Texas Winter 2021-2022

[TheProfessor]

GEFS has consistently been great for me and has only gotten better the last couple of days. My mean is now just above 8" and that's using 10-1.


Anyways, at this point kind of not putting too much stock in model surface maps. Sometimes they have a hard time with these juiced up systems. Even though they're already showing high QPF here, it wouldn't surprise me if we end up a bit more (unless we see some big south shifts). Models have rich rich mid-level moisture overrunning cold moist air with mid-level frontogenesis lingering over south and southeast Kansas. That's a recipe for big snow.

[Brent]

Winter Storm Watch here... Range is 1-10 inches

[Iceresistance]

Winter Storm Watch here... Range is 1-10 inches

Of Sleet & Snow, it would be nuts if we got 10 inches of Sleet.

[cheezyWXguy]

GEFS has consistently been great for me and has only gotten better the last couple of days. My mean is now just above 8" and that's using 10-1.


Anyways, at this point kind of not putting too much stock in model surface maps. Sometimes they have a hard time with these juiced up systems. Even though they're already showing high QPF here, it wouldn't surprise me if we end up a bit more (unless we see some big south shifts). Models have rich rich mid-level moisture overrunning cold moist air with mid-level frontogenesis lingering over south and southeast Kansas. That's a recipe for big snow.

What are your thoughts along those lines for down here in your former stomping grounds?

[Brent]

Winter Storm Watch here... Range is 1-10 inches

Of Sleet & Snow, it would be nuts if we got 10 inches of Sleet.

I just can't see that much sleet I could be wrong but I think the heavy rates Wednesday night would change it over sooner or later

There's still the lighter event on Thursday too

[Iceresistance]

Winter Storm Watch here... Range is 1-10 inches

Of Sleet & Snow, it would be nuts if we got 10 inches of Sleet.

I just can't see that much sleet I could be wrong but I think the heavy rates Wednesday night would change it over sooner or later

There's still the lighter event on Thursday

Or the Polar Air arriving earlier than expected.

I don't think that Thursday's event is going to be light, the Snow Ratios are high when it comes with Temperatures in the Teens

[EnnisTx]

Winter Storm Watch here... Range is 1-10 inches

Lol...That's what I told my wife 1 to 10 inches!

[orangeblood]

Winter Storm Watch here... Range is 1-10 inches

Lol...That's what I told my wife 1 to 10 inches!

[Iceresistance]

Winter Storm Watch here... Range is 1-10 inches

Lol...That's what I told my wife 1 to 10 inches!

I told the School "Up to 1 inch of Ice, 1-3 inches of Sleet, & 4-8 inches of snow. Highly depends on the Warm Nose & how fast it transitions from Ice to Sleet to Snow"

[EnnisTx]

Winter Storm Watch here... Range is 1-10 inches

Of Sleet & Snow, it would be nuts if we got 10 inches of Sleet.

I just can't see that much sleet I could be wrong but I think the heavy rates Wednesday night would change it over sooner or later

There's still the lighter event on Thursday too

That would be a lot of sleet. The most I've ever seen is 5-6 inches back during the cobblestone ice event, I was working for the State out in West Palo Pinto County near Ranger Hill where I spent 13 hours stuck in traffic on I 20.

[orangeblood]

Of Sleet & Snow, it would be nuts if we got 10 inches of Sleet.

I just can't see that much sleet I could be wrong but I think the heavy rates Wednesday night would change it over sooner or later

There's still the lighter event on Thursday too

That would be a lot of sleet. The most I've ever seen is 5-6 inches back during the cobblestone ice event, I was working for the State out in West Palo Pinto County near Ranger Hill where I spent 13 hours stuck in traffic on I 20.

Temp Profile and QPF wise, the December 2013 "Cobblestone Event" is about as close of an analog to this one as I've found...probably best to prepare for something similar and potentially worse

[rwfromkansas]

GEFS has consistently been great for me and has only gotten better the last couple of days. My mean is now just above 8" and that's using 10-1.


Anyways, at this point kind of not putting too much stock in model surface maps. Sometimes they have a hard time with these juiced up systems. Even though they're already showing high QPF here, it wouldn't surprise me if we end up a bit more (unless we see some big south shifts). Models have rich rich mid-level moisture overrunning cold moist air with mid-level frontogenesis lingering over south and southeast Kansas. That's a recipe for big snow.

I didn't even really use the ensembles until I visited this site more often. I like how they help smooth out the differences between models. The individual runs can have wonky placements of totals, while the ensembles help remove crazy differences.

[TheProfessor]

I just can't see that much sleet I could be wrong but I think the heavy rates Wednesday night would change it over sooner or later

There's still the lighter event on Thursday too

That would be a lot of sleet. The most I've ever seen is 5-6 inches back during the cobblestone ice event, I was working for the State out in West Palo Pinto County near Ranger Hill where I spent 13 hours stuck in traffic on I 20.

Temp Profile and QPF wise, the December 2013 "Cobblestone Event" is about as close of an analog to this one as I've found...probably best to prepare for something similar and potentially worse

The potentially worse is the addition of stronger winds and much colder temps. Anyone who gets more than a quarter inch of freezing rain accumulations I'm greatly concerned for.

[Iceresistance]

GEFS has consistently been great for me and has only gotten better the last couple of days. My mean is now just above 8" and that's using 10-1.


Anyways, at this point kind of not putting too much stock in model surface maps. Sometimes they have a hard time with these juiced up systems. Even though they're already showing high QPF here, it wouldn't surprise me if we end up a bit more (unless we see some big south shifts). Models have rich rich mid-level moisture overrunning cold moist air with mid-level frontogenesis lingering over south and southeast Kansas. That's a recipe for big snow.

I didn't even really use the ensembles until I visited this site more often. I like how they help smooth out the differences between models. The individual runs can have wonky placements of totals, while the ensembles help remove crazy differences.

One of the main reasons I like the Ensembles more the Operationals is because it has the Ensemble Mean, & every member is a model run itself.

[Iceresistance]

That would be a lot of sleet. The most I've ever seen is 5-6 inches back during the cobblestone ice event, I was working for the State out in West Palo Pinto County near Ranger Hill where I spent 13 hours stuck in traffic on I 20.

Temp Profile and QPF wise, the December 2013 "Cobblestone Event" is about as close of an analog to this one as I've found...probably best to prepare for something similar and potentially worse

The potentially worse is the addition of stronger winds and much colder temps. Anyone who gets more than a quarter inch of freezing rain accumulations I'm greatly concerned for.

Southern Oklahoma, SE Oklahoma, Eastern Oklahoma & Northern Texas is the main concern areas for over .25 inch of Ice, especially noted on the WPC.

[wxman57]

I thought it would be fun to plot a model comparison from Thursday evening to noon Monday. I would say that models are in somewhat of a disagreement! Look at Monday's low in Houston. Canadian has 19, GFS has 45! Some of the disagreement is because some models have ice on the ground and some don't. Note that these are "raw" 2m temps.

http://wxman57.com/images/DFW-00ZJan31Models.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/Houston-00ZJan31Models.JPG

[Iceresistance]

I've noticed a very heavy area of snow across Missouri & into Illinois that could trend SW if the ULL that generates the snowfall is further SW.

EDIT: I don't know where that system has to be for the heavy snow to trend SW

[EnnisTx]

I just can't see that much sleet I could be wrong but I think the heavy rates Wednesday night would change it over sooner or later

There's still the lighter event on Thursday too

That would be a lot of sleet. The most I've ever seen is 5-6 inches back during the cobblestone ice event, I was working for the State out in West Palo Pinto County near Ranger Hill where I spent 13 hours stuck in traffic on I 20.

Temp Profile and QPF wise, the December 2013 "Cobblestone Event" is about as close of an analog to this one as I've found...probably best to prepare for something similar and potentially worse

I'll be setting right here in my recliner with computer in lap and a hot cup of coffee, so I'm prepared to watch this unfold. Once it starts, if people will just stay off the roads unless it's an emergency, that would greatly help those trying to mitigate the situation as best as possible to do their dangerous jobs on the roads.

[Iceresistance]

That would be a lot of sleet. The most I've ever seen is 5-6 inches back during the cobblestone ice event, I was working for the State out in West Palo Pinto County near Ranger Hill where I spent 13 hours stuck in traffic on I 20.

Temp Profile and QPF wise, the December 2013 "Cobblestone Event" is about as close of an analog to this one as I've found...probably best to prepare for something similar and potentially worse

I'll be setting right here in my recliner with computer in lap and a hot cup of coffee, so I'm prepared to watch this unfold. Once it starts, if people will just stay off the roads unless it's an emergency, that would greatly help those trying to mitigate the situation as best as possible to do their dangerous jobs on the roads.

I'll be doing the same thing too.

(Also KWTV once said that there is a chance the Roads may have to be shut down because of the storm Yesterday)

[Iceresistance]

Brent, what is the snowfall showing on the TWC?