Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4001 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:13 pm

Basically the 18z GFS on Winter Storms:
Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/ANOTHER-ONE.gif
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4002 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:18 pm

WPC has this

 https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1487885041954967554


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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4003 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:25 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Basically the 18z GFS on Winter Storms:
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/ANOTHER-ONE.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/ANOTHER-ONE.gif


:double: :double: :double: :spam: :spam:

What a first half of February this would be

Image
Last edited by Brent on Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4004 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:27 pm

Brent wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Basically the 18z GFS on Winter Storms:
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/ANOTHER-ONE.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/ANOTHER-ONE.gif


:double: :double: :double:

What a first half of February this would be

https://i.ibb.co/d0Rk2Jg/gfs-asnow24-scus-36.png


No "spam" on that one right Brent...Lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4005 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:28 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Basically the 18z GFS on Winter Storms:
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/ANOTHER-ONE.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/ANOTHER-ONE.gif


:double: :double: :double:

What a first half of February this would be

https://i.ibb.co/d0Rk2Jg/gfs-asnow24-scus-36.png


No "spam" on that one right Brent...Lol.


Is that better :lol: :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4006 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:29 pm

Brent wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Brent wrote:
:double: :double: :double:

What a first half of February this would be

https://i.ibb.co/d0Rk2Jg/gfs-asnow24-scus-36.png


No "spam" on that one right Brent...Lol.


Is that better :lol: :lol:


Hope that locks in for you buddy.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4007 Postby WinterMax » Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:32 pm

I love reading this forum the last couple of days, it's almost like being on the edge of my seat for the 384th frame of the GFS. LOL
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4008 Postby Captmorg70 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:58 pm

WinterMax wrote:I love reading this forum the last couple of days, it's almost like being on the edge of my seat for the 384th frame of the GFS. LOL


I expect tonight to be pretty busy on the forum, but tomorrow night could be nuts when everything is really getting into range for the storm.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4009 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:59 pm

Hmm, would I perfer sleet or very cold rain? That's a hard one. Sleet doesn't get you wet, so that's a plus. I'd take a high of 100F any day over either one. Keep in mind that the Euro was by far the worst model for last year's big cold front.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4010 Postby WinterMax » Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:05 pm

wxman57 wrote:Hmm, would I perfer sleet or very cold rain? That's a hard one. Sleet doesn't get you wet, so that's a plus. I'd take a high of 100F any day over either one. Keep in mind that the Euro was by far the worst model for last year's big cold front. I wouldn't pay much attention to it. The Euro doesn't even have below-freezing temps for SE TX. Sounds good to me, but I don't buy it.



Im forecasting a half inch of Snow for Dallas, hope I'm not over estimating
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4011 Postby Snowman67 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:Hmm, would I perfer sleet or very cold rain? That's a hard one. Sleet doesn't get you wet, so that's a plus. I'd take a high of 100F any day over either one. Keep in mind that the Euro was by far the worst model for last year's big cold front. I wouldn't pay much attention to it. The Euro doesn't even have below-freezing temps for SE TX. Sounds good to me, but I don't buy it.


I'll take that as "sleet" for your answer :wink: These shallow arctic fronts so often give the models fits even 3-4 days out...
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4012 Postby EnnisTx » Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:12 pm

WinterMax wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Hmm, would I perfer sleet or very cold rain? That's a hard one. Sleet doesn't get you wet, so that's a plus. I'd take a high of 100F any day over either one. Keep in mind that the Euro was by far the worst model for last year's big cold front. I wouldn't pay much attention to it. The Euro doesn't even have below-freezing temps for SE TX. Sounds good to me, but I don't buy it.



Im forecasting a half inch of Snow for Dallas, hope I'm not over estimating


Why don’t you share how you come to that conclusion?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4013 Postby CaptinCrunch » Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:13 pm

Right now I would say .15" to .25" of freezing rain, then 1.0" - 1.5" of sleet before the transition to snow adding another 1-3" on top of that. This is for DFW and surrounding counties. :cold: :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4014 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:19 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Right now I would say .15" to .25" of freezing rain, then 1.0" - 1.5" of sleet before the transition to snow adding another 1-3" on top of that. This is for DFW and surrounding counties. :cold: :froze:

That sounds very reasonable as a region average. In this setup someone in N TX could jackpot into 6 plus inches of snow easily under the heavy band Thursday morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4015 Postby EnnisTx » Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:24 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:Right now I would say .15" to .25" of freezing rain, then 1.0" - 1.5" of sleet before the transition to snow adding another 1-3" on top of that. This is for DFW and surrounding counties. :cold: :froze:

That sounds very reasonable as a region average. In this setup someone in N TX could jackpot into 6 plus inches of snow easily under the heavy band Thursday morning.


I like it as well, I’m thinking an I 20 corridor jackpot.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4016 Postby Haris » Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:27 pm

Image
Image

Euro fills the dry hole
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4017 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:27 pm

The Euro glitch has been corrected….

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4018 Postby TropicalTundra » Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:30 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Right now I would say .15" to .25" of freezing rain, then 1.0" - 1.5" of sleet before the transition to snow adding another 1-3" on top of that. This is for DFW and surrounding counties. :cold: :froze:


What about for me? A dusting at most? :cry:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4019 Postby Golf7270 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:43 pm


Orangeblood, could you post that image of 18z euro further east for me please?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4020 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:46 pm

Golf7270 wrote:

Orangeblood, could you post that image of 18z euro further east for me please?


Here you go, 18Z only goes out to Thursday 6am Central

Image
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