Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[wxman57]

Identifies the low Portrastorm is referring to on (ECMWF PRS/1000-500 MB)

That's sort of a bogus low on the north-south oriented cold front on the 96hr ECMWF map. The storm low is in NE TX. You have to look at the isobar packing.

I was just pointing out what Portrastorm was referring to.

Yeah, I know. The European model has the low in the wrong spot. It should be placed where the isobar packing is up north (just ahead of the max PVA), as with this Canadian model panel:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/f84.gif

[Weatherdude20]

I see...

[Portastorm]

Identifies the low Portrastorm is referring to on (ECMWF PRS/1000-500 MB)

That's sort of a bogus low on the north-south oriented cold front on the 96hr ECMWF map. The storm low is in NE TX. You have to look at the isobar packing.

I was just pointing out what Portrastorm was refering to.

Weatherdude20 ... thanks for clarifying my point. Wxman57 is a wise and trusted source and I will, for now, defer to his judgment. But I will keep hope alive!

[orangeblood]

By the way, this is exactly what the models did with the Christmas Eve 2009 storm. They had it across northern Ok into southern Kansas in the 3-4 day range. Then the upper low ended up deepening even further south and tracked right across north Texas. Looks very similar to what the models have been doing all season - correcting to the south. In the past few winter seasons, I've noticed the models correcting to the north. But as most of us know by now, this season is nothing like the past few.

[vbhoutex]

Ok, let me get this straight. The low shown over Northern Mexico is a "bogus" low and will not figure into the overall equation here? I.e., it will not be throwing any moisture N over the cold air that will be in place/ moving in at that time?

[wxman57]

Weatherdude20 ... thanks for clarifying my point. Wxman57 is a wise and trusted source and I will, for now, defer to his judgment. But I will keep hope alive!

Keep your hope alive, Portastorm. But cast your eyes farther forward into February. This first storm system will rebuild the snow pack to our north. It's the storm (or storms) behind it that could bring freezing/frozen precip farther south into Texas.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Ok, let me get this straight. The low shown over Northern Mexico is a "bogus" low and will not figure into the overall equation here? I.e., it will not be throwing any moisture N over the cold air that will be in place/ moving in at that time?

The low that the EC shows near Brownsville is not the focus of this storm. The max PVA (all the energy) is along the Red River. Look along the Red River and northward for all the "action" with this storm.

P.S. My coworker has all the significant freezing rain from central Arkansas to the Missouri Border, with a little freezing rain in east-central OK. UP to 1/2" ice accumulations across the northern third of Arkansas. West that he has all snow across OK on the backside of the low.

[Weatherdude20]

I, as well am defering from his judgement.

Orangeblood, I agree on your statement, that is smart to note... The recent storm systems have trended further south. Which in this case will result in higher precip amounts.

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow: Ok, let me get this straight. The low shown over Northern Mexico is a "bogus" low and will not figure into the overall equation here? I.e., it will not be throwing any moisture N over the cold air that will be in place/ moving in at that time?

The low that the EC shows near Brownsville is not the focus of this storm. The max PVA (all the energy) is along the Red River. Look along the Red River and northward for all the "action" with this storm.

Thanks. I was just trying to clarify that that other low was not going to be doing much of anything. Your other posts have made it obvious where the "power" of this system is, but I saw that there and was wondering if it would have an effect after the "true storm" had moved through.

THANKS so much for your input here at STORM2K concerning this event.

[Weatherdude20]

I was never certain on the "bogus low" and I never made it clear on the effects and impacts it would have, In this circumstance Im siding with Wxman57 because the bogus low won't help or hurt the Winter Storm on Thursday because of its current track, and I was trying to address BOTH sides of the issue. By, making it clear what low Portastorm was refering to.

[southerngale]

Ah, phooey! I saw that there were about 5 pages of activity since last night and hoped that Old Man Winter Wonderland was coming to visit those of us in the Deep South but nope, no cigar. pfft!

[Ntxw]

For what it's worth, this is what FW area discussion has to say.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOST
NOTICEABLE DISCREPANCY IS THE TEMPERATURES. WHILE THE GFS HAS COME
IN MUCH COLDER WITH A TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOW...THE LATEST ECMWF HAS COME IN WARMER WITH THE COLD AIR
LAGGING BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER DISCREPANCY IS TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 6-12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE
SYSTEM. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20...THE 850 AND 700 MB LOWS ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE RED
RIVER AND ACROSS OKLAHOMA RESPECTIVELY. THESE TRACKS WOULD ALLOW
FOR NORTH TEXAS TO GET DRY SLOTTED THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW PRODUCTION. A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE 850 AND 700 MB LOWS WOULD BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW IN NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN ALL THE EVIDENCE
ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ADJUST THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE
SNOW LINE KEEPING IT ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRECKENRIDGE
TO BOYD TO SULPHUR SPRINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING BRINGING MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO NORTH TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
RIDGING ALOFT BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST
DAY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS KEEPING WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S DURING THE DAY. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

[southerngale]

Weatherdude20 ... thanks for clarifying my point. Wxman57 is a wise and trusted source and I will, for now, defer to his judgment. But I will keep hope alive!

Keep your hope alive, Portastorm. But cast your eyes farther forward into February. This first storm system will rebuild the snow pack to our north. It's the storm (or storms) behind it that could bring freezing/frozen precip farther south into Texas.

hmmm, hope?

Do you see anything on the horizon or just generally speaking based on this system rebuilding the snow pack and further cold shots?

[msstateguy83]

THE 18Z NAM SPEAKS FOR ITSELF.. TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH.. JUST WATCH THE NEXT FEW RUNS
I BET IT KEEPS UP.. GOING TO BE ALMOST A REPEAT.. I KNOW IT DOES NOT HAPPEN VERY OFTEN AT
ALL BUT THIS MY FRIENDS LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT JUST WITH ICE IN THE FORECAST AS WELL!

[attallaman]

I know one thing ... if the 12z Euro from today were to verify ... locales in my part of the state would have a shot at some freezing precip. However, the model has a known bias for holding back too much low pressure and not being progressive enough.

Not getting my kicking shoes on just yet, Lucy! But if I'm living in Amarillo or Lubbock or Wichita Falls, I would be.

Not sure what you're looking at, Portastorm. I don't see any frozen precip near Austin in the 12Z ECMWF. The precip would be long-gone by the time temps are cold enough.

Will this cold air as well as precipitation affect my area, coastal Mississippi? These temperatures at night won't be as low as a week or so ago will it? Are you talking about running the faucets all night kind of cold temps at night or not as cold at night?

[iorange55]

As is always the case it never looks like we're going to get much of anything, and just to our north and west will get pummeled , but it seems like as always especially this year it does end up effecting us. I get the models are not showing much of anything for us now, but they weren't showing much of anything before almost all the systems we've got winter precip out of this year.



I'm not going to hang on every model. Just going to wait, and see because it seems thats all you can do when it comes to winter weather events this far south.

[wxgirl69]

Weatherdude20 ... thanks for clarifying my point. Wxman57 is a wise and trusted source and I will, for now, defer to his judgment. But I will keep hope alive!

Keep your hope alive, Portastorm. But cast your eyes farther forward into February. This first storm system will rebuild the snow pack to our north. It's the storm (or storms) behind it that could bring freezing/frozen precip farther south into Texas.

Yeah!!! Thanks for keeping our hope alive.. I remember you saying that a few days ago in our local forum.. That's the one I am waiting to see what will happen

[rainman31]

The Dallas cbs team this morning had the temps dropping to 32 thursday with rain changing to snow on their 7 day forcast. I just took a look and they have changed it since this morning to temps dropping to 35 and a rain only event.

[mysterymachinebl]

The local cbs team this morning had the temps dropping to 32 thursday with rain changing to snow on their 7 day forcast. I just took a look and they have changed it since this morning to temps dropping to 35 and a rain only event.

I'm sure it will change several times between now and then.

[jasons2k]

Quite a bit warmer than NWS numbers from KPRC.com