Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Ralph's Weather]

00z Euro EPS and GEFS both have the 1st week of Feb looking above normal temp wise...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019012200/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png

If we can have W Canada load up like that while avoiding a torch down here I'll take that as it sets us up with a cold source region for the peak of our snow season.

[wxman57]

00z Euro EPS and GEFS both have the 1st week of Feb looking above normal temp wise...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019012200/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png

It's almost like the cold air is being diverted eastward by some sort of barrier along the Canadian border from western Montana to Minnesota...

[orangeblood]

Euro snows a little in Brownsville around day 9 but mostly just extremely cold for everyone else transient cold again

Doesn’t make any sense to me. Higher heights in the SW are replaced with lower heights. Ridging retreats up north a bit off the west coast. Trough digs down basically all the way to the Baja deep into Mexico. The Euro has a decent amount of snow and precipitation in Mexico and then it just fizzles out on its approach to Texas? Idk what’s going on anymore..gives me a headache

Just because there are lower heights doesn't mean it will precipitate...it's all about the configuration and mechanisms for lift, these maps do not show that - troughs are way too positively tilted and weakening! Still time for it to correct and reconfigure but as of now, it appears cold and DRY!

[orangeblood]

00z Euro EPS and GEFS both have the 1st week of Feb looking above normal temp wise...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019012200/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png

If we can have W Canada load up like that while avoiding a torch down here I'll take that as it sets us up with a cold source region for the peak of our snow season.

Yeah, the location of the core of the cold appears like it will retrograde into a more favorable spot for us....just need a system to cut underneath and tap into the substantial cold!!! Latest GFS and Parallel are both showing this potential to begin Feb.

[Snowman67]

00z Euro EPS and GEFS both have the 1st week of Feb looking above normal temp wise...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019012200/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png

It's almost like the cold air is being diverted eastward by some sort of barrier along the Canadian border from western Montana to Minnesota...

Mr. Heat Miser - tear down this wall!

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro EPS and GEFS both have the 1st week of Feb looking above normal temp wise...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019012200/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png

If we can have W Canada load up like that while avoiding a torch down here I'll take that as it sets us up with a cold source region for the peak of our snow season.

The Weeklies also show this warm up but show a more favorable pattern after the warm up. I still think we have a chance to score a winter wx event next week before we shift to the warm up (if the warm up comes to pass).

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Active weather pattern will remain in place over much of the nation resulting in a series of cold front across TX.

Moisture return is underway over the area in response to developing low pressure over NM and the retreat of the weekend cold ridge to the east. Cloud deck will thicken and lower today as Gulf moisture increases and expect that by late morning some areas of drizzle may develop. Rain chances ramp up this evening as a cold front moves into the region. Combination of lift along and behind the front and incoming strong short wave will likely result in widespread showers and possibly a few thunderstorms tonight. Rainfall amounts will generally be on the low side with most areas seeing less than .50 of an inch.

Cold air mass will quickly overtake the region early Wednesday as the next chunk of modified arctic air moves southeast over the Ohio Valley. Low temperature son Wednesday morning will drop into the 36-39 degree range over much of the area and light rainfall will linger until about 6-8am. A few models show just enough cooling in the mid levels to get a flake of snow of tow across our northern counties Wednesday morning, but think the dry air will be working into the area prior to the mid levels being cold enough to support anything frozen. Would not rule out a little bit of rain/snow mix north of a line from College Station to Huntsville tomorrow morning. With surface temperatures above freezing, whatever falls will not have any impacts.

Wednesday will be cold with strong cold air advection likely keeping temperatures in the 40’s all day. Clearing skies late in the day will set the stage for near freezing temperatures Thursday morning over much of the area. This should be a light freeze with lows in the 29-32 range.

Fairly quick return of southerly winds by Thursday evening ahead of another front for late Friday and yet another front for Saturday. The Friday front will likely have little impact over the area, but the Saturday front is being monitored for another shot of cold air and potentially some showers late Saturday. ECMWF model has been the strongest with the short wave on Saturday and shows much more rainfall over the area compared to the drier GFS and CMC. Looks like moisture return will be fairly meager, but intensity of the short wave could squeeze out some rainfall late Saturday. Strong cold air advection once again behind the Saturday evening frontal passage with cold temperatures again next Sunday.

Another front looks to impact the area next Tuesday and this boundary may bring more “true” arctic air toward the area however models have been struggling greatly with the recent cold air intrusions into the US and that trajectory of these air masses. Most of the coldest air has been shunted to the NE/E of our region so that is something to watch heading into next week to see exactly how much cold air we may in fact get.

[ztshanklin]

00z Euro EPS and GEFS both have the 1st week of Feb looking above normal temp wise...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019012200/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png

It's almost like the cold air is being diverted eastward by some sort of barrier along the Canadian border from western Montana to Minnesota...

Mr. Heat Miser - tear down this wall!

I'm calling for another government shutdown until that wall is torn down and we get Yuge cold

[Tireman4]

It's almost like the cold air is being diverted eastward by some sort of barrier along the Canadian border from western Montana to Minnesota...

Mr. Heat Miser - tear down this wall!

I'm calling for another government shutdown until that wall is torn down and we get Yuge cold

And he taunts more and more and more...sigh....

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Honestly wish DFW would get dumped on just so all y’all DFW people can hush up about it

You and me both! I won’t quit till we get hit!

I can’t complain. I’m in southeast Texas and we just got hit last year so that means we probably won’t see anything for another 10 years. Been here all my life & I’ve only seen it snow 3 times to where it actually accumulated. The 90’s sucked other than an ice storm or two here. I was born in 88 & I can only remember it snowing 3 times here & all 3 of those events happened in December. 04, 09, & 17. Climatology says February is our snowiest month, but I’ve yet to see that in my lifetime.

If you think measurable snow in Houston is once a decade normal, you'd be wrong. Outside of dustings, Houston has had like 7 measurable snows (greater than 1 inch) since we started keeping records. That's 7 measurable snows in 120 something years. Once every 15-18 years is more like it.

Now, we've had a fair amount of freezing rain and sleet events over that same time period....

[orangeblood]

Appears like there is a really nice looking AO tank on the horizon! Signs that the NAO won't be far behind, hopefully west-based - storm path trajectory should be further south then EPO cooperation and Feb is looking brighter !

[Cerlin]

Finally some good news!

[Ntxw]

Finally some good news!

The weather news these days swings every 6-12 hours . May go back negative by nightfall.

[orangeblood]

Finally some good news!

The weather news these days swings every 6-12 hours . May go back negative by nightfall.

It's what makes things interesting around here....what's the fun in a model making an accurate forecast from 15 days out???

[Lagreeneyes03]

Appears like there is a really nice looking AO tank on the horizon! Signs that the NAO won't be far behind, hopefully west-based - storm path trajectory should be further south then EPO cooperation and Feb is looking brighter !

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.mrf.gif

Let me guess, 10 days out?

[missygirl810]

Finally some good news!

The weather news these days swings every 6-12 hours . May go back negative by nightfall.

It's what makes things interesting around here....what's the fun in a model making an accurate forecast from 15 days out???

So we can avoid that lol

[Lagreeneyes03]

The weather news these days swings every 6-12 hours . May go back negative by nightfall.

It's what makes things interesting around here....what's the fun in a model making an accurate forecast from 15 days out???

https://imgur.com/Irmms0v

So we can avoid that lol

I'm so storm starved, that actually looks like fun to me.

[bubba hotep]

Appears like there is a really nice looking AO tank on the horizon! Signs that the NAO won't be far behind, hopefully west-based - storm path trajectory should be further south then EPO cooperation and Feb is looking brighter !

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.mrf.gif

Typically, the NAO follows the AO but the models are wanting to keep it mostly neutral. That may be a result of systems rotating around the TPV and breaking into the NAO region.

[orangeblood]

Appears like there is a really nice looking AO tank on the horizon! Signs that the NAO won't be far behind, hopefully west-based - storm path trajectory should be further south then EPO cooperation and Feb is looking brighter !

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.mrf.gif

Typically, the NAO follows the AO but the models are wanting to keep it mostly neutral. That may be a result of systems rotating around the TPV and breaking into the NAO region.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

I would think such a Strongly Negative AO would begin to overwhelm the weakening TPV

[Ralph's Weather]

Appears like there is a really nice looking AO tank on the horizon! Signs that the NAO won't be far behind, hopefully west-based - storm path trajectory should be further south then EPO cooperation and Feb is looking brighter !

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.mrf.gif

Typically, the NAO follows the AO but the models are wanting to keep it mostly neutral. That may be a result of systems rotating around the TPV and breaking into the NAO region.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Ugh, we really need a -/+ PNA with a EPO ridge pumping into AK or the AK/YK border. Pull the cold back west. May have to wait on the PV to relax and allow the NAO to shove things back though. After next week we look to enter a building period and hopefully the 2/10-2/20 period pays off.