Texas Winter 2018-2019

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So weird, coming into this winter we were supposed to be stuck in very favorable phases.

[Cerlin]

So weird, coming into this winter we were supposed to be stuck in very favorable phases.

Based off of analog years and historical trends, yes, but new history is written every day and this winter just panned out differently than similarly-setup winters have before, and not in a good way for Texas snow.

EDIT: And yes, even though time is waning we still have enough for our winter to change. I know things keep getting pushed out but...at least the 10 days always look hopeful. At least they’re showing cold and moisture. They could very well be showing us getting into the 80s consistently but they’re not. We’re not even into February yet. Who knows what could happen.

[Cpv17]

Here’s an ice storm for you starved DFW folk



This run makes no sense to me though. Shows a humongous Artic blast headed right towards us and then it just fizzles out to nothing cuz there’s a ridge undercutting it. I’ve never recalled that happening. That strong of a front would push all the way down into the Gulf powered by a 1050mb + high.

[Brent]

Here’s an ice storm for you starved DFW folk

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019012200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_48.png

This run makes no sense to me though. Shows a humongous Artic blast headed right towards us and then it just fizzles out to nothing cuz there’s a ridge undercutting it. I’ve never recalled that happening. That strong of a front would push all the way down into the Gulf powered by a 1050mb + high.

I'm telling you, there's gotta be a shield or a hex something around here

[Cerlin]

Here’s an ice storm for you starved DFW folk

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019012200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_48.png

This run makes no sense to me though. Shows a humongous Artic blast headed right towards us and then it just fizzles out to nothing cuz there’s a ridge undercutting it. I’ve never recalled that happening. That strong of a front would push all the way down into the Gulf powered by a 1050mb + high.

That’s not even really on DFW, maybe some far reaching suburbs. Just our winter storm curse, gotta figure out how to break it. (The flizzard was just a sick tease from it winter overlords)

[Cpv17]

Here’s an ice storm for you starved DFW folk

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019012200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_48.png

This run makes no sense to me though. Shows a humongous Artic blast headed right towards us and then it just fizzles out to nothing cuz there’s a ridge undercutting it. I’ve never recalled that happening. That strong of a front would push all the way down into the Gulf powered by a 1050mb + high.

That’s not even really on DFW, maybe some far reaching suburbs. Just our winter storm curse, gotta figure out how to break it. (The flizzard was just a sick tease from it winter overlords)

Honestly wish DFW would get dumped on just so all y’all DFW people can hush up about it

[Cerlin]

Here’s an ice storm for you starved DFW folk

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019012200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_48.png

This run makes no sense to me though. Shows a humongous Artic blast headed right towards us and then it just fizzles out to nothing cuz there’s a ridge undercutting it. I’ve never recalled that happening. That strong of a front would push all the way down into the Gulf powered by a 1050mb + high.

That’s not even really on DFW, maybe some far reaching suburbs. Just our winter storm curse, gotta figure out how to break it. (The flizzard was just a sick tease from it winter overlords)

Honestly wish DFW would get dumped on just so all y’all DFW people can hush up about it

You and me both! I won’t quit till we get hit!

[harp]

Here’s an ice storm for you starved DFW folk

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019012200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_48.png

This run makes no sense to me though. Shows a humongous Artic blast headed right towards us and then it just fizzles out to nothing cuz there’s a ridge undercutting it. I’ve never recalled that happening. That strong of a front would push all the way down into the Gulf powered by a 1050mb + high.

You know, I was thinking the same thing. Huge arctic dump coming down and then, poof, it's gone? Doesn't make sense.

[Cpv17]

That’s not even really on DFW, maybe some far reaching suburbs. Just our winter storm curse, gotta figure out how to break it. (The flizzard was just a sick tease from it winter overlords)

Honestly wish DFW would get dumped on just so all y’all DFW people can hush up about it

You and me both! I won’t quit till we get hit!

I can’t complain. I’m in southeast Texas and we just got hit last year so that means we probably won’t see anything for another 10 years. Been here all my life & I’ve only seen it snow 3 times to where it actually accumulated. The 90’s sucked other than an ice storm or two here. I was born in 88 & I can only remember it snowing 3 times here & all 3 of those events happened in December. 04, 09, & 17. Climatology says February is our snowiest month, but I’ve yet to see that in my lifetime.

[Cpv17]

Here’s an ice storm for you starved DFW folk

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019012200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_48.png

This run makes no sense to me though. Shows a humongous Artic blast headed right towards us and then it just fizzles out to nothing cuz there’s a ridge undercutting it. I’ve never recalled that happening. That strong of a front would push all the way down into the Gulf powered by a 1050mb + high.

You know, I was thinking the same thing. Huge arctic dump coming down and then, poof, it's gone? Doesn't make sense.

Yeah, the GFS is on one if you know what I mean lol

[Brent]

Here’s an ice storm for you starved DFW folk

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019012200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_48.png

This run makes no sense to me though. Shows a humongous Artic blast headed right towards us and then it just fizzles out to nothing cuz there’s a ridge undercutting it. I’ve never recalled that happening. That strong of a front would push all the way down into the Gulf powered by a 1050mb + high.

That’s not even really on DFW, maybe some far reaching suburbs. Just our winter storm curse, gotta figure out how to break it. (The flizzard was just a sick tease from it winter overlords)

Honestly wish DFW would get dumped on just so all y’all DFW people can hush up about it

Don't we all

[Cpv17]

Ummm....

[Brent]

Euro snows a little in Brownsville around day 9 but mostly just extremely cold for everyone else transient cold again

[Cpv17]

Euro snows a little in Brownsville around day 9 but mostly just extremely cold for everyone else transient cold again

Doesn’t make any sense to me. Higher heights in the SW are replaced with lower heights. Ridging retreats up north a bit off the west coast. Trough digs down basically all the way to the Baja deep into Mexico. The Euro has a decent amount of snow and precipitation in Mexico and then it just fizzles out on its approach to Texas? Idk what’s going on anymore..gives me a headache

[Brent]

Euro snows a little in Brownsville around day 9 but mostly just extremely cold for everyone else transient cold again

Doesn’t make any sense to me. Higher heights in the SW are replaced with lower heights. Ridging retreats up north a bit off the west coast. Trough digs down basically all the way to the Baja deep into Mexico. The Euro has a decent amount of snow and precipitation in Mexico and then it just fizzles out on its approach to Texas? Idk what’s going on anymore..gives me a headache

if we can't score in that setup might as well move onto spring

[Cpv17]

Euro snows a little in Brownsville around day 9 but mostly just extremely cold for everyone else transient cold again

Doesn’t make any sense to me. Higher heights in the SW are replaced with lower heights. Ridging retreats up north a bit off the west coast. Trough digs down basically all the way to the Baja deep into Mexico. The Euro has a decent amount of snow and precipitation in Mexico and then it just fizzles out on its approach to Texas? Idk what’s going on anymore..gives me a headache

if we can't score in that setup might as well move onto spring

Ain’t that the truth brother

[gpsnowman]

Ummm....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019012200/ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019012200/ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

Those maps do look pretty. But as the case many times this winter we have seen this and then we end up with nothing as time gets closer. If we can keep this look through the week to Friday then I think we can start making some noise. Need to be patient up until then because we have been burned too many times this season getting our hopes up over a week out then poof it is gone. Later this month into February do offer plenty of hope.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looking at the morning models I see precip changing to a sleet/snow mix around 3am for western E TX. Depending on how long precip holds inn some light accumulations could be had. Surface temps look to be I the low 30s, 925mb temps in the 20s and 850mb in the mid 30s. So gotta watch the 850 freeze line and if the precip shield can stay far enough west once temps drop. Its fun trying to figure out these borderline situations.

[wxman57]

Here’s an ice storm for you starved DFW folk

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019012200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_48.png

This run makes no sense to me though. Shows a humongous Artic blast headed right towards us and then it just fizzles out to nothing cuz there’s a ridge undercutting it. I’ve never recalled that happening. That strong of a front would push all the way down into the Gulf powered by a 1050mb + high.

You know, I was thinking the same thing. Huge arctic dump coming down and then, poof, it's gone? Doesn't make sense.

I agree, what could be blocking the cold air from getting down to the Gulf coast?

I saved some model output from an Arctic front back in 1993 (have the print-out in a folder at work). The American model (perhaps the AVN back then) took the front down to south of the Red River then drove it back north to Kansas as the upper trof approached from the west. The shallow cold air ignored the upper flow and blasted out into the Gulf at the same time that the model had it retreating north to Kansas. Result was sub-freezing Arctic air all across Texas with freezing rain and sleet. So much for the temps in the 70s that the model was forecasting. The GFS still has an issue with shallow cold air, though maybe not as bad as in 1993.

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro EPS and GEFS both have the 1st week of Feb looking above normal temp wise...