Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

I don't doubt that the best of the arctic air will be gone by then but I don't see much to support a flip to a zonal torch. The MJO is forecast to be rolling through P3 by then and that should favor a mean SW trough. We could see a temp spike before any given storm system but that would be followed by a rapid cool down. Also, we are getting to the point in the winter that we don't need big cold anomalies to our north to get a winter storm in Texas. We just need seasonably cold air and the right timing. FWD Dallas office does great work and they will probably be right but we can hope they are wrong about a return to zonal flow.

Warmth is always two weeks out winter? I don't see zonal flow either, in fact I think we may go split flow which is great for precipitation events. Jan 10th-15th may feature another cold blast per the GEFS

[gpsnowman]

The ULL on Mon/Tue, is this the ULL on the models a couple days ago trekking through central and southeast Texas with some precip and then disappeared? That could be a sneaky event with the cold still in place, like Ntwx said. Here's hoping.

[gpsnowman]

Weird. In the last hour the temp on my phone has dropped 3 degrees from 40 to 37. If the clouds don't clear it will be difficult to reach the high of 49 today.

[Tireman4]

Well, as much as I would love to stay and enjoy the cold, me and the family are going on a cruise to points in the Gulf of Mexico. I will try and check in with reeports from locales above 75 degrees. We leave Saturday and come back next Saturday

[wxman22]

I just don't trust the model's dry solution for Monday/Tuesday the energy looks too vigorous to not trigger at least light precip, but we will see what happens as the days come and we get into range of the mesoscale models, remember with the snow event a couple of weeks ago the models didn't latch on until 72 hours before the snow event happened!...

[stormlover2013]

well tomorrow we will have a good idea, models are starting to come in better agreement now.

[Portastorm]

well tomorrow we will have a good idea, models are starting to come in better agreement now.

I'm going to go out on a limb here ... and take a wild guess ... is it because we're about 2 days away from the event?!

[MississippiWx]

Even the Canadian came in drier this run.

Monday and Tuesday looks like a waste of strong upper level energy. Just too dry. At least it’s cold!

[Ralph's Weather]

Even the Canadian came in drier this run.

Monday and Tuesday looks like a waste of strong upper level energy. Just too dry. At least it’s cold!

We have often seen this scenario play out in northern Texas. Entrentched Arctic air plus shortwave with no modeled moisture equals an NWS forecast of flurries. Then when we have a couple inches covering everything we then geta WWA. Can't blame them as these turn out dry plenty of times also and they don't want to cry wolf.

[MississippiWx]

Even the Canadian came in drier this run.

Monday and Tuesday looks like a waste of strong upper level energy. Just too dry. At least it’s cold!

We have often seen this scenario play out in northern Texas. Entrentched Arctic air plus shortwave with no modeled moisture equals an NWS forecast of flurries. Then when we have a couple inches covering everything we then geta WWA. Can't blame them as these turn out dry plenty of times also and they don't want to cry wolf.

That’s what I’m hoping will happen. It will be so cold that maybe that strong shortwave can wring some light snow out from Texas to Mississippi!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Even the Canadian came in drier this run.

Monday and Tuesday looks like a waste of strong upper level energy. Just too dry. At least it’s cold!

We have often seen this scenario play out in northern Texas. Entrentched Arctic air plus shortwave with no modeled moisture equals an NWS forecast of flurries. Then when we have a couple inches covering everything we then geta WWA. Can't blame them as these turn out dry plenty of times also and they don't want to cry wolf.

Yep! Almost every snow event up here.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Energy looks intense enough for precip for sure. Now, the dynamics of the ULL as in divergence in the upper atmosphere/convergence in the lower layers etc, im not sure how it will work out for us. I will say this though, the soundings would be all snow if something did fall.

[srainhoutx]

Meanwhile all across the Metro Houston elevated roadways and bridges, TXDot Houston Regional Office is currently spreading de-icing brine.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Meanwhile all across the Metro Houston elevated roadways and bridges, TXDot Houston Regional Office is currently spreading de-icing brine.

They haven't done a thing around here for this possible event. I hope it doesn't come back to bite them.

[Ralph's Weather]

Meanwhile all across the Metro Houston elevated roadways and bridges, TXDot Houston Regional Office is currently spreading de-icing brine.

They haven't done a thing around here for this possible event. I hope it doesn't come back to bite them.

I20 near Tyler had been treated.

[Brent]

Euro still showing some flurries from Wichita Falls to Dallas and east towards Texarkana Sunday

[orangeblood]

Overnight runs of the GFS and Euro are pretty close together now. Cold in SE TX but no precip. Upper 20s in the Houston area and low 20s up in the DFW area on a few days next week. Highs only in the 30s. Colder than normal but no really big deal. Canadian is still nuts temperature and precip-wise. Could see a few snow flurries up north (DFW) as the precip ends Sunday, but that may be it. One issue as far as extreme cold is that the snow pack is just not very far south for this time of year. The air is modifying more as it moves south.

Although not deep, snowcover appears fairly far south for this time of year...a little above normal. Not sure there will be significant moderation to this airmass

[Brent]

thats quite a vigorous wave Tuesday on the Euro, but yet its dry it seems

[mcheer23]

thats quite a vigorous wave Tuesday on the Euro, but yet its dry it seems

Weird...

[South Texas Storms]

Even the Canadian came in drier this run.

Monday and Tuesday looks like a waste of strong upper level energy. Just too dry. At least it’s cold!

We have often seen this scenario play out in northern Texas. Entrentched Arctic air plus shortwave with no modeled moisture equals an NWS forecast of flurries. Then when we have a couple inches covering everything we then geta WWA. Can't blame them as these turn out dry plenty of times also and they don't want to cry wolf.

That’s what I’m hoping will happen. It will be so cold that maybe that strong shortwave can wring some light snow out from Texas to Mississippi!

I agree, although I don't like the models all trending towards a dry solution now. Over the past few days we've had at least one model showing frozen precip, and today we're down to none...

Still I won't give up hope because like we've been discussing, these type of disturbances can wring out any lingering moisture and bring us a nice surprise. We'll see.