Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

Euro trying to deliver a big hitter with plenty of cold over the top?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2023012312/ec-fast_z500aNorm_namer_9.png

No question it's going to get very cold, all the guidance are in that direction. Question will be how many shots of it will we get and will the big one come?

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro almost identical to CMC of Siberian drain

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nhemi/z500_anom/1674475200/1675080000-6RWE65DxMf0.png

Euro tries to hold it up as much as it can initially but very close to major set up.

Yep, a couple of initial thoughts:

1) The Globals are eroding the shallow cold away too quickly after 1st front

2) If PV gets too strong, it could destroy any system coming out of southwest

[TropicalTundra]

Weather apps have me falling to 50 degrees by evening, 46 degrees by midnight and low 40's by morning. I will update if I record any busts

[SnowintheFalls]

Local mets are still unsure about the transition to snow and how much we might get. Definitely a tricky forecast even this close to the event apparently.

[Iceresistance]

Winter Storm Warning issued for Oklahoma

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
123 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

OKZ014-016-021>023-027>038-040-042-241100-
/O.UPG.KOUN.WS.A.0001.230124T1200Z-230125T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.W.0001.230124T1200Z-230125T1200Z/
Roger Mills-Custer-Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Grady-McClain-Cleveland-
Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-Tillman-
Comanche-Garvin-Pontotoc-
Including the cities of Cheyenne, Hammon, Weatherford, Clinton,
Elk City, Sayre, Cordell, Burns Flat, Sentinel, Anadarko, Hinton,
Chickasha, Tuttle, Purcell, Newcastle, Blanchard, Norman, Moore,
Shawnee, Seminole, Wewoka, Holdenville, Wetumka, Hollis, Mangum,
Granite, Hobart, Snyder, Altus, Frederick, Lawton, Pauls Valley,
Lindsay, Wynnewood, and Ada
123 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to
6 inches. Isolated higher amounts possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, southeast,
southern, southwest and western Oklahoma.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions call 8 4 4 4 6 5 4 9 9 7.

[txtwister78]

Local mets are still unsure about the transition to snow and how much we might get. Definitely a tricky forecast even this close to the event apparently.

It's really a degree or two difference dynamically between a rain/snow mix (less accumulations) to all snow and so that's why mets are being overly cautious I think as these are boom/bust scenarios anytime you have events that are entirely driven by these cold core systems. Soil temps are also a factor and so it's going to take a little time for things to accumulate.

Obviously, moisture/precip won't be an issue and so the faster the turnover can occur the more opportunity for higher totals. Still a tough forecast (accumulation wise) despite the fact that snow is pretty much a given for parts of TX into Oklahoma.

[rwfromkansas]

12Z Euro almost identical to CMC of Siberian drain

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nhemi/z500_anom/1674475200/1675080000-6RWE65DxMf0.png

Euro tries to hold it up as much as it can initially but very close to major set up.

Yep, a couple of initial thoughts:

1) The Globals are eroding the shallow cold away too quickly after 1st front

2) If PV gets too strong, it could destroy any system coming out of southwest

How strong is too strong with the PV? I don't know much about it frankly.

[txtwister78]

Latest HRRR is a good example of the forecasting headache based on accumulations. This latest extended run has been trending keeping parts of the OKC metro in a rain/snow mix longer and thus limiting accumulations.

[orangeblood]

Euro tries to hold it up as much as it can initially but very close to major set up.

Yep, a couple of initial thoughts:

1) The Globals are eroding the shallow cold away too quickly after 1st front

2) If PV gets too strong, it could destroy any system coming out of southwest

How strong is too strong with the PV? I don't know much about it frankly.

As shown on latest Euro Op, Sub 470 over Hudson Bay is a major problem for a Big Storm across the southern US. It will destroy most disturbances coming out of the southwest rotating around the base of the Polar Jet or PV wheel. You can still get minor precip disturbances but usually nothing major

[SnowintheFalls]

Latest HRRR is a good example of the forecasting headache based on accumulations. This latest extended run has been trending keeping parts of the OKC metro in a rain/snow mix longer and thus limiting accumulations.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/scentus/refc_ptype/1674496800/1674597600-6KyftzNkAtM.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/total_snow_10to1/1674496800/1674619200-XeDGeK56H1A.png

We have some good mets locally but boy do I not envy them having to forecast scenarios like this!

[EnnisTx]

Latest HRRR is a good example of the forecasting headache based on accumulations. This latest extended run has been trending keeping parts of the OKC metro in a rain/snow mix longer and thus limiting accumulations.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/scentus/refc_ptype/1674496800/1674597600-6KyftzNkAtM.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/total_snow_10to1/1674496800/1674619200-XeDGeK56H1A.png

Oh no, not the dreaded heat island like Dallas. Looks like it's right over TECUMSEH OKLAHOMA!

[Brent]

Finally a watch for me for 2-5 inches. Though that HRRR run is a bit concerning

[Iceresistance]

Latest HRRR is a good example of the forecasting headache based on accumulations. This latest extended run has been trending keeping parts of the OKC metro in a rain/snow mix longer and thus limiting accumulations.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/scentus/refc_ptype/1674496800/1674597600-6KyftzNkAtM.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/total_snow_10to1/1674496800/1674619200-XeDGeK56H1A.png

Oh no, not the dreaded heat island like Dallas. Looks like it's right over TECUMSEH OKLAHOMA!

Oh come on! I would be mad if that happened! It's either this, or what the Canadian and RGEM featured!

[Ralph's Weather]

These kinds of systems can bring huge surprises. The NW side will feature heavy wet snow and the SE side will pump in moisture from the Gulf. Someone north of I-30 could see 1 foot while nearby is all rain.

[Brent]

I've been NAM'ed again.. and it's usually good at this range?

[Iceresistance]

I've been NAM'ed again.. and it's usually good at this range?

So did I, but you got NAMed even harder!

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1617607036937859072

[Gotwood]

Currently 55 at my place 10 miles East or so from being in the winter weather advisory. I can see clouds already building in the west towards Abilene was hoping to get some clear sky cooling after sundown but that doesn’t look to be in the cards.

[Gotwood]

Is there a small cold front associated with this storm? I see the hourly grafts show the wind pick up from the north. If so do we have a track on it?

[Haddox12]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1617607036937859072?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

He seems to call for an ‘83/‘21 type storm a couple times a winter.