Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Tyler]

The 6Z GFS is out, and here is a look at a few interesting things:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml
^^Severe weather Wednesday night^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml
^^Looks like a "cooler" weekend on tap^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml
^^Incoming arctic airmass..check out the next link to see the result^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml
^^Brrr..^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml
^^Winter weather in TX in 312 hrs.^^

So now it's the weekend of the 11th before it gets really cold?

<not surprised>

Brent, what in the wide world of sports are you talking about? It has been delayed back in the middle of January, but now for the past week everything has remained on the same track. If you have been reading discussions in this thread, you would have seen that by now.

[Johnny]

If it's like December, then that's cold enough for me. At my house, I got a morning temp of 11 one day and at least 1 day it didn't get above 32. And we had freezing rain and sleet. That's plenty cold enough for me.

Give me two or three days of that here in Southeast, Texas and I'll consider it an arctic outbreak.

[Cookiely]

00
FXUS62 KTBW 310840
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
340 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THU)...UPPER LEVEL JET WAS ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH/ WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CAROLINAS/ OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SUB-TROPICAL JET WAS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF FL. AT THE SURFACE YESTERDAY`S FRONT WAS NOW EXITING THE
SOUTH END OF CWFA...TAKING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER AND
WEST OF LEE COUNTY WITH IT. A SECONDARY FRONT IS PUSHING OVER THE
CWFA WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS OVER TAMPA BAY. THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND WILL EXIT THE AREA AROUND DAY BREAK.
TO THE WEST...WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST REACHING THE SE U.S. COAST LATE DAY
WED AND THEN OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THU. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST
AND PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTH THU AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE LAST PCPN EXITS AROUND SUNRISE AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS CLEAR
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH BEFORE NOON THE FORECAST STAYS CLEAR/SUNNY...
DRY...AND COOL UP UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THU ALONG
WITH ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
TO STAY BELOW CLIMO TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE CLIMBING BACK UP TO
NEAR CLIMO WED AFTERNOON INTO THU AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES BY TO
THE NORTH...ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER FROM NE TO SOUTHERLY
AND TAP SOME WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR. TONIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT WITH THE LOWEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE LOCALIZE AREAS
FROM KBKV TO LEVY COUNTY COULD BRIEFLY HIT THE FREEZING MARK. LIMITED
DURATION AND AREAL COVERAGE DO NOT SUPPORT ANY ADVISORIES OR WATCHES.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...MAYBE, JUST MAYBE, THERE IS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. AFTER ALL...IT`S BEEN A
VERY QUIET WINTER WITH BOUTS OF SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOLLOWED BY
A FEW NICE DAYS...THEN BACK TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOL AIR...ETC.
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS NOT ALLOWED ANY PARTICULAR
PATTERN TO "SETTLE IN"...AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 7.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME DEGREE OF WINTER WILL
RETURN TO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. THIS MAY BE
CORRELATED TO A RECENT RETURN OF THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)...WHICH HAD BEEN POSITIVE FOR ALL OF
JANUARY UNTIL JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.

THAT SAID...NEGATIVE NAO PHASES DO NOT ALWAYS CORRELATE TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE PENINSULA...THOUGH THE LAST TWO BOUTS
(END OF OCTOBER AND MUCH OF DECEMBER) DID. BUT...IT HAS BEEN
UNUSUALLY WARM ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD NORTH OF FLORIDA
THIS JANUARY...AND THE SYSTEM MAY BE THE MECHANISM TO TURN THE
CURRENT PATTERN ON ITS HEAD...WITH A QUICK CHANGE TO NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OFTEN...SUCH SYSTEMS ARE LARGE IN AREA AND
STRONG IN EFFECT (JANUARY 2ND-4TH 1999 COMES TO MIND) AND ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT TO POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER QUIET...THOUGH THE LATEST TWO GFS RUNS
HAVE RAMPED UP CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAINS THURSDAY
EVENING WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
FOR THE MOST PART. FRIDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND RATHER HUMID WITH A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SOME SUNSHINE ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO.

THINGS BEGIN TO GET INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS
DEEPENING 500 MB TROUGH HEADS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
STRENGTHENS FURTHER THEREAFTER WHILE POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF ANYWHERE
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW
ENGLAND AREA. WHILE SUNDAY`S 18Z GFS APPEARED TO BE AN
ABERRATION...THE MOST RECENT THREE RUNS HAVE TRENDED BACK THAT
DIRECTION. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS DEEP AND A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE...STILL...BUT THEY ARE TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER
SOLUTION.

SO...FOR NOW HAVE RAMPED UP JUST A LITTLE BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT NOT SO MUCH AS TO ADVERTISE THE GFS SOLUTION
COMPLETELY...AT LEAST NOT YET. THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM THIS
EVENT WILL BE AN INITIAL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS WITH POSSIBLE GALES. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED
THUNDER AND BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP A HAIR ON SATURDAY...AND
BROUGHT WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE 25 KT/10 FOOT RANGE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

WILL DETAIL JUST A LITTLE IN THIS MORNING`S OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...THINGS QUIET DOWN QUICKLY ON SUNDAY BUT WITH COOL AND
PERHAPS BRISK CONDITIONS. NOT SURE I WANT TO BUY OFF ON THE SUBZERO
850 MB TEMPS WHICH COULD HOLD AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...SO HAVE ONLY ADJUSTED VALUES DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. NEXT MONDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

[Tyler]

Very nice discussion from Tampa Bay, and they are right on the money.

FYI folks,

12z Euro at day 7 (next tuesday) is showing an at or above 1040MB high in central Canada, diving south, bringing very cold air with it, and a ridge on the west coast. GFS is also very encouraging in the extended. Cold pattern, here we come! The warmth across the lower 48 is about to come to a close, so I would enjoy it while it lasts... We can now finally see the light, and its not 10 days away!

[Portastorm]

I know I can kick that football .... I KNOW IT!!!

[southerngale]

I know it's been warmer than average during the day but most nights have been quite chilly. It was 38° here last night. Not an Arctic outbreak by any stretch of the imagination, but not exactly toasty either.

[millerblizzard1]

Dry air cools quickly. Like in a desert. I have been in the 60's during the day and in the upper 20's each night. Nearly a 40 degree raise every day!!!

[Brent]

Brent, what in the wide world of sports are you talking about? It has been delayed back in the middle of January, but now for the past week everything has remained on the same track. If you have been reading discussions in this thread, you would have seen that by now.

Not exactly. It was originally going to get very cold this weekend, now it just "cools down" with the really cold air delayed another week.

[Cookiely]

Dry air cools quickly. Like in a desert. I have been in the 60's during the day and in the upper 20's each night. Nearly a 40 degree raise every day!!!

I don't believe my tendons and bones could take a differential like that.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Very nice discussion from Tampa Bay, and they are right on the money.

FYI folks,

12z Euro at day 7 (next tuesday) is showing an at or above 1040MB high in central Canada, diving south, bringing very cold air with it, and a ridge on the west coast. GFS is also very encouraging in the extended. Cold pattern, here we come! The warmth across the lower 48 is about to come to a close, so I would enjoy it while it lasts... We can now finally see the light, and its not 10 days away!

Are the Texas NWS office totaly asleep or what? When Tampa and other offices in the south start talking about a pattern change, our NWS offices sit by the computer and take every run of the GFS as gospel without looking at other models.

[jasons2k]

Very nice discussion from Tampa Bay, and they are right on the money.

FYI folks,

12z Euro at day 7 (next tuesday) is showing an at or above 1040MB high in central Canada, diving south, bringing very cold air with it, and a ridge on the west coast. GFS is also very encouraging in the extended. Cold pattern, here we come! The warmth across the lower 48 is about to come to a close, so I would enjoy it while it lasts... We can now finally see the light, and its not 10 days away!

Are the Texas NWS office totaly asleep or what? When Tampa and other offices in the south start talking about a pattern change, our NWS offices sit by the computer and take every run of the GFS as gospel without looking at other models.

Because at this time, it looks like most of the cold air will go east of Texas, hence, the lack of interest.

[Tyler]

Very nice discussion from Tampa Bay, and they are right on the money.

FYI folks,

12z Euro at day 7 (next tuesday) is showing an at or above 1040MB high in central Canada, diving south, bringing very cold air with it, and a ridge on the west coast. GFS is also very encouraging in the extended. Cold pattern, here we come! The warmth across the lower 48 is about to come to a close, so I would enjoy it while it lasts... We can now finally see the light, and its not 10 days away!

Are the Texas NWS office totaly asleep or what? When Tampa and other offices in the south start talking about a pattern change, our NWS offices sit by the computer and take every run of the GFS as gospel without looking at other models.

Midland/Odessa mentioned the pattern change yesterday I think. However, I think most offices around here are concentrating on the severe weather tommorow. After that threat is over with, I bet they'll take a better look at the long-range.

[Tyler]

Very nice discussion from Tampa Bay, and they are right on the money.

FYI folks,

12z Euro at day 7 (next tuesday) is showing an at or above 1040MB high in central Canada, diving south, bringing very cold air with it, and a ridge on the west coast. GFS is also very encouraging in the extended. Cold pattern, here we come! The warmth across the lower 48 is about to come to a close, so I would enjoy it while it lasts... We can now finally see the light, and its not 10 days away!

Are the Texas NWS office totaly asleep or what? When Tampa and other offices in the south start talking about a pattern change, our NWS offices sit by the computer and take every run of the GFS as gospel without looking at other models.

Because at this time, it looks like most of the cold air will go east of Texas, hence, the lack of interest.

That is not entirely correct. If I may ask, what model guidance are you looking at to suggest this? 12z Euro says its diving south, and the GFS also below average temperatures next week. And anyway, it WAY too early to see who will get what, after the pattern change this weekend, the coldest air will still be a couple of days away.

[jasons2k]

Very nice discussion from Tampa Bay, and they are right on the money.

FYI folks,

12z Euro at day 7 (next tuesday) is showing an at or above 1040MB high in central Canada, diving south, bringing very cold air with it, and a ridge on the west coast. GFS is also very encouraging in the extended. Cold pattern, here we come! The warmth across the lower 48 is about to come to a close, so I would enjoy it while it lasts... We can now finally see the light, and its not 10 days away!

Are the Texas NWS office totaly asleep or what? When Tampa and other offices in the south start talking about a pattern change, our NWS offices sit by the computer and take every run of the GFS as gospel without looking at other models.

Because at this time, it looks like most of the cold air will go east of Texas, hence, the lack of interest.

That is not entirely correct. If I may ask, what model guidance are you looking at to suggest this? 12z Euro says its diving south, and the GFS also below average temperatures next week. And anyway, it WAY too early to see who will get what, after the pattern change this weekend, the coldest air will still be a couple of days away.

Oh, I agree 110% it's WAY to early to know anything for certain. I think I've been pounding away at that one pretty good. I really don't buy into anything beyond 5 days.

To be honest, I haven't looked at any of the new guidance today, been too busy at work. But most of what I have seen the last few days (and what some have said about today's runs) isn't much different than what I posted last week in my pros/cons post. It does look like the pattern is changing but unless the block that develops near Hudson Bay is centered further west I don't look for a direct delivery of arctic air into Texas, just a brushing as it passes to the East. Also with the ridge to the west and a split flow with the jet undercutting the ridge, that still leaves us in mostly a zonal flow, which again isn't an ideal setup for us.

ALSO, FWIW, I'm not convinced even when this cold pattern evolves there will still be the same kind of dramatic cold around that we've all been referring to the last 2 weeks or so.

What I'm looking for is something like a day-5 map with a 1040+ high over, say Dodge City, plunging south. Don't see it yet. And we prob. won't any time soon.

[Tyler]

Oh, I agree 110% it's WAY to early to know anything for certain. I think I've been pounding away at that one pretty good. I really don't buy into anything beyond 5 days.

To be honest, I haven't looked at any of the new guidance today, been too busy at work. But most of what I have seen the last few days (and what some have said about today's runs) isn't much different than what I posted last week in my pros/cons post. It does look like the pattern is changing but unless the block that develops near Hudson Bay is centered further west I don't look for a direct delivery of arctic air into Texas, just a brushing as it passes to the East. Also with the ridge to the west and a split flow with the jet undercutting the ridge, that still leaves us in mostly a zonal flow, which again isn't an ideal setup for us.

ALSO, FWIW, I'm not convinced even when this cold pattern evolves there will still be the same kind of dramatic cold around that we've all been referring to the last 2 weeks or so.

What I'm looking for is something like a day-5 map with a 1040+ high over, say Dodge City, plunging south. Don't see it yet. And we prob. won't any time soon.

Ok, thanks for the explanation! Very good points! I agree, that setup you explained would not be ideal for us.

But, the models are very encouraging, no doubt. On the EURO day 7 map, it shows a 1040MB+ high over central Canada, diving south. Perhaps we'll see that high over dodge city sooner than you think...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Brent, what in the wide world of sports are you talking about? It has been delayed back in the middle of January, but now for the past week everything has remained on the same track. If you have been reading discussions in this thread, you would have seen that by now.

Not exactly. It was originally going to get very cold this weekend, now it just "cools down" with the really cold air delayed another week.

We actually have been pinpointing the week (not day) of the 5th to be the changing point, and the 11th is within that week. This weekend still may be a start to the change though.

[Air Force Met]

Brent, what in the wide world of sports are you talking about? It has been delayed back in the middle of January, but now for the past week everything has remained on the same track. If you have been reading discussions in this thread, you would have seen that by now.

Not exactly. It was originally going to get very cold this weekend, now it just "cools down" with the really cold air delayed another week.

We actually have been pinpointing the week (not day) of the 5th to be the changing point, and the 11th is within that week. This weekend still may be a start to the change though.

I agree...that's what I thought. Originally it was supposed to get cold this weekend but that was two weeks ago. We've been talking about this current pattern for a week....and the 5th has been mentioned as the kickoff point for a long while. The ridge starts building on the 7th...and that's the way it has been for 5-6 days...and the 11th is also the way it's been for a while.

Hey Brent...I think you've missed some conversations Yes originally it was...but that changed a while back. What makes this different is the Canadian and Euro also see it...and so does the gov't folks.

I still think the bulk of the cold air is going east though.

[Portastorm]

Well if the split flow pattern develops and verifies -- like the NCEP ensembles suggest -- it (the bulk of the cold air) would have to be east of the southern Plains/Texas wouldn't it? Otherwise, we'd have phasing and a full-scale trough covering much of the nation east of the Rockies.

[Tyler]

I agree...that's what I thought. Originally it was supposed to get cold this weekend but that was two weeks ago. We've been talking about this current pattern for a week....and the 5th has been mentioned as the kickoff point for a long while. The ridge starts building on the 7th...and that's the way it has been for 5-6 days...and the 11th is also the way it's been for a while.

Hey Brent...I think you've missed some conversations Yes originally it was...but that changed a while back. What makes this different is the Canadian and Euro also see it...and so does the gov't folks.

I still think the bulk of the cold air is going east though.

AFM,

Just wondering, what makes you think its going east? The EURO shows the cold air diving south, courtesy a 1040MB high in south-central Canada. IMO, I think its too early to say who gets what.

And for what its worth, the 18z GFS shows the bulk of it diving south as well...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Actually, the 18Z shows the bulk of the air initially heading east, but in the day 15 period it shows it heading south. As of now, I feel that the bulk of the cold for this upcoming pattern change goes east, but I do however think that even if it does it will get colder here. I feel that we will see many cloudy, breezy and cold days between Feb. 5th and 25th, and I do predict that Houston sees (at least) one hard freeze during that time period. I also expect that during that time period that above normal temps. will be non-existant. We will probably have a prolonged period of below normal temps. I also expect that we may set ourselves up for a few winter weather threats. Though it may not be brutally cold..there will be a lot of southern stream moisture to work with and I think that we may see an ice or ice/snow mix event during the time period. Of course, my ideas will continue to change over the course of the next couple of weeks and there is certaintly a possibility of the cold air spilling straight southward. As for me, I don't wish for extreme cold, but a nice winter weather event with temps. hovering around 32 would be nice. Either way, this will be a MAJOR change from what we have seen over the last 4-5+ weeks and it will be a shock to all those who do not read these posts on storm2k or who are not watching the weather trends. The average, non-weather minded Houstonion will most likely be thrown off guard when this change occurs and the jackets will all have to be pulled back out.