Texas Winter 2021-2022

[rwfromkansas]

66 in north Fort Worth for my low. Too warm. Lol

[Cpv17]

The GEFS still doesn’t look good. Has us above normal for basically the entire run.

[Cpv17]

66 in north Fort Worth for my low. Too warm. Lol

I had 73 in Wharton. DP was 71.

[CaptinCrunch]

The GEFS still doesn’t look good. Has us above normal for basically the entire run.

IT takes time for a new pattern to take hold after you see the teleconnections make their change. Don't look for a shift in this current pattern till after December 20th. It's not about what we have now or even over the next 7 days, it's about what we get heading into Christmas, New Years and the rest of our Winter.

Carrying the flame and keeping the faith!

[Cpv17]

The GEFS still doesn’t look good. Has us above normal for basically the entire run.

IT takes time for a new pattern to take hold after you see the teleconnections make their change. Don't look for a shift in this current pattern till after December 20th. It's not about what we have now or even over the next 7 days, it's about what we get heading into Christmas, New Years and the rest of our Winter.

Carrying the flame and keeping the faith!

The op looks decent but the ensemble is completely different.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has trended it north, but the storm is looking stronger compared to 6z . . .

ETA: The snow in Oklahoma is generally along & North of I-40

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS has trended it north, but the storm is looking stronger compared to 6z . . .

ETA: The snow in Oklahoma is generally along & North of I-40

12z GFS today is similar to yesterday's 12z with a freeze all the way to the gulf coast around December 21/22.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has trended it north, but the storm is looking stronger compared to 6z . . .

ETA: The snow in Oklahoma is generally along & North of I-40

12z GFS today is similar to yesterday's 12z with a freeze all the way to the gulf coast around December 21/22.

The Freeze down to the Gulf Coast is not as far down as it was in Yesterday's 12z Run

[Ntxw]

12z GFS has trended it north, but the storm is looking stronger compared to 6z . . .

ETA: The snow in Oklahoma is generally along & North of I-40

12z GFS today is similar to yesterday's 12z with a freeze all the way to the gulf coast around December 21/22.

The Freeze down to the Gulf Coast is not as far down as it was in Yesterday's 12z Run

Today's 12z run synoptically is better for cold during that period.

If you actually think about it lalalaland had this period as continued torch closer to Christmas but as the time period is coming closer (on Euro and other guidance as well 19th-21st) it started showing up with cold air moving in and ending the torch. So you can technically say the warmth was a headfake and it's losing it.

[WinterMax]

12z GFS today is similar to yesterday's 12z with a freeze all the way to the gulf coast around December 21/22.

The Freeze down to the Gulf Coast is not as far down as it was in Yesterday's 12z Run

But since it's so far out, I've seen runs like this slowly warm to a full torch by 4 or 5 days out. Lol.

Of course i know that there are other factors lining up for that time frame, and those are way above my paygrade lol

Today's 12z run synoptically is better for cold during that period.

If you actually think about it lalalaland had this period as continued torch closer to Christmas but as the time period is coming closer (on Euro and other guidance as well 19th-21st) it started showing up with cold air moving in and ending the torch. So you can technically say the warmth was a headfake and it's losing it.

[WinterMax]

12z GFS today is similar to yesterday's 12z with a freeze all the way to the gulf coast around December 21/22.

The Freeze down to the Gulf Coast is not as far down as it was in Yesterday's 12z Run

But since it's so far out, I've seen runs like this slowly warm to a full torch by 4 or 5 days out. Lol.

Of course i know that there are other factors lining up for that time frame, and those are way above my paygrade lol

Today's 12z run synoptically is better for cold during that period.

If you actually think about it lalalaland had this period as continued torch closer to Christmas but as the time period is coming closer (on Euro and other guidance as well 19th-21st) it started showing up with cold air moving in and ending the torch. So you can technically say the warmth was a headfake and it's losing it.

[NDG]

GEFS still not on board with its Operational.

[Ntxw]

But since it's so far out, I've seen runs like this slowly warm to a full torch by 4 or 5 days out. Lol.

Totally understand the 4-5 day thing. We're not talking blasting cold, we're discussing how this torch is coming to an end for the Central US. And especially for those east of the MS it may not end until the new year. The further west you are the sooner it will end.

If you read back in this thread most of us believed it may just torch through the winter because of the EPO but we've been given some hope things will change.

[Cpv17]

GEFS still not on board with its Operational.

https://i.imgur.com/mHXY2ca.png

This is why I’m not too confident in a change.

[Ntxw]

GEFS still not on board with its Operational.

https://i.imgur.com/mHXY2ca.png

This is why I’m not too confident in a change.

For what period? The next 7-10 days is a torch. The only thing cutting into that is a blip cold snap the OPs are showing around the solstice to break it up some. After that even the GEFS slowly breaks it down.

[Cpv17]

GEFS still not on board with its Operational.

https://i.imgur.com/mHXY2ca.png

This is why I’m not too confident in a change.

For what period? The next 7-10 days is a torch. The only thing cutting into that is a blip cold snap the OPs are showing around the solstice to break it up some. After that even the GEFS slowly breaks it down.

The front right before Christmas. GEFS is still showing well above average temps. Was always told when you look at long range, it’s better to look at ensembles rather than the op.

[Ntxw]

This is why I’m not too confident in a change.

For what period? The next 7-10 days is a torch. The only thing cutting into that is a blip cold snap the OPs are showing around the solstice to break it up some. After that even the GEFS slowly breaks it down.

The front right before Christmas. GEFS is still showing well above average temps. Was always told when you look at long range, it’s better to look at ensembles rather than the op.

That's actually incorrect. The solstice cold front IS showing up on the GEFS. It's not a blowtorch in Texas or the Plains. But you're also looking at a blend. So you'll have some warm members and some cold members, average it.



The EPO is trending down this week (lagging warmth) so it won't be fighting the cold source as much.

[Iceresistance]

For what period? The next 7-10 days is a torch. The only thing cutting into that is a blip cold snap the OPs are showing around the solstice to break it up some. After that even the GEFS slowly breaks it down.

The front right before Christmas. GEFS is still showing well above average temps. Was always told when you look at long range, it’s better to look at ensembles rather than the op.

That's actually incorrect. The solstice cold front IS showing up on the GEFS. It's not a blowtorch in Texas or the Plains. But you're also looking at a blend. So you'll have some warm members and some cold members, average it.

https://i.imgur.com/EVUrYLS.png

The EPO is trending down this week (lagging warmth) so it won't be fighting the cold source as much.

Also a stronger signal for that one as well at +384 hours, MUCH stronger compared to 6z

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro is showing Winter Precip in Western & Northern Texas, & Southern Oklahoma

[orangeblood]

12z Euro is showing Winter Precip in Western & Northern Texas, & Southern Oklahoma

The other Operationals are seeing it too....1040+HP coming out of Canada with a S/W out of the southwest. Bear Watch!!!!