Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

Shades of March 2008.

https://i.imgur.com/qLyiVEr.jpg

Likely that, but on a much larger scale to the north.

No, you get nothing in Tecumseh. I forbid it!

Please don't ruin possibly my only snowfall potential for January 2023!

NWS-Norman would like to say otherwise as well!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/image44e808ca38bcc4bc6.png

[Iceresistance]

It's already 30°F outside

[ThunderSleetDreams]

FLY EAGLES FLY!!! Beat the 49ers!

[Brent]

I've been NAM'ed. Definitely a north shift

[Gotwood]

It's already 30°F outside

Temps are always fascinating around my area. I live in Brock Tx and my weather station says 33 already. Figure with perfect clear sky’s we get a pretty soild freeze tonight.

[Iceresistance]

I've been NAM'ed. Definitely a north shift

I also got NAMed too, it looks like that it made the system larger too.

[Iceresistance]

Holy 0z GFS! 6-8 inches of snow and it's only 2 days out?


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Yes.png

[Brent]

Holy 0z GFS! 6-8 inches of snow and it's only 2 days out?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Yes.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Yes.png

AccuWeather has me almost equal chances of 1-3 or 3-6 inches such a big range. 1 inch is meh 6 inches would be impressive

[Iceresistance]

Local TV met has mentioned the possibility of Thundersnow

Also, holy 0z GEFS!


https://s3.gifyu.com/images/OOF.png

[Brent]

News still going half inch to 3 inches here if it snows as long as the models have I find that hard to believe

[txtwister78]

News still going half inch to 3 inches here if it snows as long as the models have I find that hard to believe

Following the NBM/NWS more than likely. This is really going to be a real-time event for most. Dewpoints/wet bulb factor along with surface temps could limit amounts significantly than what some models are showing. Boom/Bust potential is relatively high forecasting this setup and so I'm not surprised if folks tend to go more conservative with totals. The potential is there however across your area to exceed. Just have to see how things look Tuesday morning.

[Cerlin]

0z HRRR was interesting for central and western Oklahoma. Raises temperatures overnight (different than NAM and other hi res models), presumably due to some stronger southerly flow from warm gulf air aloft. Not sure how that leads to lower QPE over central Oklahoma, but it's a trend worth watching. HRRR was the only model to show the flurries OKC got today, so I tend to trust it, but I'll wait to give concern until the 6z and 12z runs, or if any other models start to show it too. Even with that, it still has some banding dropping 3-4 inches over parts of the OKC metro and plenty of snow near the red river.

[txtwister78]

That's insane cold for an ensemble this far out.

[somethingfunny]

That's insane cold for an ensemble this far out.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_c_anom/1674432000/1675036800-wulpRflZatI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_c_anom/1674432000/1675123200-DgsFrBfM9Do.png

February is coming.

[gpsnowman]

That's insane cold for an ensemble this far out.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_c_anom/1674432000/1675036800-wulpRflZatI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_c_anom/1674432000/1675123200-DgsFrBfM9Do.png

February is coming.

So odd that it always seems that way. January has been a give up month for the most part in the recent past. Like Ford, Feb is the best in Texas.

[Gotwood]

Well not sure what changed but everything shifted north none of the models are showing much of anything for my area now. Let’s hope they are wrong. Hard freeze here tonight 24 right now.

[Iceresistance]

Winter Storm Watch for my area, will be upgraded to warning later today.

[Brent]

Winter Storm Watch for my area, will be upgraded to warning later today.

Tulsa increasing my totals too... I've gone from less than an inch to 2-3 inches. It won't surprise me if we're trending towards even higher numbers

[Gotwood]

Winter Storm Watch for my area, will be upgraded to warning later today.

Tulsa increasing my totals too... I've gone from less than an inch to 2-3 inches. It won't surprise me if we're trending towards even higher numbers

Entrenching my hate for Oklahoma haha.

[DonWrk]

Who thinks we could have a Red River doozy in store for some 6-8 inch totals?