Texas Winter 2024-2025

[HockeyTx82]

29.1 here on my home thermometer.

[orangeblood]

Latest HRRR continues the same tone….quicker change over to all snow. If you account for snow ratio adjustments , 8-10” actuals across the metroplex/areas northeast on this run

[mmmmsnouts]

Im actually curious, what’s the point of naming winter storms?

The "idea" (I guess) was to get the public (including state and local officials/resources) to treat these as more serious weather events (similar to tropical system impacts) since they can cause major disruptions to life and property. My issue isn't so much about the names, it's the overkill of naming anything that drops a few inches of snow across the country and tagging it with a name. 2021 event type scenario obviously a different deal and that one was named as well.

I guess the counterpoint is the NHC still names little nothing 40 mph tropical storms that form in the middle of the ocean and fall apart after two days.

[Ntxw]

At least we are not in Atlanta's position. May start as snow but as the gulf low surges north all that warmer air changes it to rain. Nail-biting over there.

[txtwister78]

Latest HRRR continues the same tone….quicker change over to all snow. If you account for snow ratio adjustments , 8-10” actuals across the metroplex/areas northeast on this run

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736380800/1736535600-qiPHc4ATxoI.png

Just for context, that's not all snow. Dumps a ton of sleet and that particular map is overdoing totals. 4-5 more accurate (depending on how much melts) but nonetheless still a decent run.

[snownado]

At least we are not in Atlanta's position. May start as snow but as the gulf low surges north all that warmer air changes it to rain. Nail-biting over there.

Let's not count our chickens yet.

It'a still marginal enough that a predominately cold rain event remains on the table as a possibility here as well.

[rwfromkansas]

Wow, that HRRR jackpots me again even though I'm sure some is sleet. Nice to see more westward expansion.

Do we think the earlier temp drop is meaningful for DFW?

I am now at 30, almost 29. This is more than 4 hours ahead of schedule per the NWS hourly forecast.

If south winds kick up earlier and heavier or something else happens, this may not mean much. But, it seems to be a pretty decent start.

[Ntxw]

Wow, that HRRR jackpots me again even though I'm sure some is sleet. Nice to see more westward expansion.

Do we think the earlier temp drop is meaningful for DFW?

I am now at 30, almost 29. This is more than 4 hours ahead of schedule per the NWS hourly forecast.

If south winds kick up earlier and heavier or something else happens, this may not mean much. But, it seems to be a pretty decent start.

It may effect what sticks. But thermals above still is the big factor.

[Ralph's Weather]

Latest HRRR continues the same tone….quicker change over to all snow. If you account for snow ratio adjustments , 8-10” actuals across the metroplex/areas northeast on this run

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736380800/1736535600-qiPHc4ATxoI.png

Yes a chunk will be sleet but I have no trust in how a site will calculate sleet totals. I will be really shocked if I30 is mainly sleet. I can see 1 inch sleet with few inches snow for I20 but I30 may see an inch of sleet tomorrow before going all snow.
Just for context, that's not all snow. Dumps a ton of sleet and that particular map is overdoing totals. 4-5 more accurate (depending on how much melts) but nonetheless still a decent run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/sleet_total/1736380800/1736521200-IJTfMKCKKxk.png

[bubba hotep]

Give me a bit more of cooling trend and I'm taking the HRRR snow map.to the bank.

[Fifty Rock]

Waiting on the returns Southwest of me.

[Ntxw]

At least we are not in Atlanta's position. May start as snow but as the gulf low surges north all that warmer air changes it to rain. Nail-biting over there.

Let's not count our chickens yet.

It'a still marginal enough that a predominately cold rain event remains on the table as a possibility here as well.

Oh yeah, but I would take our odds over theirs. That gulf low is pesky for them. It's often a problem for that region even with elevation and some latitude, the city often falls short on 4+ snows. Got family there.

[txtwister78]

[bubba hotep]

Latest HRRR continues the same tone….quicker change over to all snow. If you account for snow ratio adjustments , 8-10” actuals across the metroplex/areas northeast on this run

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736380800/1736535600-qiPHc4ATxoI.png

Yes a chunk will be sleet but I have no trust in how a site will calculate sleet totals. I will be really shocked if I30 is mainly sleet. I can see 1 inch sleet with few inches snow for I20 but I30 may see an inch of sleet tomorrow before going all snow.
Just for context, that's not all snow. Dumps a ton of sleet and that particular map is overdoing totals. 4-5 more accurate (depending on how much melts) but nonetheless still a decent run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/sleet_total/1736380800/1736521200-IJTfMKCKKxk.png

I agree and there is going to be a zone that doesn't mix and if it's under mesoscale banding then we could see big totals there. My bet is somewhere in Collin County and off to the NE.

[orangeblood]

Latest HRRR continues the same tone….quicker change over to all snow. If you account for snow ratio adjustments , 8-10” actuals across the metroplex/areas northeast on this run

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736380800/1736535600-qiPHc4ATxoI.png

Just for context, that's not all snow. Dumps a ton of sleet and that particular map is overdoing totals. 4-5 more accurate (depending on how much melts) but nonetheless still a decent run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/sleet_total/1736380800/1736521200-IJTfMKCKKxk.png

[HockeyTx82]

29.1 here on my home thermometer.

To calculate the dew point, we can use the following formula:

\[ \text{Dew Point} = \text{Temperature} - \left( \frac{100 - \text{Humidity}}{5} \right) \]

Let's plug in the numbers:

\[ \text{Temperature} = 28.6^\circ F \]
\[ \text{Humidity} = 69\% \]

\[ \text{Dew Point} = 28.6 - \left( \frac{100 - 69}{5} \right) \]
\[ \text{Dew Point} = 28.6 - \left( \frac{31}{5} \right) \]
\[ \text{Dew Point} = 28.6 - 6.2 \]
\[ \text{Dew Point} \approx 22.4^\circ F \]

So, the dew point is approximately 22.4°F.

Pretty cold, huh? How's the weather affecting you lately?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Are temps trending below or above whats expected for this time?

[txtwister78]

Latest HRRR continues the same tone….quicker change over to all snow. If you account for snow ratio adjustments , 8-10” actuals across the metroplex/areas northeast on this run

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736380800/1736535600-qiPHc4ATxoI.png

Just for context, that's not all snow. Dumps a ton of sleet and that particular map is overdoing totals. 4-5 more accurate (depending on how much melts) but nonetheless still a decent run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/sleet_total/1736380800/1736521200-IJTfMKCKKxk.png

Some sleet but the positive snow depth change map doesn’t include sleet…8-10” is what it’s showing, it’s a fairly reliable tool to estimate actual accumulations

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/snow_depth_chg_cm/1736380800/1736553600-tVvqoT0TSPk.png

Think you meant to select inches on that one, not "CM".

[BradKingK]

Are temps trending below or above whats expected for this time?

That is somewhat important for how much sticks initially, but a new airmass will arrive with it's own moisture/temp profile

[txtwister78]

Pivotal snowfall map (doesn't account for sleet) just as an example of what I'm referring to compared to the WB map you posted.