Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

This thread needs to be more fired up !

Start something ! Were about to get a Blizard in 3 days and its not very active !

Well personally I'm still waiting for the models to pull the low further south to the position in which the latest EC had. If they don't I wouldn't say blizzard just yet at least not for the DFW area.

[srainhoutx]

GGEM suggests some wrap around moisture for parts of NE TX as well as S Central to SE TX as the Upper low passes...

[Weatherdude20]

This thread needs to be more fired up !

Start something ! Were about to get a Blizard in 3 days and its not very active !

Well personally I'm still waiting for the models to pull the low further south to the position in which the latest EC had. If they don't I wouldn't say blizzard just yet at least not for the DFW area.

Hmm, appears true. Haha,, hopefully the low is on a track further south.

[WacoWx]

and Waco misses out on yet another potential winter storm. I think i am goeographically unlucky.

[Ntxw]

and Waco misses out on yet another potential winter storm. I think i am goeographically unlucky.

I wouldn't give up quite yet, there are hints of changes as the models have continued to change constantly even amongst each other. Track is everything with these types of intense systems. Usually the Dallas area is always on the dividing line between snow and rain, this year we've been lucky to be on the snow side. Well at least the western half of the metro.

[CaptinCrunch]

wont have a clear picture till tomorrow afternoon and new models and data

[Ntxw]

Fyi, OKC nws has issued winter storm watches for their area. This would include the Wichita Falls region in our state from them.

[TexasStorm]

NWS in Norman, OK already has southern OK and Red River area under a Winter Storm Watch 72 hours ahead of the event. That is rare for NWS to put out watches this early. Should be interesting.

[wxgirl69]

Cold but no snow for us in Southeast Texas.. WXman57 has chimed in and said NO....

[Weatherdude20]

NWS in Norman, OK already has southern OK and Red River area under a Winter Storm Watch 72 hours ahead of the event. That is rare for NWS to put out watches this early. Should be interesting.

That is extremely rare, and means ALOT. That is more promising....

[mysterymachinebl]

NWS in Norman, OK already has southern OK and Red River area under a Winter Storm Watch 72 hours ahead of the event. That is rare for NWS to put out watches this early. Should be interesting.

That is extremely rare, and means ALOT. That is more promising....

I agree! And the fact that NWS Ft Worth has even mentioned the possibility of snow this far out hopefully means something good on the horizon for us!

[cheezyWXguy]

NWS in Norman, OK already has southern OK and Red River area under a Winter Storm Watch 72 hours ahead of the event. That is rare for NWS to put out watches this early. Should be interesting.

That is extremely rare, and means ALOT. That is more promising....

I agree! And the fact that NWS Ft Worth has even mentioned the possibility of snow this far out hopefully means something good on the horizon for us!

Yeah they even mentioned that the new models show more precip behind the front as well in the new update. Afternoon AFD is going to be interesting

[Ntxw]

I am amazed at how the EC keeps trying to shift it south. The core of energy appears to straddle along the red river. And some kind of gulf low forming?

[Weatherdude20]

That is amazing. . .

[srainhoutx]

Cold but no snow for us in Southeast Texas.. WXman57 has chimed in and said NO....

2 meter data out of the 12z GFS still has some hope For IAH:

96 01/29 12Z 45 43 324 14 0.81 0.17 554 567 8.4 -14.4 1015.4 100 -TSRA
102 01/29 18Z 40 37 339 14 0.02 0.00 551 566 7.0 -14.9 1019.8 100 -RA
108 01/30 00Z 38 32 345 12 0.01 0.00 547 564 -0.7 -16.5 1021.8 100 -SN
114 01/30 06Z 35 30 346 10 0.00 0.00 545 565 0.0 -17.7 1025.6 100
120 01/30 12Z 30 25 347 9 0.00 0.00 547 568 0.9 -14.4 1027.1 83 -SN
126 01/30 18Z 40 23 3 8 0.00 0.00 549 571 1.3 -14.0 1028.1 11

We shall see.

[Weatherdude20]

If the EC is shifting it south, we would get MORE Precip.

[funster]

Quite a change going from bitter cold to 70s and then possibly back to winter precip again by the end of this week. Wild winter.

[srainhoutx]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
133 PM EST MON JAN 25 2010

VALID 12Z THU JAN 28 2010 - 12Z MON FEB 01 2010

...MAJOR WINTER STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID-SRN US TIER
STATES...

TELECONNECTIONS WITH A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY NEAR 50N 150W FAVOR
RIDGING ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE WRN US...DEEP
COLD TROUGHING DUG DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL US...AND
AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET CUTTING UNDERNEATH THROUGH
THE US SRN TIER STATES. THIS FLOW AND EVEN WITH GUIDANCE BRINGING
ERN PACIFIC TROUGH ENERGY ALOFT INCREASINGLY INLAND ACROSS THE
WEST-CENTRAL US BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE
ON THESE IDEAS AND FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
NORMAL DAYS 3-7 DESPITE SMALLER SCALE DETAIL VARIANCE.

HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS/UKMET AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY OUTPACE THE REMAINDER OF DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE. WITH SOLUTIONS OVERALL ON THE FAST EDGE
OF THE FULL ARRAY OF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...THE 00Z
GFS/UKMET WERE CONSIDERED PLAUSIBLE BUT LESS LIKELY OPTIONS. OF
THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE KEPT BETTER
DAY-TO-DAY CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH SYSTEM TIMING
AND GENERAL TRACK...CLUSTERING CLOSELY WITH THE BULK OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBER GUIDANCE. DUE TO THEIR GOOD CONTINUITY AND FAVORABLE
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT/LOW SPREAD...FINAL HPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS CLOSE CONTINUITY AND REMAINS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A
BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN...A SOLUTION CLUSTER NOW GENERALLY
JOINED BY THE 06Z GFS AND MUCH 12Z GUIDANCE.

IN THIS PATTERN...THERE IS A MAJOR THREAT FOR HEAVY GULF COAST
STATES PCPN WITH A PRONOUNCED SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOW/ICE
FURTHER INLAND AS SRN STREAM SYSTEM ENERGY PROGRESSES UNDERNEATH
SOUTHWARD SUNK NRN STREAM COLD AIR. THE MAIN WINTER THREAT SEEMS
TO FOCUS OVERTOP LOW PASSAGE SPREADING THU-SAT FROM THE SRN PLAINS
TO THE MID-LOWER MS AND TN/OH VALLEYS THEN SOUTH-CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. 00Z GUIDANCE TRENDS AND
INCREASED FLOW SEPARATION BETWEEN THE POLAR VORTEX AND THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE SRN AND ERN US DECREASED SUBSEQUENT HEAVY SNOW
THREAT FOR NEW ENGLAND WITH COASTAL LOW DEEPENING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...06/12Z GUIDANCE HAS TO SOME DEGREE REVERSED
THAT TREND AS PER MORE WINTERY PCPN INLAND ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF
THE WRAP-BACK PCPN SHIELD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SE NEW
ENG...ALBEIT WITH THE 12Z UKMET/ECMWF SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSIVE.
THIS HIGHLIGHTS LINGERING MODEL RUN TO RUN SENSITIVITY WITH LESS
PREDICTABLE SMALLER SCALE COMPONENTS AND INTERACTIONS THAT MAY NOT
BE RESOLVED UNTIL SHORT RANGE TIME SCALES.

ROTH/SCHICHTEL

[WacoWx]

and Waco misses out on yet another potential winter storm. I think i am goeographically unlucky.

I wouldn't give up quite yet, there are hints of changes as the models have continued to change constantly even amongst each other. Track is everything with these types of intense systems. Usually the Dallas area is always on the dividing line between snow and rain, this year we've been lucky to be on the snow side. Well at least the western half of the metro.

thanks...i needed that!

[Weatherdude20]

and Waco misses out on yet another potential winter storm. I think i am goeographically unlucky.

I wouldn't give up quite yet, there are hints of changes as the models have continued to change constantly even amongst each other. Track is everything with these types of intense systems. Usually the Dallas area is always on the dividing line between snow and rain, this year we've been lucky to be on the snow side. Well at least the western half of the metro.

thanks...i needed that!

Yeah, Waco is definitely not out of the woods yet.