Texas Winter 2024-2025

[DallasAg]

Started sleeting just as I was finishing my run. Still 35.4 here.

[HockeyTx82]

Started sleeting just as I was finishing my run. Still 35.4 here.

Yeah, I did my run last night. These last few mornings have been very refreshing however for runs, with the right gear it's not bad.

[MSUDawg]

37 in north Carrollton this morning. A pretty good amount of sleet just came down in the first 5 minutes. I look like I should be on the south edge of the wave moving thru to the NE right now. Come on sleet cool things down!

[HockeyTx82]

Now we have big fat snowflakes

[gpsnowman]

Now we have big fat snowflakes

Sweet. Now I need to go check after lying back down.

[wxman22]

Already have some light snow accumulation on the ground here. OUN has increased snowfall accumulation also.

[cstrunk]

Woke up to 33F/25F here, so above freezing but not as high as others it seems.

Looking at radar, precip shield seems farther north than I expected. I suppose it will fill in later as it moves east.

[Brent]

Already have some light snow accumulation on the ground here. OUN has increased snowfall accumulation also.

https://i.ibb.co/T879Fd0/IMG-0149.png

Yeah I'm feeling pretty optimistic here. This is way different than the setups the last couple years where there was barely any moisture

[wxman22]

Getting moderate snow now!

[losf1981]

Already have some light snow accumulation on the ground here. OUN has increased snowfall accumulation also.

https://i.ibb.co/T879Fd0/IMG-0149.png

yes, had to run to the office to grab my laptop and it was sleet/slush, then big fat snow flakes and now it's coming down pretty good

[JayDT]

Starting here too. Light mix in southwest Dallas county.

[HockeyTx82]

Now we have big fat snowflakes

Sweet. Now I need to go check after lying back down.

Yeah it bursted for a bit, now it's back to a mixed bag.

I like my chances, I told my wife and kids the main show is this afternoon into tonight.

[Ralph's Weather]

This morning the light stuff will be rain\sleet and the heavy stuff snow\sleet

[orangeblood]

Dunn has spoken. Close the thread, it's written in stone and we don't need any further input or model watching on this one. Can't believe it's knocking on our doorstep. Amazing watching the lead up, now it's time for the main course and our dessert will be memorable snow fun!

My dewpoint is 27.9F, confirmed on my weather station.

LOCK IT IN, Dunn has now confirmed what the Euro has been showing us all along starting around Jan 1. That model and it's ensembles have barely budged for over a week from the core axis of heavy winter precip that Dunn mentions here, from the Metroplex to Paris and points Northeast. This is the area that it honed in on once it locked in on the upper levels. All the other models have been on a wild roller coaster ride with the core of heaviest winter precip, very inconsistent. In the model world, consistency is usually the best indicator of pattern recognition. Phenomenal job by the Euro for this one!

Close examination of the frontal
circulation and forecast soundings during this time indicate the
potential for some conditional symmetric instability to develop
which will support the development of banded precipitation
oriented from northeast to southwest. There is even a low chance
for actual convective instability to develop producing a few
lightning strikes in convective sleet or snow showers. All of this
is most likely to occur this evening and early tonight (generally
from 5 pm through about 10 pm) and in a location from the
northern parts of the Metroplex to the Red River and over toward
Paris. A transition to all snow is expected mainly north of I-20
late tonight and overnight.

Widespread snowfall totals of 2 to 5 inches continues to be most
likely from the Metroplex northward into our northeast counties
through this event. Significantly higher totals...between 8 and
10 inches...will be possible in any bands that can develop
tonight. As mentioned above...this is most likely to occur from
the northern parts of the Metroplex toward the Red River and off
to the northeast.

[CaptinCrunch]

Rain/sleet mix here in Mansfield/Arlington, came down pretty good, enough to hear it hitting the ground and vehicles.

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.youtube.com/live/61uIL09tP4Y?feature=shared

I'm live streaming for a bit if anyone wants to see it.

[WacoWx]

Sleeting here. 35 temp, 25 dewpoint @ 7:30a.

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.youtube.com/live/61uIL09tP4Y?feature=shared

I'm live streaming for a bit if anyone wants to see it.

I'll live stream later if I get a good heavy snowfall, I went ahead and turned it off for now

[Gotwood]

31.8 93% humidity dew of 30. Pretty much just sleet but it’s cool yard is turning white kids won’t know the difference.

[BradKingK]

Looks like the warming may be too much for us in Tyler. MIL and BIL in Hot Springs area may have some tales to tell. Good writeup with plenty of nerdy details.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
557 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday Night)
Issued at 452 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

Our much anticipated winter storm continues to take shape across W
TX early this morning, with areas of IP/-FZRA having developed
well ahead of the still closed low noted on the water vapor
imagery spinning over Srn Baja. Imagery also indicates a
significant Nrn stream trough and associated jet streak diving S
through the Cntrl and Srn Rockies which will absorb this low later
today as it begins to open up and slowly eject ENE through Nrn Old
MX towards the TX Big Bend Region. Satellite imagery already
reveals cirrus and low AC cigs continuing to spread E across the
region, with temps having already risen a cpl degrees over the
last cpl hours over E TX where cigs are denser. This trend should
eventually trend farther E later this morning aided with the
onset on insolation, but the increase in elevated isentropic
ascent should help to saturate the air column, eventually aided by
increased overrunning as low level cyclogenesis develops late
this morning/midday ahead of the approaching trough along the
Middle TX coast.

Thermal profiles continue to support a IP/-SN mix at the onset of
precip over much of E TX, with -SN farther N across closer to the
Red River into SE OK/adjacent sections of SW AR in the deeper
subfreezing air. Sfc temps should be able to climb to near or
slightly above freezing by the time the precip arrives except
across the far NW zones, but evaporative cooling of the column
should help cool sfc temps closer to and below freezing by
afternoon as the column begins to saturate. Thus, some
accumulating sleet/snow will be possible as early as this
afternoon NW of the I-30 corridor, although temps farther E will
take more time to evaporatively cool (by mid to late afternoon) as
they approach the freezing mark. The short term progs have
trended a bit warmer with the thermal profiles later this
afternoon/tonight, suggesting a greater and deeper warm lyr that
could advect into Srn AR especially as the sfc low traverses the
far SE TX/Srn LA coasts. Thus, a faster transition from IP/-RA to
FZRA is now progged late this afternoon into this evening
especially along the LA/AR border into Srn AR/NE TX, thus tapering
back snowfall amounts over these areas and resulting in
potentially higher ice accums. Even some light ice accums are
possible across SE OK/adjacent sections of Wrn AR where previous
model runs suggested all snow, with snowfall amounts scaled back
slightly for this area except in the higher elevations of the
Ouachitas.

The million dollar question remains the position of the sfc freezing
line, with the HREF/HRRR seemingly a bit too warm in shifting this
line farther N towards the Red River into the Nrn sections of SW
AR. The NAM/last few runs of the GFS remain consistent with the
freezing line near or just N of the I-20 corridor of E TX into
extreme Nrn LA along the LA/AR border, although elevated warm
advection from the increased overrunning N of the low level low
should shift this line N overnight closer to I-30. Thus, what may
be a mix of RA/FZRA this evening may become all RA late this
evening/overnight SE of I-30, before the deeper cold wedge on the
backside of the NE ejecting sfc low begins to shift SE through E
TX/SW AR late.

Did not make any changes to the existing Winter Storm
Warnings/Advisories this morning, although some adjustments may be
needed later today especially along the Srn fringes especially
should temps remain just above freezing. But attm, it still
remains too close to call with where the freezing line will end up
once the column evaporatively cools. Did scale snowfall totals
back to 2-6" across NE TX/SW AR/SE OK, with isolated higher
amounts of 7-8+" possible across the higher terrain of Nrn
McCurtain County OK. Did increase ice accums (sleet/FZRA) up to a
third of an inch especially just below I-30 for the expected
deeper warm lyr intrusion, although this warm lyr will begin to
erode as the colder subfreezing column gradually deepens late on
the backside of the ejecting sfc low over SE LA. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible over Deep E TX into NCntrl LA this
evening and overnight especially in the area of increased
overrunning along a 50-55kt Srly LLJ, enhanced by strong
convergence along the attendant H925-850 inverted trough that will
extend from Deep E TX across NCntrl LA, where widespread rainfall
amounts of 2-3" are expected.

Areas of -SN should gradually shift E along and N of the I-20
corridor Friday morning, although additional snowfall accums will
be very light (if at all) as sfc temps along the Srn flank of the
precip remains just above freezing. Much drier air entraining ENE
ahead of the strongly positive tilt trough will quickly taper the
precipitation from W to E Friday morning, exiting the Ern zones by
midday/early afternoon. However, extensive wrap-around low stratus
and NW winds on the backside of the sfc low as well as the
existing snow/icepack will result temperatures struggling to climb
through the afternoon. Have again undercut the NBM guidance for
max temps both today and Friday to account for the increased cloud
cover/evaporative cooling today and the snowpack/stratus Friday,
although some clearing of the low clouds may occur late Friday
night from the NW as the upper trough drifts E into the MS Valley
and Big Bend Region.