Texas Winter 2016-2017

[orangeblood]

Orangeblood, do you think we get back into a -epo/wpo setup soon? I think that would give us a better chance at some colder air and perhaps a winter event. What are your thoughts on everything?

Unfortunately, trends haven't been looking good over the past couple of days...there appears to be a dominant indice this winter and that's the PNA - it has almost been entirely negative since the fall and doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon, pumping the southeast ridge continuously and not allowing any sustained cold snaps (although The West is having a field day this winter because of that indice). The only chance I think we'll have is for the SSW to do work on the AO, forcing the Polar Jet much further south. The long awaited SSW event should happen toward the end of the week, we'll know much more in the next week or so

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Had some hail at my place in Missouri City earlier, reported it to Matt Lanza on twitter. It was pea sized hail, more storms are firing up around here though.

[TexasF6]

My weather hero, my mentor as a kid, and family friend Connor Vernon, of KTBC CBS Channel 7 Fame in Austin, Texas, passed away last night from a heart attack. Pray for his wife Mrs. Sue. And me. He did so much for my life. May he rest in peace.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Wow, that brief storm in DFW dropped .33" of rain at my house in less than 15 minutes.

[weatherdude1108]

I think West Texas has come to visit today. 45-50mph gusts!


"Wind Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
739 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-230000-
/O.CON.KEWX.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170123T0000Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LLANO, BURNET, GEORGETOWN, DEL RIO,
ROCKSPRINGS, LEAKEY, KERRVILLE, BANDERA, FREDERICKSBURG, BOERNE,
BLANCO, SAN MARCOS, AUSTIN, BASTROP, GIDDINGS, BRACKETVILLE,
UVALDE, HONDO, SAN ANTONIO, NEW BRAUNFELS, SEGUIN, LOCKHART,
LA GRANGE, EAGLE PASS, CRYSTAL CITY, PEARSALL, PLEASANTON,
FLORESVILLE, KARNES CITY, GONZALES, CUERO, HALLETSVILLE,
AND CARRIZO SPRINGS
739 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...NOW THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY BE DIFFICULT. HIGH
WINDS COULD DISPLACE LOOSE OBJECTS AND COULD RESULT IN MINOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 26 TO 39 MPH WITH
STRONGER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA
CAUTION.

&&

$$

[Snowman67]

My weather hero, my mentor as a kid, and family friend Connor Vernon, of KTBC CBS Channel 7 Fame in Austin, Texas, passed away last night from a heart attack. Pray for his wife Mrs. Sue. And me. He did so much for my life. May he rest in peace.

Sorry to hear this F6. Prayers being sent.

[Cpv17]

Does anyone think we'll be in for more severe weather over the next few weeks/months? I mean if it's this bad in January, wouldn't it be even worse during the spring? Any sort of relation there? Hard to believe the SPC has issued a high risk for severe weather today especially being in January. Not sure if I've ever recalled that.

[Portastorm]

I wish I had a happier post this morning ... but ... in looking at the calendar, those of us south of Waco probably have six weeks of winter "opportunity" left. And in looking at the models I see no signs of encouragement for the next two weeks. Whatever sporadic GFS run which showed snow this far south has been just that ... sporadic at best. Nothing consistent. That leaves a thin margin of four weeks.

I'm sure not going to Vegas with those odds.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I wish I had a happier post this morning ... but ... in looking at the calendar, those of us south of Waco probably have six weeks of winter "opportunity" left. And in looking at the models I see no signs of encouragement for the next two weeks. Whatever sporadic GFS run which showed snow this far south has been just that ... sporadic at best. Nothing consistent. That leaves a thin margin of four weeks.

I'm sure not going to Vegas with those odds.

"Winters" just don't seem what they used to be.

[bubba hotep]

Wow... the Euro EPS from last night was down right depressing for the DFW area. Little in the way of precipitation and basically no freezes through the 1st week of Feb.

[Ntxw]

SPC has a high risk in southern Georgia and Northern Florida. Don't see that everyday in Jan. For us +PNA mostly boring NW flow with dry fronts. Nothing spectacular the next week or so. Bring back the -PNA

[TheProfessor]

I woke up to 60 degree weather this morning and seeing the a PDS tornado watch had been issued for the Southeast. Thought I slept for 2.5 months at first.

[Brent]

I'm starting to countdown to spring now lol

[WeatherGuesser]

Does anyone think we'll be in for more severe weather over the next few weeks/months? I mean if it's this bad in January, wouldn't it be even worse during the spring? Any sort of relation there? Hard to believe the SPC has issued a high risk for severe weather today especially being in January. Not sure if I've ever recalled that.

I made a passing reference to that on the Severe thread.

[srainhoutx]

I wish I had a happier post this morning ... but ... in looking at the calendar, those of us south of Waco probably have six weeks of winter "opportunity" left. And in looking at the models I see no signs of encouragement for the next two weeks. Whatever sporadic GFS run which showed snow this far south has been just that ... sporadic at best. Nothing consistent. That leaves a thin margin of four weeks.

I'm sure not going to Vegas with those odds.

It's been my experience when we see such violent and unusual weather from Coast to Coast in late January, the entire Hemispheric Pattern buckles. Be careful with that early Winter cancelled call. February may hold more surprises than any model or Meteorologists May think...wink

[Brent]

the next freeze on the GFS at DFW continues to get pushed back... now it's again 2 weeks out. Remember when it was this week?

Euro doesn't have one either through 240 hours

[WeatherGuesser]

It's been my experience when we see such violent and unusual weather from Coast to Coast in late January, the entire Hemispheric Pattern buckles. Be careful with that early Winter cancelled call. February may hold more surprises than any model or Meteorologists May think...wink

I've seen some nasty winter weather in late February and early March. The perceived 'season shift' has been noted on this board a few times before.

[orangeblood]

SPC has a high risk in southern Georgia and Northern Florida. Don't see that everyday in Jan. For us +PNA mostly boring NW flow with dry fronts. Nothing spectacular the next week or so. Bring back the -PNA

If we want to increase our odds of winter weather, don't you think we need to get rid of this pesky negative PNA ??? We are almost 4 Deg F above normal so far this winter with very minimal chances of frozen precip...need a pattern change quickly!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So the Hudson block we had went bye bye, now it looks like the massive -EPO timing is off, at least models dont see it in the next two weeks now. I still think if the SSW event is occurring that the -EPO event happens after the the first week of Feb.

Forecast for Colorado next week looks like no snow right now, i need that to change

[Ptarmigan]

I wish I had a happier post this morning ... but ... in looking at the calendar, those of us south of Waco probably have six weeks of winter "opportunity" left. And in looking at the models I see no signs of encouragement for the next two weeks. Whatever sporadic GFS run which showed snow this far south has been just that ... sporadic at best. Nothing consistent. That leaves a thin margin of four weeks.

I'm sure not going to Vegas with those odds.

It's been my experience when we see such violent and unusual weather from Coast to Coast in late January, the entire Hemispheric Pattern buckles. Be careful with that early Winter cancelled call. February may hold more surprises than any model or Meteorologists May think...wink

I have seen pretty big cold blasts in February and even into March.