Texas Winter 2016-2017

[wxman57]

GFS has a little cold air by the end of January, maybe a freeze down to Houston (big maybe). Then warming up. No sign of any winter weather across TX through 2 weeks. Possibly second or third week of February, unless the cold air just heads east to the Great Lakes & New England. Nice upper 70s to near 80 today. I remain in control of the Texas thermostat.

[Ntxw]

I went through some analogs and one that kind of has been showing was Feb 1989 (winter of 1988-1989). This is the forgotten blast that was overshadowed by what occurred the next winter (Dec 1989). This was one heck of a blast for DFW. Sleet and ice early this month. Feb 4th a high of 18, low of 14 then the following days high of 23 and 29, lows of 13 and 15. You could say this was similar to the Super bowl blast of 2011. What's interesting, with all the notoriety of the high pressure records of 1983 in Miles Montana, Feb 1989 actually holds the records for both US and North America. 1078mb in Alaska is the record, while 1079mb was measured in Canada.

Requested Obs from NCDC


1988-1989 was a very strong La Nina

[aggiecutter]

[wxman57]

I remember that early 1989 freeze very well. I flew to Winter Park, CO for a ski trip during the outbreak. First morning I was there, the temperature got down to -42F. I had to rush outside and see what that felt like (after putting on 20 layers of clothes). Sky was clear that day, and not a breath of wind. Had the whole mountain to ourselves. Sat outside at a mid-mountain restaurant at lunch and unzipped our coats. It was a hit 0F by then. Didn't need ice in my drink, as it was freezing over as I ate. Only "problem" we had was that we had to make sure we covered any patch of skin (or body part) that we wanted to keep...

Back to the present, big storms firing to my southwest. I've already measured nearly 9" of rain this month. Don't really need any more. Could get some heavy storms in the Houston area around 5pm-7pm.

[Tireman4]

Wxman 57:

Back to the present, big storms firing to my southwest. I've already measured nearly 9" of rain this month. Don't really need any more. Could get some heavy storms in the Houston area around 5pm-7pm.

Yeah, I was about to ask you about this. Steve and Jeff are monitoring this and I was assuming you would be too. I saw the T-Skews and it could be rough? Is this worrying you?

[Ntxw]

Guidance has really missed moisture availability of late. Been missing the tropical Pacific connection, no surprise though with the active MJO and - SOI




SOI - Notice the 30 day has rapidly fallen off Nina levels from 6s to 1s

10 Jan 2017 1012.86 1004.05 19.79 6.64 0.58
11 Jan 2017 1011.77 1005.30 8.77 6.89 0.88
12 Jan 2017 1010.07 1005.70 -1.13 6.95 1.15
13 Jan 2017 1009.60 1005.70 -3.34 6.94 1.26
14 Jan 2017 1009.54 1007.35 -11.39 6.81 1.12
15 Jan 2017 1010.49 1008.35 -11.63 6.62 0.85
16 Jan 2017 1011.43 1007.65 -3.90 6.46 0.76
17 Jan 2017 1010.67 1007.50 -6.78 6.05 0.74
18 Jan 2017 1007.79 1008.80 -26.47 4.99 0.49
19 Jan 2017 1006.54 1009.05 -33.54 3.09 0.07
20 Jan 2017 1009.43 1008.75 -18.51 1.78 -0.12

[vbhoutex]

I remember that early 1989 freeze very well. I flew to Winter Park, CO for a ski trip during the outbreak. First morning I was there, the temperature got down to -42F. I had to rush outside and see what that felt like (after putting on 20 layers of clothes). Sky was clear that day, and not a breath of wind. Had the whole mountain to ourselves. Sat outside at a mid-mountain restaurant at lunch and unzipped our coats. It was a hit 0F by then. Didn't need ice in my drink, as it was freezing over as I ate. Only "problem" we had was that we had to make sure we covered any patch of skin (or body part) that we wanted to keep...

Back to the present, big storms firing to my southwest. I've already measured nearly 9" of rain this month. Don't really need any more. Could get some heavy storms in the Houston area around 5pm-7pm.

First round/storm is thundering in on my side of town. We're up to around 5" of rain at our house about 10 miles North of you. Am I right to be a little concerned about how rough this may get? It is obvious to me that the "front' has moved North of my location near I-10 and Katy freeway and that is what causes me the concern as the impulses move along the front.
Update: 3:30 cst: Heavy downpour in progress with lightning and thunder. Wow, that quickly escalated into hail up to dime size and winds gusting around 35-40 mph. Just called it into NWS.

[srainhoutx]

Storms approaching SE Texas are rather low topped (10,000 to 15,000 ft) and have been producing 1 to 1.5 inch per hour rainfall rates with the stronger cells. Reports earlier of some isolated dime size hail down near Corpus.

[wxman57]

Storms haven't been too bad, so far. They're just about past SW Houston. Only about 1/4 of an inch of rain. They are moving fast, no training.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Recorded 1.17" so far in Sugar Land so far. Was seeing 4.4" an hour for a bit, which is calculated over about a 12 minute period. Not so severe though just very dark and very heavy rain.

[Cpv17]

Here at my house around Wharton we received 2.6" in just under 40 minutes. That brings our total up to 9" since Wednesday morning.

[wxman57]

Looks like .98" total rainfall. That makes nearly 10" for the month so far.

[Texas Snow]

No rain up here today but the residual runoff has officially filled Cedar Creek Lake this evening. I'm a happy man! Just need to keep normal amounts into June and the entire summer is set.

Heck, if he will allow a February snow I'll invite wxman57 up for a long country bike ride followed by some boating. But no flurry crap, real multi-inch snow.

[aggiecutter]

TWC Breaking ‏@TWCBreaking 32m32 minutes ago
Tornado Warning for Jefferson and Orange Counties in TX until 8:45 PM CST http://www.weather.com/weather/alerts/l ... H&etn=0006 …

[TexasF6]

Tornado kills 4 in Hattiesburgh Mississppi this AM. City suffered substantial damage. Pray for them. They went enhanced risk late last night.....


City of Hattiesburg
‏@Hattiesburg_MS

Hattiesburg Firefighters and Police going door-to-door to rescue tornado victims

[TexasF6]

Hattiesburg Storm Spotter raw footage

https://www.facebook.com/branden.m.walk ... 616468607/

[wxman57]

No rain up here today but the residual runoff has officially filled Cedar Creek Lake this evening. I'm a happy man! Just need to keep normal amounts into June and the entire summer is set.

Heck, if he will allow a February snow I'll invite wxman57 up for a long country bike ride followed by some boating. But no flurry crap, real multi-inch snow.

I'll see what I can do. Last time I rode up there was in 1989, when I rode the "Hotter 'N' Hell Hundred" up in Wichita Falls. Finally, a ride that catered to me.

Finished yesterday with 1.88" of rain, making the total so far this month 10.27". Ready for some dry wind tomorrow.

[Portastorm]

Wishing ... hoping ... praying ...

free upload image

[Ntxw]

With the way the GEFS and EPS are going I still think late Jan/early Feb 1989 analog is a good one. It also fits the character of the winter that has been so far, look for an arctic blast first week or so of Feb, not unlike what we have seen in early Jan. The fly in the ointment is SSW, how it effects the pattern (if any) is yet to be seen. Still no definitive sign of -AO. But the Pacific driven blocking looks likely here as we round out January.

[bubba hotep]

With the way the GEFS and EPS are going I still think late Jan/early Feb 1989 analog is a good one. It also fits the character of the winter that has been so far, look for an arctic blast first week or so of Feb, not unlike what we have seen in early Jan. The fly in the ointment is SSW, how it effects the pattern (if any) is yet to be seen. Still no definitive sign of -AO. But the Pacific driven blocking looks likely here as we round out January.

I don't know, the southern ridge keeps trending stronger. Zonal flow with the cold bleeding out east and never dropping south is getting to be a concern.