Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

Quite interesting that the Euro has trended away from sending the trough out into the Pacific Ocean. Today's run is more western/southwest trough which would help open up the floodgates like the others. So yesterday's run could've been a one off fluke.

Am I interpreting this to mean more cold air for Texas and Louisiana? Thanks.

Not quite yet, it just means don't trust any one particular model! SE ridge in play here. Upper flow from the guidance will do its best to stop the cold air from quickly moving southward via SW flow aloft. Question then is can the dense, cold air beat it?

[harp]

Quite interesting that the Euro has trended away from sending the trough out into the Pacific Ocean. Today's run is more western/southwest trough which would help open up the floodgates like the others. So yesterday's run could've been a one off fluke.

Am I interpreting this to mean more cold air for Texas and Louisiana? Thanks.

Not quite yet, it just means don't trust any one particular model! SE ridge in play here. Upper flow from the guidance will do its best to stop the cold air from quickly moving southward via SW flow aloft. Question then is can the dense, cold air beat it?

Gotcha, thanks. The CMC does dump the cold air south towards the end of the run and it looks like it’s trying to spin up a storm. I realize that model has a cold bias, however.

[Ntxw]

That is a behemoth cold air mass on the guidance. Euro takes a pretty good -EPO to deliver some of it.

[txtwister78]

Quite interesting that the Euro has trended away from sending the trough out into the Pacific Ocean. Today's run is more western/southwest trough which would help open up the floodgates like the others. So yesterday's run could've been a one off fluke.

Am I interpreting this to mean more cold air for Texas and Louisiana? Thanks.

As Ntxw just mentioned, there is going to be some resistance to the cold surging south initially but when you deliver that much into the pattern the trend will be for it to continue to push and perhaps overwhelm. I think as a result of the SE ridge you're going to see some potential for ice storms across portions of the southern plains due to what I think will be shallower arctic intrusions. In other words, a real battle zone could materialize with the clashes. More severe weather perhaps across the SE.

[Ntxw]

The models are hedging a -3 to -4 EPO regime. It's a pretty good one alongside the very cold air source.

[WinterMax]

Am I interpreting this to mean more cold air for Texas and Louisiana? Thanks.

Not quite yet, it just means don't trust any one particular model! SE ridge in play here. Upper flow from the guidance will do its best to stop the cold air from quickly moving southward via SW flow aloft. Question then is can the dense, cold air beat it?

Gotcha, thanks. The CMC does dump the cold air south towards the end of the run and it looks like it’s trying to spin up a storm. I realize that model has a cold bias, however.

Yeah Harp, GFS fantasy teased us yesterday and took it back, but at least the arctic air lurks just to the north.

[harp]

Not quite yet, it just means don't trust any one particular model! SE ridge in play here. Upper flow from the guidance will do its best to stop the cold air from quickly moving southward via SW flow aloft. Question then is can the dense, cold air beat it?

Gotcha, thanks. The CMC does dump the cold air south towards the end of the run and it looks like it’s trying to spin up a storm. I realize that model has a cold bias, however.

Yeah Harp, GFS fantasy teased us yesterday and took it back, but at least the arctic air lurks just to the north.

Yep! I’m to your east here in south Louisiana. I’m pulling for the same things you are.

[orangeblood]

The models are hedging a -3 to -4 EPO regime. It's a pretty good one alongside the very cold air source.

Really cold 500mb look across all ensembles in week 2/3 now. Confidence going up quite substantially!

[DallasAg]

First Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories posted by LBB for the South Plains and TX panhandle for Monday night through Tuesday.

[Brent]

Well Tulsa did increase my totals a little at least

[Cpv17]

The models are hedging a -3 to -4 EPO regime. It's a pretty good one alongside the very cold air source.

Really cold 500mb look across all ensembles in week 2/3 now. Confidence going up quite substantially!
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1674388800/1675101600-8mUPoxFyyhU.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom/1674388800/1675209600-lG0tLr8qcbE.png

I like the look of the ECR. Should help funnel the cold more in a southerly direction vs SE.

[Brent]

Heavy snow at the Bills game on CBS if anyone needs a fix

[Cpv17]

Heavy snow at the Bills game on CBS if anyone needs a fix

I’m watching. The flakes look huge.

[orangeblood]

-58 F below normal coming down early Feb on Euro Control…Ops and Controls are all hinting at what is on the table

[Iceresistance]

Temperature bust today, could have implications for Tuesday's system

Shawnee, OK
Expected high: 46°F
Actual High: 40°F

Ada, OK
Expected High: 48°F
Actual High: 42°F

[Iceresistance]

-58 F below normal coming down early Feb on Euro Control…Ops and Controls are all hinting at what is on the table


https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/t2m_f_anom/1674388800/1675468800-IqHh5tSvwio.png

My lord! February is going to be nasty cold!

[bubba hotep]

Finally in 3k NAM range. 18z hits the northern burbs of DFW "pretty hard" with temps 33/34F. Obviously, areas NW of DFW up into Oklahoma do much better.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Wichita Falls always wins

[Brent]

Winter Storm Watch in NW Arkansas for 4-7 inches already. Wow. That's bullish

[Cpv17]

Finally in 3k NAM range. 18z hits the northern burbs of DFW "pretty hard" with temps 33/34F. Obviously, areas NW of DFW up into Oklahoma do much better.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2023012218/058/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

That doesn’t look like much of anything for DFW.