Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[gofrogs2]

Whats is it saying snow wise.

[katheria]

Wow and double wow...

im quite normally on here LOL just read alot

BUT HOLY COW!

glad i went to the store today..have a feeling there is going to be a rush the next few days....

[Brent]

Most of that is rain.

[katheria]

Most of that is rain.

even the mention of ice/snow around here causes a panic in the general population LOL
needless to say people run to the stores...

[BrokenGlass]

I don't know what you're seeing on the GFS, because I don't know how to read it, but one thing is for certain, there will be a dry slot that sets up right over the top of Richardson/North Dallas and extending South by Southwest. 40 years in this godforsaken city tells me that.

[BrokenGlass]

afdfwd


Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
931 PM CST Monday Jan 25 2010


Update...
no major problems with the current forecast. Will increase cloud
cover across the region to account for the extensive...mainly
thin...cirrus. Will also adjust hourly temperature/dew point grids a bit.


Will continue to analyze the 00z model data with regards to the
system at the end of the week. Forecast soundings are having some
difficulty resolving the precipitation type. Early indications were a
rain/snow mix across the north but now things are looking a bit
more like a rain/freezing rain or freezing drizzle event...mainly
in the north. Still way too early to Pin Point anything so will
make no changes to the previous package regarding precipitation.


79


&&

[Texas Snowman]

Given the skill level of FW NWS in accurately pinpointing winter weather (they are great at severe weather, not so much with snow and ice IMO), not to mention the fact that the Christmas Eve storm was standing at the DFW doorstep before the forecast ante really got upped, I'm not placing any hard bets on anything at this point and time.

It seems to be becoming a bit more clear however that someone in Oklahoma is going to get clocked.

Question for me up here in the Red River region (5 miles from Lake Texoma) is does any of that significant winter weather really begin to trend southward in the next few days.

[funster]

With that much moisture around it should make a dry slot less likely. That it will be too warm is more likely to be what prevents it from snowing.

[Texas Snowman]

Here are the thoughts of KXII-TV met Steve LaNore on how this is shaping up for southern Oklahoma and extreme northern Texas:

UPDATE: 9:40p.m.
A light but steady wind is keeping the air stirred up a bit, so I raised the overnight lows into the mid and upper 20s, but it will still be plenty cold!

The more significant change is a trend in all of the models for a slightly slower winter storm situation. This makes Thursday night and Friday the more likely time of trouble, but since we're still more than two days out the timing will likely change as the upper low and arctic air make their move our way.

=====================================

Winter Storm Watch: Thursday
3:00p.m. Monday, 25 January 2010

Dry polar air, clear skies, and diminishing winds spell a very cold night ahead with Texoma temperatures into the 20s, with teens in the normal coldest spots.

Sunshine to partly cloudy can be expected Tuesday; winds return to the south as the polar high moves eastward.

Moisture return from the Gulf spells overcast with a chance of rain (over-running) Wednesday, but the main event of the week will be on Thursday.

The models are in good agreement for an arctic air mass building in northern Canada to interact with an upper trough moving along in the jet stream. The core of the low is forecast to move near or over Texoma; placing us in a favored position for ice or snow.

This may turn out to be a major winter storm, or if the trough is weaker than forecast only an event with light precipitation amounts. Since ice is a fair possibility with this developing situation, you are urged to check for our updates as this storm takes shape.

[somethingfunny]

Texas Snowman, it's good to see you and the rest of Texoma are staying apprised of the developments for Thursday/Friday. 70 miles south of you, I ain't biting this one. Maybe it's time for a snow chasing road trip.

[wall_cloud]

Out west in the TX Panhandle it could be a mess on Thursday, aside from the potential for a foot of snow or more, we are expected sustained winds of 20-25 mph, with higher gusts. I'm thinking we could see near blizzard conditions for much of Thursday afternoon. I-40 could easily be shut down out here.

[msstateguy83]

we are on full alert here @ storm2k, in the tx winter wx thread for a MAJOR,MAJOR WINTER storm per the latest
06z morning run of the nam it STILL keeps the heavy amts there that we saw lastnight from central ok down into
sc ok into nw tx... on the 06z run has widespread amts of 2-2.50" from central ok down into nwrn tx then isolated
areas around 3 inches over central oklahoma... this is a VERY,VERY VERY impressive storm system folks i will be back
on later in the morning with a break down of all the details on what it means for you as we head into tomorrow.. stay tuned!

[iorange55]

NWS now has a chance of snow Thursday night for Dallas.

[wxman57]

Nothing's changed since yesterday. It still looks like the winter weather will extend from the TX Panhandle east across OK, staying mostly north of the Red River. I don't see any freezing rain threat in the Dallas area. Rain could possibly change over to a few snowflakes as the precip ends Friday morning in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, but moisture will be very limited (as the local NWS says in its AFD). Nothing to cause any problems.

One other thing - I see a number of people here posting talking about the weather in their respective areas. However, their profiles have no identifying locations (city/state). If you're discussing weather in your area, could you please edit your profiles to include your location? I'm usually hanging out in "Talkin' Tropics" so I don't recognize a lot of the folks here.

Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

Great point wxman57! TX is a big state and if the members would take time to edit there profile as to their genenral location, it would be helpful to the seasoned METS that sometimes rarely post on this part of the board. Thanks for the input wxman57 from a SE TX stand point in the TX Winter Weather Topic.

[iorange55]

The DFW NWS did also say

A SHIFT IN THE TRACK FURTHER NORTH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WHILE A SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH
WOULD MAKE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION MUCH MORE LIKELY.

so we'll see. I still don't trust the models I'd trust them more if they got the other winter events right in the DFW area this year, but they haven't.

[srainhoutx]

00Z ensemble Low Tracks...

[Ntxw]

Trends...I seem to have noticed a pattern...

[iorange55]

The track looks just the same, or slightly more south than the Christmas storm, so I'm def. still looking forward to surprises with this storm, and it still has more time to shift even further south, but just as it could go south it could go north.



Wait, and see. Blah.

[Ntxw]

The track looks just the same, or slightly more south than the Christmas storm, so I'm def. still looking forward to surprises with this storm, and it still has more time to shift even further south, but just as it could go south it could go north.



Wait, and see. Blah.

Well the Christmas storm was a powerful closed off low and was moving southerly before turning just about on the eastern side of DFW. Not sure the dynamics of this storm will be the same even if it goes south but the chances are pretty good if it does we should have a better idea later today. The storm rides the boundary of the cold front so it's really how far south the cold air makes.