Austin but I know it did in Waco.

Yes, that did occur in April 2007 although not as far south as Austin. I believe the snow started around the Copperas Cove-Killeen area northward. Talk about a rare event!

We had freezing rain in Austin.

[southerngale]

Quite impressive

Yet, with all the rain that was forecast, so far, just a little light rain here and there. Very little.

[Portastorm]

Now, THIS is more like it ... the 0z GFS@ 360 hours.

The rain is long gone before the 850mb temperatures go negative. During the rains, those temperatures are 11-13 C.

Trends, austinrunner, it's about the trends. More and more signs pointing to a vigorous return to colder conditions late this month.

[austinrunner]

Now, THIS is more like it ... the 0z GFS@ 360 hours.

The rain is long gone before the 850mb temperatures go negative. During the rains, those temperatures are 11-13 C.

Trends, austinrunner, it's about the trends. More and more signs pointing to a vigorous return to colder conditions late this month.

Thanks but I already knew that.

[srainhoutx]

Just remember that the GFS at this range can be fairly good at sniffing out a pattern change. With AO/EPO aspects showing up in ensembles, there are strong indications that a colder regime is coming. Where, when, and what may fall concerning precip at this range we do not know. What can be taken from the OP GFS is there may very well be a significant Winter Storm somewhere in the S Plains region. Things can change rather quickly after a warm up as we saw this past November. Just my $0.02 cents worth. Enjoy the thaw while it lasts and let's hope that the El Nino Pattern ahead over the next couple of weeks does not bring more than we can handle in the liquid precip department.

[HockeyTx82]

Check this out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCqEBdjaXpM

That is quite a bit of snow. Could you imagine what would happen to us down here in Texas if we ever got that much!!!!! We would have no way to dig out.

[Ntxw]

If that were to happen in Texas either we'd be in some sort of an ice age or the north pole shifted a few hundred miles south

[HockeyTx82]

:uarrow: If that were to happen in Texas either we'd be in some sort of an ice age or the north pole shifted a few hundred miles south

What's crazy is that machine is probably plowing more snow in that video then all of Texas sees in years or decades.

Heck maybe ever (at least as far as record keeping goes)!!!!!!

To bad they can't box that stuff up and send it down south.

[Nederlander]

Yet, with all the rain that was forecast, so far, just a little light rain here and there. Very little.

Yea what happened gale? Im kind of dumbfounded.. I havent seen ANY rain today..

[attallaman]

Yet, with all the rain that was forecast, so far, just a little light rain here and there. Very little.

Yea what happened gale? Im kind of dumbfounded.. I havent seen ANY rain today..

It's falling in my neighborhood tonight but there's not much gale force wind action here tonight as was forecasted by several TV Mets last night.

[txagwxman]

:uarrow: Just remember that the GFS at this range can be fairly good at sniffing out a pattern change. With AO/EPO aspects showing up in ensembles, there are strong indications that a colder regime is coming. Where, when, and what may fall concerning precip at this range we do not know. What can be taken from the OP GFS is there may very well be a significant Winter Storm somewhere in the S Plains region. Things can change rather quickly after a warm up as we saw this past November. Just my $0.02 cents worth. Enjoy the thaw while it lasts and let's hope that the El Nino Pattern ahead over the next couple of weeks does not bring more than we can handle in the liquid precip department.

I am still not convinced yet...have to see the 00z runs tonight...

[attallaman]

The rain has tapered off but the winds have picked up, currently blowing out of the ESE at 17, gusting to 33. My area is under a high wind advisory until 9:00 a.m., CST today. More rain is in the forecast, 70% chance today.

[somethingfunny]

Bleh. I checked http://www.nws.noaa.gov before I left for work today, it was overcast, with a 20% chance of sprinkles.

It ended up being a complete washout.

[txagwxman]

Looks like it will be mid 70s in Houston by Wednesday...Enjoy the warm weather this week. Most of the cold in the back of the forecast is across Canada into the Great Lakes, still no real mechanism to bring it into Texas yet. But will watch the models closely.

[Portastorm]

Looks like it will be mid 70s in Houston by Wednesday...Enjoy the warm weather this week. Most of the cold in the back of the forecast is across Canada into the Great Lakes, still no real mechanism to bring it into Texas yet. But will watch the models closely.

I still stand by the signals we talked about yesterday showing the cold is definitely coming back. However, I don't see any signs of it either in today's 0z GFS or Euro ... even though yesterday's 0z showed winter's return after 300 hours. Will be curious to see how the operational runs develop this weekend.

Meanwhile, rainfall around these parts ranged from 1.5 to 2.7 inches based on LCRA hydromet values.

[Ntxw]

Looks like models have been neglecting the low\wave over Kansas up until this point. FW AFD. Should be interesting to see what it does.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010/
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH TEXAS AND AN INTENSIFYING UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS
NESTED WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WHILE THE SOUTH TEXAS LOW IS LIFTING NORTH AND
SHEARING APART. THE PLACEMENT OF THE TWO LOWS PUT NORTH TEXAS IN A
DEFORMATION AXIS...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING.
FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW FILLS.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY AND RESULT IN CONTINUED DYNAMIC LIFT AND
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERESTIMATED
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW/POTENTIAL VORTICITY THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGESTS A TROPOSPHERIC
FOLDING EVENT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE IN PV...AND ONE
WONDERS IF THE MODELS ARE STILL PLAYING CATCH-UP. THEREFORE WILL
SIDE WITH THE WETTER SOLUTION FROM THE RUC AND SEEMINGLY REALISTIC
4KM WRF...AND KEEP THE POPS GOING OVER THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HOLD POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT NAM/RUC FORECASTS BRING THE
FREEZING LEVEL DOWN TO ABOUT 4K FT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. DEGREE
OF DYNAMIC LIFT/COOLING WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...BUT SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S WITH NO LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE AN
ADEQUATE BUFFER AND KEEP PRECIP ALL LIQUID.

[Weatherdude20]

System still developing but watch for Friday and Saturday the 22nd and 23rd.

[Ntxw]

System still developing but watch for Friday and Saturday the 22nd and 23rd.

I don't see anything else with it except maybe more rain, am I missing something?

[DentonGal]

Interesting article this morning from Joe Bastardi at Accuweather.com

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastard ... traveler=0