Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Weatherdude20]

I think that this is going to be a very potent, agressive storm system in many ways.

2010 January 28 Danger Hazards for FORT WORTH

-.75 of an inch of rain.

-Then .30 of an inch of sleet, wet snow... (ICE)

-Then on top of that dangerous ice layer 1-3 inches of snow and freezing temps freezing all moisture from the event.

Note: Strong winds, moderate precip, and sub feezing temps could cause frostbite, or cause very negative impacts.

[wxman57]

I think this would be correct on the current storm track, however a futher south track across TX would pull the colder air in faster, and increase the wrap around moisture as well increasing the chances for ice/snow fall across the D/FW area and east. would that not be correct?

Right, the plot I posted was of raw GFS numbers assuming the current forecast track is correct. If the storm track is farther south, then the winter weather threat shifts south.

Checking the 12Z Euro, it's farther north than the GFS with the storm track. The Canadian is farther north than the GFS, too. GFS does tend to keep these storms too far to the south. Nothing in the models to indicate that the track will be farther south at this time.

[CaptinCrunch]

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCE
FOR WINTER PRECIP/SNOW ON THURSDAY. THE NEW GFS HAS COME IN COLDER
AND MORE EXPANSIVE WITH ITS PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL
CONTINUE EVALUATE ADDITIONAL DATA AS IT COMES IN

.

I think NWS DFW may be seeing the more southerly track as well, but still wont jump on any bandwagons till Tuesday evening when we have a much better picture of just where this storm is going and how fast the cold air filters in.

[msstateguy83]

maybe we have some disagreements with how far south ie dallas-fortworth BUT i would HOPE we could all atleast somewhat agree that this looks very nasty for folks along i-44 basically from nw tx up into ok for thursday
from wichita falls up to okc, tulsa... per my graphic earlyer i think the heavy snow will be on the north side of i-44 with a major ice storm setting up on the southside.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[CaptinCrunch]

I think this would be correct on the current storm track, however a futher south track across TX would pull the colder air in faster, and increase the wrap around moisture as well increasing the chances for ice/snow fall across the D/FW area and east. would that not be correct?

Right, the plot I posted was of raw GFS numbers assuming the current forecast track is correct. If the storm track is farther south, then the winter weather threat shifts south.

Checking the 12Z Euro, it's farther north than the GFS with the storm track. The Canadian is farther north than the GFS, too. GFS does tend to keep these storms too far to the south. Nothing in the models to indicate that the track will be farther south at this time.

This is true, btu I have seen on rare events where the EURO and CA models jump on with the GFS right before D-Day.

[Portastorm]

I know one thing ... if the 12z Euro from today were to verify ... locales in my part of the state would have a shot at some freezing precip. However, the model has a known bias for holding back too much low pressure and not being progressive enough.

Not getting my kicking shoes on just yet, Lucy! But if I'm living in Amarillo or Lubbock or Wichita Falls, I would be.

Not sure what you're looking at, Portastorm. I don't see any frozen precip near Austin in the 12Z ECMWF. The precip would be long-gone by the time temps are cold enough.

Oh no you don't Wxman57 ... I will not let you serve me a poo-poo platter on this one!

The 12z Euro holds back more moisture at the 700 mb level and develops a surface low near Brownsville, does it not? Granted I'm looking at the free site which has a lousy resolution and only goes in 24-hour bits and I'm sure you have the more refined Euro access. Those two elements alone could be enough to create sufficient moisture for sleet pellets or wet flurries to fall on the Portastorm Weather Center in SW Austin.

Waiting for the smackdown ...

[wxman57]

maybe we have some disagreements with how far south ie dallas-fortworth BUT i would HOPE we could all atleast somewhat agree that this looks very nasty for folks along i-44 basically from nw tx up into ok for thursday
from wichita falls up to okc, tulsa... per my graphic earlyer i think the heavy snow will be on the north side of i-44 with a major ice storm setting up on the southside.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

If you mean I-40, then I agree. Could get nasty along there from OKC to NW Arkansas. Looks like anything falling in Wichita Falls would be snow Thursday night. The freezing rain would be north of the storm track before the cold air gets deep enough.

[wxman57]

I know one thing ... if the 12z Euro from today were to verify ... locales in my part of the state would have a shot at some freezing precip. However, the model has a known bias for holding back too much low pressure and not being progressive enough.

Not getting my kicking shoes on just yet, Lucy! But if I'm living in Amarillo or Lubbock or Wichita Falls, I would be.

Not sure what you're looking at, Portastorm. I don't see any frozen precip near Austin in the 12Z ECMWF. The precip would be long-gone by the time temps are cold enough.

Oh no you don't Wxman57 ... I will not let you serve me a poo-poo platter on this one!

The 12z Euro holds back more moisture at the 700 mb level and develops a surface low near Brownsville, does it not? Granted I'm looking at the free site which has a lousy resolution and only goes in 24-hour bits and I'm sure you have the more refined Euro access. Those two elements alone could be enough to create sufficient moisture for sleet pellets or wet flurries to fall on the Portastorm Weather Center in SW Austin.

Waiting for the smackdown ...

The low will be up in NE TX along the front, not near Brownsville. See where all the isobars tighten up in NE TX here? That's where the low will be:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/f96.gif

[Weatherdude20]

Not getting my kicking shoes on just yet, Lucy! But if I'm living in Amarillo or Lubbock or Wichita Falls, I would be. [/quote]

Not sure what you're looking at, Portastorm. I don't see any frozen precip near Austin in the 12Z ECMWF. The precip would be long-gone by the time temps are cold enough.[/quote]

Oh no you don't Wxman57 ... I will not let you serve me a poo-poo platter on this one!

The 12z Euro holds back more moisture at the 700 mb level and develops a surface low near Brownsville, does it not? Granted I'm looking at the free site which has a lousy resolution and only goes in 24-hour bits and I'm sure you have the more refined Euro access. Those two elements alone could be enough to create sufficient moisture for sleet pellets or wet flurries to fall on the Portastorm Weather Center in SW Austin.

Waiting for the smackdown ...[/quote]

The low will be up in NE TX along the front, not near Brownsville. See where all the isobars tighten up in NE TX here? That's where the low will be:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/f96.gif[/quote]

He's refering to a different low, and there actually is an additional low south of brownsville

[msstateguy83]

just looking over the latest 18z nam... iam prepared to say looking @ the latest we are going to see almost
REPEAT of HEAVY SNOW BANDS setting up along interstate 44 again like the christmas eve snowstorm from near
wichita falls to lawton to okc thu evening into friday morning... 6-12"+ likely in this area of snow.. some of this picture is still fuzzy as how far south this system will go exc,exc but iam fairly sure that i will be right again we will see... light amounts to the south again 1-4 inches of snow across dfw on top of 0.25 of frz rain & sleet...

EDIT: just so there is no confusion iam STILL betting on a change over to FRZING RAIN for i-44 south by wed night -thu eve until the upper levels cool enough..

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[srainhoutx]

CPC thoughts this afternoon...

[Weatherdude20]

Identifies the low Portrastorm is referring to on (ECMWF PRS/1000-500 MB)

[Weatherdude20]

just looking over the latest 18z nam... iam prepared to say looking @ the latest we are going to see almost
REPEAT of HEAVY SNOW BANDS setting up along interstate 44 again like the christmas eve snowstorm from near
wichita falls to lawton to okc thu evening into friday morning... 6-12"+ likely in this area of snow.. some of this picture is still fuzzy as how far south this system will go exc,exc but iam fairly sure that i will be right again we will see... light amounts to the south again 1-4 inches of snow across dfw on top of 0.25 of frz rain & sleet...

EDIT: just so there is no confusion iam STILL betting on a change over to FRZING RAIN for i-44 south by wed night -thu eve until the upper levels cool enough..

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Thank you, that is my opinion sharply ! That is exactly what I'm thinking !

[srainhoutx]

Ensemble Low tracks as of 20Z...

[Weatherdude20]

Depending on the temperature on the surface and above the surface will determine whether a given location receives freezing rain sleet or snow. Also depending on the depth of the cold air mass near the surface will define the precip type.

[Ntxw]

If anything this thread has sure awakened from the 2 weeks slumber all in good fun

[orangeblood]

I don't think we can pin point the exact storm track location until we have a better feel for how fast the cold front moves through. The storm should move along the boundary wherever it sets up. It appears all of these forecasts could change drastically if the front moves faster than the models depict, which most of the time they do.

[wxman57]

Identifies the low Portrastorm is referring to on (ECMWF PRS/1000-500 MB)

That's sort of a bogus low on the north-south oriented cold front on the 96hr ECMWF map. The storm low is in NE TX. You have to look at the isobar packing.

[wxman57]

I don't think we can pin point the exact storm track location until we have a better feel for how fast the cold front moves through. The storm should move along the boundary wherever it sets up. It appears all of these forecasts could change drastically if the front moves faster than the models depict, which most of the time they do.

You are correct. We're not certain how far south the cold air will penetrate as the low tracks across the region. However, nothing currently indicates significant problems in the Dallas area. All the models do agree on problems in central (possibly southern) Oklahoma. All the models have been quite consistent on the threat area for the past few days. Nothing to indicate any major changes are coming.

[Weatherdude20]

Identifies the low Portrastorm is referring to on (ECMWF PRS/1000-500 MB)

That's sort of a bogus low on the north-south oriented cold front on the 96hr ECMWF map. The storm low is in NE TX. You have to look at the isobar packing.

I was just pointing out what Portastorm was refering to.