Texas Winter 2013-2014

TeamPlayersBlue · #4041 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 8:12 pm

Storms this winter have just been avoiding California at all costs lol

#4042 Postby **Tireman4** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 8:15 pm

[quote="Ntxw"]I have to reiterate, this thing is still out in the Pacific ocean. The models do not have an understanding on where it's going to move and how strong it will be. On top of that there will be a northern stream energy that will mingle with the storm. What you see now possibly and most likely will change, the ensembles and models are too variable. And to add more into the confusion there is vorticity and "stuff" to the east of Hawaii and west of Baja and will play a role as well (or may not).

Yes. As usual, you are right on the money sir. This is ever evolving. Even Wxman 57, the Heat Miser ( Or Blowtorch..

) said he would wait until the 12Z Thursday before committing to this event. Bear watch in place.

KatDaddy · #4043 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 8:38 pm

Here is the active Pacific that Ntxw speaks of. Perhaps by Wednesday afternoon we will have a better idea on what may unfold.

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perk · #4044 Postby **perk** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 8:48 pm

My local NWS has wintry mix in the forecast for my area Thursday night and Friday.

#4045 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:04 pm

Safe to say that tonight's 0z model runs are the most anticipated model run sets on this forum since ... well ... it's been awhile!

I'm waiting on the 21z SREF to finish out. The 15z run had some "interesting" frames towards the end of its run.

#4046 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:08 pm

Portastorm wrote:Safe to say that tonight's 0z model runs are the most anticipated model run sets on this forum since ... well ... it's been awhile!

I'm waiting on the 21z SREF to finish out. The 15z run had some "interesting" frames towards the end of its run.

Ah yes, clicking back and forth or refresh the page to get NCEP to show the next frame that may or may not be exciting. Watching our little patch of home light up with greens and the passage of the blue 0c line. Only to get frustrated NCEP is too slow so we try to find another outlet that is much faster! The addiction that is snow...

#4047 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:18 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Safe to say that tonight's 0z model runs are the most anticipated model run sets on this forum since ... well ... it's been awhile!

I'm waiting on the 21z SREF to finish out. The 15z run had some "interesting" frames towards the end of its run.

Ah yes, clicking back and forth or refresh the page to get NCEP to show the next frame that may or may not be exciting. Watching our little patch of home light up with greens and the passage of the blue 0c line. Only to get frustrated NCEP is too slow so we try to find another outlet that is much faster! The addiction that is snow...

Hey, where else can you look at "models" online and not get in trouble with your wife? :lol:

TeamPlayersBlue · #4048 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:22 pm

Low of 29, wintry mix for Thursday night for Sugar Land

#4049 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:27 pm

Portastorm wrote:Safe to say that tonight's 0z model runs are the most anticipated model run sets on this forum since ... well ... it's been awhile!

I'm waiting on the 21z SREF to finish out. The 15z run had some "interesting" frames towards the end of its run.

Fun times are back at Storm2k! I love it when we are highly anticipating model runs! If only we could do this more often!

perk · #4050 Postby **perk** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:32 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Low of 29, wintry mix for Thursday night for Sugar Land

Low of 28 with wintry mix in Richmond.

#4051 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:40 pm

0z NAM teases Portastorm but unfortunately runs out of frames! Where is that DGEX extension when you need it??

WeatherNewbie · #4052 Postby **WeatherNewbie** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:40 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Safe to say that tonight's 0z model runs are the most anticipated model run sets on this forum since ... well ... it's been awhile!

I'm waiting on the 21z SREF to finish out. The 15z run had some "interesting" frames towards the end of its run.

Ah yes, clicking back and forth or refresh the page to get NCEP to show the next frame that may or may not be exciting. Watching our little patch of home light up with greens and the passage of the blue 0c line. Only to get frustrated NCEP is too slow so we try to find another outlet that is much faster! The addiction that is snow...

Hey, where else can you look at "models" online and not get in trouble with your wife?

I don't care who you are... that's funny.

#4053 Postby **Rgv20** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:40 pm

Portastorm wrote:Safe to say that tonight's 0z model runs are the most anticipated model run sets on this forum since ... well ... it's been awhile!

I'm waiting on the 21z SREF to finish out. The 15z run had some "interesting" frames towards the end of its run.

21zSREF indeed does look interesting...Look at these probability maps for late Thursday Night/Early Friday Morning..

#4054 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:44 pm

More importantly even though it's La La land nam, look at the coast of Mexico

#4055 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:45 pm

Ntxw wrote:0z NAM teases Portastorm but unfortunately runs out of frames! Where is that DGEX extension when you need it??

I know ... why can't the NAM go out to 96 hours!

Well, what is of interest is the precip shield per the 0z NAM seems a bit earlier in onset and more aggressive (expanse wise) than previous runs.

stormlover2013 · #4056 Postby **stormlover2013** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:48 pm

What is nam showing for south east texas?

#4057 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:54 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:What is nam showing for south east texas?

Light sleet in SE Texas along with Austin and the hill country. Light snow is breaking out in the Permian basin but I do warn it is 84hr NAM.

stormlover2013 · #4058 Postby **stormlover2013** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:59 pm

Lol I hear you on that!!!

#4059 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:05 pm

The 21z SREF is encouraging for south central Texas in terms of P-type ... no doubt about it. But the precip amounts are light. At least thru 87 hours.

Onward lads and ladies to the 0z GFS and Euro!

#4060 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:06 pm

Portastorm wrote:The 21z SREF is encouraging for south central Texas in terms of P-type ... no doubt about it. But the precip amounts are light. At least thru 87 hours. Amounts look heavier from San Antonio to Del Rio.

Onward lads and ladies to the 0z GFS and Euro!

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