Texas Winter 2016-2017

[bubba hotep]

It will be interesting to see if an -AO actually comes about. The models have had several false alarms this winter but the +AO keeps winning. N. Texas does better snow wise with a neutral PNA but la nina cold spells are often times associated with a -PNA. It's just hard to get snow to some areas lol.

[wxman57]

I'm liking the 12Z GFS. First 9 days in February are above-normal across SE TX. My cold-mongering coworker (long-range expert) says the cold air will come, eventually. I sense a bit of uncertainty in his voice, though.

[bubba hotep]

I'm liking the 12Z GFS. First 9 days in February are above-normal across SE TX. My cold-mongering coworker (long-range expert) says the cold air will come, eventually. I sense a bit of uncertainty in his voice, though.

http://i68.tinypic.com/14llfex.jpg

I have like the Feb 7 to 10 range for a while now but those darn models keep pushing it back! The coming cool down (maybe a freeze at DFW this week?) was picked up a while back but February is starting to give me pause.

[GalvestonWXGeek]

At the risk of getting pelted with snowballs, I must admit I like this post. I'm ready for some fishing and surfing weather.

I'm liking the 12Z GFS. First 9 days in February are above-normal across SE TX. My cold-mongering coworker (long-range expert) says the cold air will come, eventually. I sense a bit of uncertainty in his voice, though.

[Cpv17]

It can get really cold in March too guys. I remember back in March of 2002 we got all the way down to 19 degrees here in SE TX. It's unlikely, but hey we still have a lot of winter left.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Anybody remember this:



April 2007 Temple Texas. Snow on Bluebonnets on I-35.

[Ntxw]

SOI is relaxing and MJO possibly firing back in the IO with low AAM, reflecting Aleutian low replacement by Aleutian ridge mid range. That may get us out of the Ninoesque extended jet back to the Nina retracted jet EPO dump early Feb. Wildcard still is the AO

We got some good rains with the Nino like -SOI burst and mild Pacific jet. Should see a more typical Nina dry and very cold WCan pretty soon as the tropics revert back to Nina state.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f192/TeamPlayersblue/2015-01-27160424-2_zpscfd316d6.jpg

This is the best pic ive ever taken. Im going to take a photo from the exact same spot this year as well. Will update.

I have spent countless summers in Crested Butte, but my only ski trip there was about 35 years ago, when I was about 10. I'm struggling to picture exactly where this is. I assume this is what I'd call the backside of MCB, with the ski village just behind view to the left and the town further left from there?

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

BTW, that photo is absolutely stunning. Nice work.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Another fine winter day in South Texas sitting here at 87.

I'll go ahead and post it....

WINTER CANCEL

[TexasBreeze]

I wouldn't be surprised to see one more arctic front in February seeing there was one in December and one a few weeks ago, but that maybe is it. The pattern has been a lot more days warm compared to cold days. I would have to agree with the winter cancel above! I don't mind days like this with sun and nice weather!

[Ntxw]

EPS is a pretty good run in early Feb for aforementioned EPO blast. Positioned well for spine of Rockies cold spill. Mentioned it many times but I really like the Feb 1989 analog..could be similar to what happened in early Jan.

[Portastorm]

As Bastardi would say, this is a heckuva way to run a winter.

New record high temperatures in Austin today of 85 at the airport and 83 at Camp Mabry. I believe this is the SIXTH day this winter here in Austin where we have experienced record-breaking high temps.

[Yukon Cornelius]

As Bastardi would say, this is a heckuva way to run a winter.

New record high temperatures in Austin today of 85 at the airport and 83 at Camp Mabry. I believe this is the SIXTH day this winter here in Austin where we have experienced record-breaking high temps.

Its been a crazy season. Its 78 here with a forecasted low of 32 tonight. Talk about a temperature swing..

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f192/TeamPlayersblue/2015-01-27160424-2_zpscfd316d6.jpg

This is the best pic ive ever taken. Im going to take a photo from the exact same spot this year as well. Will update.

I have spent countless summers in Crested Butte, but my only ski trip there was about 35 years ago, when I was about 10. I'm struggling to picture exactly where this is. I assume this is what I'd call the backside of MCB, with the ski village just behind view to the left and the town further left from there?

Youre right! The town Mount Crested Butte and the main town are to the left of the photo!

[wxman57]

Now we're resorting to "it can still get cold in March!"? My cold-mongering coworker and friend of nearly 30 years is ready to concede that the west coast trof isn't going anywhere anytime soon. He didn't look so happy at the end of the day, today. The models just haven't been predicting the long-range pattern very well. Yes, you can certainly get winter weather across Texas beyond mid February, but it's going to take a major pattern change. Barring that, this may become my dream winter - January 6-8, 2017 was all there was to winter.

[bubba hotep]

Now we're resorting to "it can still get cold in March!"? My cold-mongering coworker and friend of nearly 30 years is ready to concede that the west coast trof isn't going anywhere anytime soon. He didn't look so happy at the end of the day, today. The models just haven't been predicting the long-range pattern very well. Yes, you can certainly get winter weather across Texas beyond mid February, but it's going to take a major pattern change. Barring that, this may become my dream winter - January 6-8, 2017 was all there was to winter.

I smell a troll lol I'm actually even more encouraged about the 2nd week of February than I was last night.

[Ntxw]

Now we're resorting to "it can still get cold in March!"? My cold-mongering coworker and friend of nearly 30 years is ready to concede that the west coast trof isn't going anywhere anytime soon. He didn't look so happy at the end of the day, today. The models just haven't been predicting the long-range pattern very well. Yes, you can certainly get winter weather across Texas beyond mid February, but it's going to take a major pattern change. Barring that, this may become my dream winter - January 6-8, 2017 was all there was to winter.

I smell a troll lol I'm actually even more encouraged about the 2nd week of February than I was last night.

He is our beloved resident heat miser. During warm times you will find him most prevalent. It can flip though, his heated blankets, lack of biking, and space heaters go in full force when it's below 60. Let him have his fun this week...we'll take over when the calendar flips . We're going to wavebreak (ridge) the Pacific and reverse the warm pattern

[dhweather]

FWD AFD - downright depressing. I'm sensing a serious fire weather threat in February. Vegetation killed by the hard freezes, dried out nice and crisp, strong winds, a careless cigarette could cause a massive wildfire.



The medium range guidance is all in good agreement that the
synoptic pattern will favor dry and tranquil weather over the
region for several days. Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail,
which will promote generally clear skies with periodic weak
reinforcing cold fronts. These fronts will serve to keep
temperatures near seasonal normals through the weekend. Highs
will generally be in the mid to upper 50s with lows in the mid 20s
to mid 30s. There will be a slight warming trend early next week
as southerly flow returns ahead of an upper low moving east out of
Mexico. This low may track too far south and be starved for
moisture for rain across North and Central Texas. Will keep the
forecast dry and continue to monitor for possible inclusion of low
PoPs across the south next Tuesday.

The extended period of dry and clear weather should serve to dry
out fine fuels, but wind speeds will remain low and limit the
wildfire threat.

[dhweather]

Goes 16's first images came in - wow!

Story: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/20 ... s-to-earth