Pacific Northwest Weather

TT-SEA · #4281 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 3:13 pm

How are you determining analog years???

andrewr · #4282 Postby **andrewr** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 3:30 pm

I just had a very nice thundershower move over me. Lots of hail, wind, rain, and thunder (but didn't see the lightning). Hope others get to enjoy it.

EDIT: It dropped my temperature down to 39F.

andycottle · #4283 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 3:47 pm

Viewing the latest models early this afternoon, our active weather continues right through most of the week with maybe a break on Friday or Saturday...but a isloated shower wont be ruled out. Temps will also continue to be very cool. A weak trough looks to settel over our region For sunday into monday.

HOWEVER...main weather concern will be tomorrow, but more so on Wednesday as the airmass will become QUITE unstable. And by that I mean...CAPE values will be well into the 300 J/KG range...and maybe much higher...like near 400. Lifted indicies also pretty negative and at -4. 850MB heights are around 1440M with temp near -6C with winds at 20kts from the South and SW. 500MB vorticity heights are near 534DM and winds out of the SW at 20kts and temp of -32C. 700MB heights are around 2910M...so definally chilly up at level as well. And with the airmass being really unstable, T-Storm development during the afternoon hours should have no trouble what so ever at firing off some nice convective cells, as Jet streams winds for Wednesday afternoon into early-late evening will light. So with at said...here is what we may very well possibly see during this time.

STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
PEA SIZED HAIL OR LARGER
HEAVY RAIN IN SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
POSSIBLY ISOLATED FUNNEL CLOUDS

-- Andy

W13 · #4284 Postby **W13** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 3:50 pm

Andrew,

I think we got part of that a little while ago. We had very heavy rain for a few minutes and I even heard some thunder in the distance while at the store. Our temperature dropped down to 38 F. It is 42 F currently.

W13 · #4285 Postby **W13** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 4:14 pm

Yet another moderate to heavy cell is heading our way.

W13 · #4286 Postby **W13** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 4:36 pm

40 F and continuing to drop even though it isn't even raining yet. Hmm... :wink:

R-Dub · #4287 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 4:45 pm

Couldn't post last night, power went out for some reason at 8:00PM, and didn't come back on until 2:00AM this morning.

A VERY WET morning!! Had 1" of rainfall from last evening to this morning around 10:00AM when the rain stopped. We have had 3.65" from the first of April to today!! That is very wet for my area that is often times protected from the Olympics.

Now its partly sunny and windy with a temp in the low 50's, will have some pics in a bit!!

R-Dub · #4288 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 4:53 pm

WOW looking at the radar, there is a VERY intense cell just to the north of me, and it looks quite dark!

W13 · #4289 Postby **W13** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 5:46 pm

Latest NWS Forecast Discussion:

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE AREA. A FEW REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL...AND WIND IS
SQUIRRELLY IN VICINITY OF SHOWERS. THE THUNDER SHOULD END BY
SUNSET...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST LONGER.

TROUGH TAKES QUITE AWHILE TO GET THROUGH THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL
BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THREE MORE DAYS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY.
NEXT SYSTEM IS BARRELING IN AND GFS HAS RAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE
DAY ON FRI. THIS SEEMS FAST...CONSIDERING THE TROUGH IN FRONT OF IT
IS MOVING SO SLOWLY...BUT PUT A CHANCE IN FOR FRI.

WENT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN ON SAT AND SHOWERS ON
SUN. BY MONDAY THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LONG GONE. BURKE

andycottle · #4290 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 6:08 pm

No thunder here today as of yet. Just some breezy winds at times and cloudy to partly cloudy intervals. High so far today is 54. My low was 43.
-- Andy

snow_wizzard · #4291 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 6:37 pm

It is so bloody cold today! After a scorching high of 48, we are now sitting at 43...a normal late afternoon temp for January! :eek:

The real surprise is that we have an east wind, and it is that cool with no precip falling. There is little doubt that if a few things were to come together just right, somebody in the lowlands could see some wet snow before this is over. I have to say, this is a little colder than even I was envisioning. :eek:

Other than that, Andy said it all in his post. We could be seeing genuine central US type weather.

TT...I find the analogs in the 6 - 10 day and 8 - 14 day outlook tools. Over the past couple of months 1951, 1953, 1955, 1984, 1988, and 1999 have been some of the big hitters. I still call 1999 - 00 the winter that should have been. That one was just plain bad luck! All of the others had very cold and snowy weather.

EDIT: We did have some thunder here today.

andycottle · #4292 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 7:17 pm

No lightning yet as of last hour, but looking at the Seattle Radar loop, a nice heavy shower has firered up just a little SW of Port Angeles. A pretty hefty shower it looks to be! -- Andy

andycottle · #4293 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 7:53 pm

http://www.katu.com/cameras/gorge.asp

Look`n pretty dark and stormy at the gorge! -- Andy

R-Dub · #4294 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 8:27 pm

Here is a pic of the clouds this PM

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

This pic shows just how much rain we had this morning, it was still running down the hill this afternoon. I haven't seen that amount of water flow at that part of the course in about 2 years!!!

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

Currently its 44 degrees and Mostly Cloudy.

andycottle · #4295 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 8:31 pm

Hey Randy...lol..

...you know you posted the same pic twice? Must of been in a hurry..

:) -- Andy

R-Dub · #4296 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 8:51 pm

should be fixed now Andy! And yeah I was in a hurry :lol:

andycottle · #4297 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 8:59 pm

As avertised in the past few days, our showery and cool weather lasts well into this weekend, with weaker trough sitting over our area for late sunday into monday. This means the high likey hood of showers exists and so does the T-Storm threat...with the best T-Storm activity being Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. ECMWF, Canadain, and GEM models all agree on the weak trough for late in the weekend. A ridge of high pressure may build up for late monday(18th) through about the following Monday(25th). -- Andy

andycottle · #4298 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 9:00 pm

Hey...now I see the clouds!:) Good pic, Randy.

W13 · #4299 Postby **W13** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 9:03 pm

Great pics Randy! 8-)

snow_wizzard · #4300 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Apr 11, 2005 9:43 pm

I hope to tell you guys that we are close to seeing some lowland snow. Late afternoon temps in many areas are in the upper 30s to low 40s and it's only going to get colder tonight! Furthermore, an approaching weak low will turn the low level winds weakly offshore. That in combination with 850mb temps of -5 would be a slam dunk for snow in the winter. As it is, I consider it likely some places will see snow down to 1000 or slightly lower. A similar sceanrio tomorrow night looks even slightly colder yet. This could be close call for some of the hills to see a flake or two. There is also a chance of strong convective activity giving some lumpy rain during the daytime hours. This is some really cold stuff for April. The expected duration of this cool period is what really excites me! I would love to see about 2 or 3 weeks of this. After that anything would be fine!

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