Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

ntwx was right. FWD going in early.

My wife's first words to me this morning were "when do I find out that I won't have school on Thursday." My answer was "probably not until Wednesday, but they'll post a Winter Storm Watch before we go to bed tonight."

For a typical event I would agree, futile to pull the trigger more than 36 hours no less 24 hours. But this is an unusual case where you see and hear the train coming from a mile away. Mantra is 'how many more maps do you need?' Even on the low end is fairly significant impacts to travel.

[bevolon]

Sorry about that NTxw. I accidentally hit the report this post button instead of a reply. My question was in your opinion do you think that the DFW area will get dry slotted on this event? Trying to prepare for staff to work from home. Again, I apologize for the mix-up on my part. Thanks in advance!

[Ntxw]

Sorry about that NTxw. I accidentally hit the report this post button instead of a reply. My question was in your opinion do you think that the DFW area will get dry slotted on this event? Trying to prepare for staff to work from home. Again, I apologize for the mix-up on my part. Thanks in advance!

Okay thought I had broke a rule . No problem!

Likely not, our issue is not qpf but temp profile. The only way we dry slot is if the northern branch takes over and it moves out quicker which that scenario is dwindling.

[bevolon]

Sorry about that NTxw. I accidentally hit the report this post button instead of a reply. My question was in your opinion do you think that the DFW area will get dry slotted on this event? Trying to prepare for staff to work from home. Again, I apologize for the mix-up on my part. Thanks in advance!

Okay thought I had broke a rule . No problem!

Likely not, our issue is not qpf but temp profile. The only way we dry slot is if the northern branch takes over and it moves out quicker which that scenario is dwindling.

Thank you!

[aggiecutter]

Just saying...those members keep expanding south with every run. But still some things to watch no question as mentioned earlier.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643652000/1643911200-EYzsnUPdMj4.png

More than half of the Ensemble Members have a significant icing event for NE Texas and SW Arkansas. This area seems to be a magnet for Winter Storms, especially considering how far south we are.

[rwfromkansas]

Seeing posts about last year made me look at my posts and info from the FW NWS about February 2021. I saw absolutely no ice on the 11th since it was just some patchy freezing drizzle. Then, snow the 14th and a couple days later got another inch, so basically 5-6 inches total while places north got more, but there was some disappointment due to not getting as much as forecast for the second system. There were model changes as usual.

I think for this one, I will be pretty happy so long as it's enough to shut school down. I could really use some time to dedicated editing yearbook spreads... But, no major ice storms.

Hopefully, the more conservative ice accumulation forecasts from FWD so far will be right, but not the lower snow/sleet amounts.

[CaptinCrunch]

ntwx was right. FWD going in early.

My wife's first words to me this morning were "when do I find out that I won't have school on Thursday." My answer was "probably not until Wednesday, but they'll post a Winter Storm Watch before we go to bed tonight."

For a typical event I would agree, futile to pull the trigger more than 36 hours no less 24 hours. But this is an unusual case where you see and hear the train coming from a mile away. Mantra is 'how many more maps do you need?' Even on the low end is fairly significant impacts to travel.

NTXW is correct, the models have been super consistent with this system, now the bigger question really is the amount and type of precip we get and how fast the dense artic air pushes through the DFW area. All these thing we will have a much clearer picture by Wednesday morning, but I wont be surprised to see freezing rain in the DFW area by rush hour Wednesday, which will be a nightmare for those on the roads.

As for Thursday, I think the transition to snow happens early and DFW may see a wide area of 2"-4" amounts. This will help keep temps on Friday from from getting above 32 and then another hard freeze Saturday morning and we finally get above freezing by mid day.

[Iceresistance]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

What the Models are consistent on:

• Storm System with Winter Precipitation
• Major Travel Impacts are very possible from this storm
• Bitterly cold Temperatures after the storm

Not consistent on:

• How much QPF
• How fast & far the cold air will dive into Texas
• Exact Storm Location
• Warm Nose

That might be the reason why the WFOs are being very conservative with this system.

[funster]

Thumbs down for "icing in trees & powerlines causing some power outages."

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1488295410120724484

[cheezyWXguy]

Thumbs down for "icing in trees & powerlines causing some power outages."

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1488295410120724484

I know they’re starting conservative, but I can’t figure out how 0.3” ice and 1” of sleet (around 0.3” liquid equivalent) adds up to the 1-2” qpf falling in sub freezing temps shown on almost every model. Unless the euro wins out, I would expect some pretty big changes here

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

My wife's first words to me this morning were "when do I find out that I won't have school on Thursday." My answer was "probably not until Wednesday, but they'll post a Winter Storm Watch before we go to bed tonight."

For a typical event I would agree, futile to pull the trigger more than 36 hours no less 24 hours. But this is an unusual case where you see and hear the train coming from a mile away. Mantra is 'how many more maps do you need?' Even on the low end is fairly significant impacts to travel.

NTXW is correct, the models have been super consistent with this system, now the bigger question really is the amount and type of precip we get and how fast the dense artic air pushes through the DFW area. All these thing we will have a much clearer picture by Wednesday morning, but I wont be surprised to see freezing rain in the DFW area by rush hour Wednesday, which will be a nightmare for those on the roads.

As for Thursday, I think the transition to snow happens early and DFW may see a wide area of 2"-4" amounts. This will help keep temps on Friday from from getting above 32 and then another hard freeze Saturday morning and we finally get above freezing by mid day.

My mom requires oxygen 24x7. Last year they lost power for 3 days but were able to stay with us. Really worried about ICE and not being able to get them to electricity if it happens again.

[Brent]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

What the Models are consistent on:

• Storm System with Winter Precipitation
• Major Travel Impacts are very possible from this storm
• Bitterly cold Temperatures after the storm

Not consistent on:

• How much QPF
• How fast & far the cold air will dive into Texas
• Exact Storm Location
• Warm Nose

That might be the reason why the WFOs are being very conservative with this system.

Radio just said in excess of 5 inches here

[Texas Snow]

Thumbs down for "icing in trees & powerlines causing some power outages."

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1488295410120724484

I know they’re starting conservative, but I can’t figure out how 0.3” ice and 1” of sleet (around 0.3” liquid equivalent) adds up to the 1-2” qpf falling in sub freezing temps shown on almost every model. Unless the euro wins out, I would expect some pretty big changes here

Just looking at the NBM since they lean on it a bit, at my house .8 falls before freezing surface temps, then .4 liquid equivalent the six hours following freezing temps, and another .3 the next 6 hours.

So overall the NBM is 1.5 total liquid with only .7 liquid falling after surface freezing. Even if that was all sleet it would only be 1.75” of sleet.

So they may just be using the NBM this far out, just my guess.

[Ntxw]

UA analysis at 850mb. You can see the leading edge of the continental air mass change moving into Montana. Height rises and stacked gradient as well as the wind shift with building in HP. Beginnings of our cold front.

[starsfan65]

UA analysis at 850mb. You can see the leading edge of the continental air mass change moving into Montana. Height rises and stacked gradient as well as the wind shift with building in HP. Beginnings of our cold front.

https://i.imgur.com/OJSpsZA.png

What is the time frame for the front to come to DFW?

[Ntxw]

UA analysis at 850mb. You can see the leading edge of the continental air mass change moving into Montana. Height rises and stacked gradient as well as the wind shift with building in HP. Beginnings of our cold front.

https://i.imgur.com/OJSpsZA.png

What is the time frame for the front to come to DFW?

Wednesday morning. The freezing air lags a little could be as soon as 6pm-9pm that evening or as late as 3am the next morning.

[Iceresistance]

KWTV-News 9 Forecast at 6:20 PM
Tecumseh, OK

3-6 inches of Snow
2-3 inches of Sleet
Up to 1/4 inch of Ice

Tulsa, OK (For Brent)
4-8 inches of snow
Up to 1 inch of Sleet (Depends on the location)
Glaze of Ice

[Cpv17]

I’m actually interested in what the CPC is seeing for next week. They’ve placed us in the slight risk for cold and have above normal precipitation for the southern half of the state during that timeframe.

[Cpv17]

Long ways out but the GEFS is showing a crazy strong blocking EPO. Looks good for mid month.

[wxman57]

Just saying...those members keep expanding south with every run. But still some things to watch no question as mentioned earlier.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643652000/1643911200-EYzsnUPdMj4.png

I can just picture the heat miser standing all bundled up pushing his hardest to keep the wall up just North of the Houston area.

No need, my wall is holding. Latest two GFS runs keep Houston warmer than last week. No freeze. I let enough air come down to provide a nice ice storm for my D-FW friends.