Texas Winter 2021-2022

[DallasAg]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
340 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>145-156-157-010700-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.220203T0000Z-220204T0000Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-Johnson-Ellis-
Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Lampasas-Coryell-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman,
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur,
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano,
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper,
Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman,
Forney, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, Stephenville, Dublin,
Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson,
Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite,
Hamilton, Hico, Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro,
Lampasas, Copperas Cove, and Gatesville
340 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed winter precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to
three tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Texas.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Ice accumulations and
gusty winds on utility lines could cause power disruptions.
Cold wind chills could result in hypothermia if precautions are
not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation

Reading through the Digital AFM, looks like FWD is siding with a later front arrival (wind shift in Dallas Co by 3:00p on Wednesday), later drop to freezing (3:00a on Thursday), but not a lengthy period of just freezing rain - they roll sleet (Dallas Co) in by 6:00a Thursday.

Hoping the transition is fairly quick - they're showing total liquid equivalent of 1.21"-1.55" overnight Wednesday/Thursday.

Also interesting that they're not going quite as cold overall. IIRC they had Dallas County bottoming out at 14 for Saturday morning - now it's only 16, and highs are back in the 40s starting Saturday. Thankfully not a long duration cold event.

[Brent]

It's the 18z though I'm not really concerned about it

If the 0z models then maybe but until then

Oh boy, here we go........

It could be a bad run, but who knows.

News 9 has less Ice for me.

Less Ice = More Sleet & Snow

I think we're good. The ceiling is so high that even the low end is a good snow basically Tulsa is saying they are being conservative and they've had 7-10 on the high end today

The good trend today is definitely less ice for us. I was very concerned about that earlier

News just had 4-6 for Tulsa but again I'm sure everyone is being conservative

[CaptinCrunch]

I don't see that being the case, with the WFO in FTW starting out with .30" of ice accumulation that's usually on the conservative side to start. While I do hope for a faster transition to sleet/snow the freezing rain could be very significant across the area.

[cheezyWXguy]

From what I can tell, if you’re south of the red river these changes are pretty inconsequential. The reduction in qpf looks to be countered by a quicker transition away from freezing rain. North of the red river this could reduce the chances of your accumulations being hampered by sleet, especially if the models are underestimating the southward push of cold air. This trend doesn’t seem that bad in the grand scheme of things, but I would like to see the qpf tick back up if possible

[Brent]

Not to be an ass, but I hope Oklahoma lightens up a lot, because that means SETX is in business in this setup.

I won’t feel sorry for Okies missing out. You get plenty each Winter.

No hard feelings y’all.

Understand your point but we haven't this winter though that's the thing. My best snow has been a dusting. We average 8 inches

But I do hope everyone can get something out of this storm

[txtwister78]

Just saying...those members keep expanding south with every run. But still some things to watch no question as mentioned earlier.

[gboudx]

Thanks for clarifying/pointing out that and I completely agree, nothing is a slam dunk when it comes to Weather! Model watching is a hell of a roller coaster ride! Side note: love the opinions on here and actually wish people would chime in more with them - the banter helps with the learning process

Absolutely! I couldn't agree more with ya. Healthy dialogue and debate is a good thing.

I hope you Metroplexers get a great winter event later this week without too much damage. Maybe snow will end up being predominant type of precip that falls! Y'all are long overdue.

Overdue? We did quite well in last year's Feb events. We had at least 10" of snow. But if you mean overdue for an ice storm, then yeah I guess so.

[Snowman67]

Just saying...those members keep expanding south with every run. But still some things to watch no question as mentioned earlier.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643652000/1643911200-EYzsnUPdMj4.png

I can just picture the heat miser standing all bundled up pushing his hardest to keep the wall up just North of the Houston area.

[EnnisTx]

Not to be an ass, but I hope Oklahoma lightens up a lot, because that means SETX is in business in this setup.

I won’t feel sorry for Okies missing out. You get plenty each Winter.

No hard feelings y’all.

Understand your point but we haven't this winter though that's the thing. My best snow has been a dusting. We average 8 inches

But I do hope everyone can get something out of this storm

Brent, didn't you just move up there not long ago? You use to average pretty much nothing here.

[Texas Snow]

Thanks for clarifying/pointing out that and I completely agree, nothing is a slam dunk when it comes to Weather! Model watching is a hell of a roller coaster ride! Side note: love the opinions on here and actually wish people would chime in more with them - the banter helps with the learning process

Absolutely! I couldn't agree more with ya. Healthy dialogue and debate is a good thing.

I hope you Metroplexers get a great winter event later this week without too much damage. Maybe snow will end up being predominant type of precip that falls! Y'all are long overdue.

Overdue? We did quite well in last year's Feb events. We had at least 10" of snow. But if you mean overdue for an ice storm, then yeah I guess so.

I certainly didn't get close to 10" last year but since it was s cold I didn't mind because everything including the roads where a gorgeous white for a week. That almost never happens here.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS has less QPF (I hope that's not the trend for me) & the cold is further south again.

EDIT: There's more & less, I don't know what to say.

There's less Sleet & Snow, I hope that's not the start of a trend.

It's the 18z though I'm not really concerned about it

If the 0z models then maybe but until then

Brent you know this, but can't tell y'all the past half decade including last year's Feb blast that DFW got robbed of moisture because convection ballooned to the south. We had to claw tooth and nail for every ounce of qpf and watch it just pour snow to the south and east. Not saying it happens here but I feel the anxiety.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Just saying...those members keep expanding south with every run. But still some things to watch no question as mentioned earlier.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643652000/1643911200-EYzsnUPdMj4.png

In the tune and lyrics of Sam Cooke “BRING IT ON HOME TO ME, YEAAAH, YEAAAH, YEAAAH”

[Ralph's Weather]

So far SHV is pretty conservative. Saying generally less than .1" of ice west of Tyler and none east.

[Cerlin]

Watch is out for DFW and some parts south!

Is there not going to be any frozen precip in Bell County? Lampasas County is under WSW yet Bell doesn't have any watch or warning. A sleet pellet at most?

They're probably waiting to pull the trigger until they have evidence of more winter weather there. I don't see how Bell county doesn't get at least a little bit.

[Ntxw]

Thursday morning on GFS DFW is very close to eroding away at that warm nose, it's not that warm nor thick. If frozen pellets are numerous may cool it all down quicker. At least we'll get several hours of a good snow if that happens during the day time.

[Cerlin]

Not to be an ass, but I hope Oklahoma lightens up a lot, because that means SETX is in business in this setup.

I won’t feel sorry for Okies missing out. You get plenty each Winter.

No hard feelings y’all.

No hard feelings but I'm going to respectfully disagree!

Especially because this is only my second winter up here. I had to live through the 2016-2020 snow drought in DFW with the rest of the metroplexers. I haven't had my plenty yet!

[Ntxw]

So far SHV is pretty conservative. Saying generally less than .1" of ice west of Tyler and none east.

East Texas has the most qpf. Temps critical in those parts.

[Brent]

There's less Sleet & Snow, I hope that's not the start of a trend.

It's the 18z though I'm not really concerned about it

If the 0z models then maybe but until then

Brent you know this, but can't tell y'all the past half decade including last year's Feb blast that DFW got robbed of moisture because convection ballooned to the south. We had to claw tooth and nail for every ounce of qpf and watch it just pour snow to the south and east. Not saying it happens here but I feel the anxiety.

Ha don't get me started on December 2017 and other times during the 5 year snowless streak when places down south got snow

Yeah I don't forget

[Ntxw]

It's the 18z though I'm not really concerned about it

If the 0z models then maybe but until then

Brent you know this, but can't tell y'all the past half decade including last year's Feb blast that DFW got robbed of moisture because convection ballooned to the south. We had to claw tooth and nail for every ounce of qpf and watch it just pour snow to the south and east. Not saying it happens here but I feel the anxiety.

Ha don't get me started on December 2017 and other times during the 5 year snowless streak when places down south got snow

Yeah I don't forget

You do have 850 boundary up there and rich moisture in NE Oklahoma. It's so much easier to do anafrontal snow events up north. Western Oklahoma probably at higher risk of dry slot. When the energy transfers to the surface along the MS River Valley.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

ntwx was right. FWD going in early.

My wife's first words to me this morning were "when do I find out that I won't have school on Thursday." My answer was "probably not until Wednesday, but they'll post a Winter Storm Watch before we go to bed tonight."