Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ralph's Weather]

What does the Euro have for these 0z lows? Are they as wild as the GFS?

Tuesday morning Euro is a bit colder than prior runs. Most models pretty much held stay for snow and Tues lows. GFS still showing widespread sub zero, GFS Para and Canadian are single digits, Euro even has single digits for DFW.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I didnt even see the GFS showing more snow and ice for SE Tx on Thursday lol

[Iceresistance]

GFS @ 156 hr = 8F in my area wtf

It's trying to make late-1800s weather for our area. If it's going to be that cold, we need an 1895 storm.

There was the Great Chill of 1899 . . .

[Iceresistance]

Freezing Mist ouside, thin sheets of Ice on the Road & Driveway, school is Online today.

19°F outside

[orangeblood]

Latest GFS now approaching the all-time record low at DFW . It’s Ensembles are trending that direction as well!

[gpsnowman]

Freezing Mist ouside, thin sheets of Ice on the Road & Driveway, school is Online today.

19°F outside

I am going to throw a wild guess out there that you will be more focused on weather today!!! I remember The Professor was posting on the forum while in class many years ago. Keep up with the posts, your enthusiasm is infectious.

[Iceresistance]

0z Euro has a very large swath of 10:1 Snow Ratio of 7-9 inches across Oklahoma, & 3-4 inches (Higher in Bands) in Texas (North of I-10)

Actual totals are likely HIGHER

[HockeyTx82]

Correct me if I'm wrong. But have we ever seen such consistency in extreme temperatures on model runs? Usually it's a 300 hrs out thing but with certain models every run keeps showing it and perhaps colder on each? We are no longer 300 hrs out.

At what point do you say, yup it's going to get that cold here.

[InfernoFlameCat]

6z gfs is what Texas has been looking for. in 6 days a massive snowstorm is forecast to sweep through near all of Texas, including southwest Houston. This may be a bigger event than the last eventful storm, especially in East Texas.

[Ralph's Weather]

6z gfs is what Texas has been looking for. in 6 days a massive snowstorm is forecast to sweep through near all of Texas, including southwest Houston. This may be a bigger event than the last eventful storm, especially in East Texas.

Not sure it beats the 8 inches that Central East Texas had in Jan but it well may. This snow looks to be even more widespread than the Jan storm which is incredible.

[orangeblood]

These Ensemble members are mind blowing!!

[Iceresistance]

0z GFS has Storm #3 almost nonexistant, but Storm #2 is strong & lasts for over 30 hours.



24-hour Kuchera Ratio snowfall



Vs. 6z GFS run, 3 storms instead of 0z's 2.



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall

[Ntxw]

These Ensemble members are mind blowing!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-ensemble-all/KDFW/indiv_tmp/1612936800/1612936800-qb46CTrHym4.png

It may be that now the models are reflecting what could really happen that the event is closing in. 28F this morning at DFW is slapping the models around.

History could be brewing.

Here in a few days we could be under all kinds of warnings. Hard freeze warning, wind chill warnings, blizzard warnings (if the wind is there Monday and believe it in an arctic air mass it could very well happen), stuff you read about but never see in this part of the world.

[Iceresistance]

KWTV-News 9 at 6:50 AM

They are saying 4-8 inches of snow by the time the 2 potental snowstorms ends next week . . .

[Iceresistance]

0z CMC calling for 2 snowstorms (Storm #2 & 3 merged into one big storm) across the Southern Plains this Weekend into Next Week



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio snowfall (Heavier in Bands)

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Local TV mets are mentioning sleet more for Thursday morning. Although still dangerous, a much better and safer option than freezing rain. And then our beautiful snow on Saturday and Monday. Watching snow fall and stick while temps are in the teens will be amazing to witness. Cant wait!!!

The only TV weathermen that actually forecast reasonably well locally are on nbc5 other than Evan Andrews on fox 4.

[gpsnowman]

Local TV mets are mentioning sleet more for Thursday morning. Although still dangerous, a much better and safer option than freezing rain. And then our beautiful snow on Saturday and Monday. Watching snow fall and stick while temps are in the teens will be amazing to witness. Cant wait!!!

The only TV weathermen that actually forecast reasonably well locally are on nbc5 other than Evan Andrews on fox 4.

Agreed. I do alot of flip flopping between the two channels. I've always been an NBC guy because of Harold Taft and a young David Finfrock back in mid 80's. Dan Henry of FOX 4 is a good one as well.

[dhweather]

Correct me if I'm wrong. But have we ever seen such consistency in extreme temperatures on model runs? Usually it's a 300 hrs out thing but with certain models every run keeps showing it and perhaps colder on each? We are no longer 300 hrs out.

At what point do you say, yup it's going to get that cold here.

The GFS nailed the large scale synoptics, and has been rather consistent run to run. Only time will tell if we get record cold.

[bubba hotep]

[Iceresistance]

0z GEFS Ensembles



Snowfall Loop


Mean Snowfall (9-10 inches in Central Oklahoma & 5-7 inches in DFW)


6z GEFS Ensembles


Snowfall Loop


Mean Snowfall (8-10 inches in Central Oklahoma & 6-9 inches in DFW)