Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Weatherdude20]

i may NOT be an official meteorologist yet iam going to school BUT whats your reasoning to issue A WINTER STORM WATCH then for ONE INCH OF SNOW?!? are you thinking that criteria for ice??? becouse honestly i think we should all know this THAT WOULD BE A WINTER WX ADVISORY... FOR A INCH OR SO OF SNOW?? COME ON.....

Hahaha, glad to know were on the same page, but, Wxman57 lives in Houston so obviously snow is his expertise.

[wxman57]

i may NOT be an official meteorologist yet iam going to school BUT whats your reasoning to issue A WINTER STORM WATCH then for ONE INCH OF SNOW?!? are you thinking that criteria for ice??? becouse honestly i think we should all know this THAT WOULD BE A WINTER WX ADVISORY... FOR A INCH OR SO OF SNOW?? COME ON.....

A watch is for the possibility of winter weather, perhaps heavier amounts than are forecast. Of course it's possible that amounts could be heavier and could cause problems there, that's the reason a watch is warranted.

By the way, I have been to Wichita Falls once. In 1989, I rode in the Hotter 'n' Hell Hundred. Now that's my kind of weather - August heat!

[srainhoutx]

Come on folks. Give wxman57 a break. He's been forecasting in TX for 30+ years and has more degrees than you can shake a stick at. Everyone has the right to express opinions, but this is bordering on a long standing S2k policy about openly bashing our Pros that freely give of their time and effort to post and help educate as well as offer information that we would not otherwise have. Just some food for thought.

[msstateguy83]

just a respectful debate but yes totally agree with srainhoutx the man knows his wx
anyone with that much exp in meteorology should be very much respected =) as has
been said before thanks so much for coming in here, giving your opinion i by no mean am
saying you dont know what your talking about!

[msstateguy83]

72 HRS OUT ON THE 12Z NAM.....

[Weatherdude20]

Ok, sorry. It was getting out of hand.

Also, Wxman57 why do you keep saying Dallas, when it comes to winter weather Fort Worth and Dallas are a huge difference. I can't even explain how many times Fort Worth has gotten massive snow, and Dallas has missed out completely. It's even happened a few times this winter.

Timing, location, and factors all play a role in this, being a county west makes a huge difference in this storm.

[Weatherdude20]

just a respectful debate but yes totally agree with srainhoutx the man knows his wx
anyone with that much exp in meteorology should be very much respected =) as has
been said before thanks so much for coming in here, giving your opinion i by no mean am
saying you dont know what your talking about!

Yes I agree, I respect, your experience. Thanks for contributing to this thread, and thanks to Storm2k for providing us this oppurtunity, to inform the people, and debate.

[msstateguy83]

new 12z data coming in & per it i would have to say along and nw of a sherman-denison to denton to ft worth line i would expect major problems temps SHOULD be at or below frzing at that time frame, question still remains how the upper level temps are at that point as to if its frz rain or snow but i would expect fws to issue some type of winter wx watch/advisorys later in the day.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[msstateguy83]

WOW 84 HRS OUT ON THE NAM

[Weatherdude20]

Can't agree with you more.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[srainhoutx]

From the limited data I am seeing there could be p-type issues via the NAM. Even in OKC we could be talking about freezing rain/sleet IMHO before a change over.

[iorange55]

That cold air needs to push down further south at a little faster of a pace. I'm going to spend the next two days showering mother nature with gifts.

[msstateguy83]

i cannot stress enough people this situation now that we are getting closer, closer
and things are NOT changing for the better this could turn into a MAJOR,MAJOR,MAJOR
ICE & OR SNOW STORM EFFECTING TRAVEL FOR DAYS, PEOPLE BEING WITHOUT POWER FOR DAYS OR MORE... we could seriously i feel be looking at one of the most heavy snowfalls this region has ever seen and that might be an under statement! it all hinges
on if the upper level temps cool down quick enough for it to go quickly from a frz rain to snow event... all i gotta say is if you live ANYWHERE IN OKLAHOMA OR N TX STAY TUNED VERY,VERY CLOSELY!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Portastorm]

Memo to all Texas winter wx thread posters ... take it from the voice of experience when I say that you should listen and learn from Wxman57. You may not like or even agree with what he says, but I cannot tell you the number of times I have seen him be dead-on accurate about developing weather situations be them winter or summer or whatever. As srainhoutx says, he's a long-time, seasoned pro. The man knows of which he writes/speaks.

As you saw from my interaction with him yesterday, there's nothing wrong with asking questions on WHY he thinks something or the WHY NOT questions ... but the moment you start to question his knowledge base or his forecasting prowess, I believe you've gone over the line.

This board used to have more pro mets on it but some of them quit being active. Why? Because they had to deal with the uneducated and less-educated masses questioning their abilities and criticizing their forecasting. So they figured "why should I bother with this?" These guys (and gals) can teach us a lot. There's nothing wrong with debating respectfully but lets not get carried away here or else we risk losing a very classy and patient S2K member like Wxman57.

Now back to the weather ...

[vbhoutex]

Memo to all Texas winter wx thread posters ... take it from the voice of experience when I say that you should listen and learn from Wxman57. You may not like or even agree with what he says, but I cannot tell you the number of times I have seen him be dead-on accurate about developing weather situations be them winter or summer or whatever. As srainhoutx says, he's a long-time, seasoned pro. The man knows of which he writes/speaks.

As you saw from my interaction with him yesterday, there's nothing wrong with asking questions on WHY he thinks something or the WHY NOT questions ... but the moment you start to question his knowledge base or his forecasting prowess, I believe you've gone over the line.

This board used to have more pro mets on it but some of them quit being active. Why? Because they had to deal with the uneducated and less-educated masses questioning their abilities and criticizing their forecasting. So they figured "why should I bother with this?" These guys (and gals) can teach us a lot. There's nothing wrong with debating respectfully but lets not get carried away here or else we risk losing a very classy and patient S2K member like Wxman57.

Now back to the weather ...

As an admin on this site I will back both Srain and Portastorm up 1000%!! Some of the comments above were over the line and by our rules warrant an official warning. So this is it right here for everyone to see. I am not naming names nor do I want excuses or further comments concerning this.
We are not saying our pro-mets are always right, because they aren't always right. But I can tell you from experience that they can out-forecast any amateur on this site on a day to day basis. Give them the respect they deserve, just as you desire that respect for your forecasts you are producing. If it isn't obvious I will state it again. S2K fully encourages RESPECTFUL debate on just about anything, but especially the weather since that is our primary focus.
Now let's get back to discussing this obviously powerful and dangerous Winter storm that is heading into the Southern Plains.

[srainhoutx]

Just had a chance to look at some more 'detailed' data. The dynamics via the NAM suggests a convective side during the time when freezing rain/sleet is falling. This will no doubt be a big issues for some, but where and how much reamains to be seen. Also, it is note worthy that there may be some severe weather as well with this system. We also need to keep that in mind. We often see these type late January/early February storms with a pattern change. Regarding the longer range beyond this storm, there are certainly signals that this will not be the last wintry type system we will see in TX or the Southern Plains.

[txagwxman]

To heck with the winter weather...anyone noticing the potential severe weather outbreak Thur evening over SE TX? Backed SE flow, strong vertical wind shear...could be some nasty storms Thu evening.

[srainhoutx]

To heck with the winter weather...anyone noticing the potential severe weather outbreak Thur evening over SE TX? Backed SE flow, strong vertical wind shear...could be some nasty storms Thu evening.

I justed posted about the severe issues here and on the "local Forum". This may the far greater threat and the real story for Central and SE TX than any wintry weather chances.

[wxman57]

Wxman57 why do you keep saying Dallas, when it comes to winter weather Fort Worth and Dallas are a huge difference. I can't even explain how many times Fort Worth has gotten massive snow, and Dallas has missed out completely. It's even happened a few times this winter.

Timing, location, and factors all play a role in this, being a county west makes a huge difference in this storm.

Sorry, when I say "Dallas" I'm really talking about the whole Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex area. I'm aware of the differences, as I actually used to live at my father's house in east Fort Worth during the summers when I was going to school at A&M (1977-1980). Regardless, I don't think Ft. Worth or Dallas will have any significant problems with this event. Wichita Falls - that's another story. They're very close to the edge of the heavier precip. A slight change in the cold air position and storm track could mean heavier snow there. It would take more than a slight change for the D-FW area to be significantly impacted.

[wxman57]

Just had a chance to look at some more 'detailed' data. The dynamics via the NAM suggests a convective side during the time when freezing rain/sleet is falling. This will no doubt be a big issues for some, but where and how much remains to be seen. Also, it is note worthy that there may be some severe weather as well with this system. We also need to keep that in mind. We often see these type late January/early February storms with a pattern change. Regarding the longer range beyond this storm, there are certainly signals that this will not be the last wintry type system we will see in TX or the Southern Plains.

srain - I'm not sure what area you're referring to when you mention NAM and freezing rain/sleet.