Texas Winter 2013-2014

[gboudx]

Unreal spread among the GFS and NAM....for example, the GFS for Austin is showing .10 inch of precip while temps are below freezing while the NAM has .57 inch

Yeah, I'm quite serious about this when I say that I haven't seen such a complex winter weather set up in years. Granted, forecasting winter weather in Texas is never easy ... but usually we have a little simpler set up with an upper level low inbound from the west or a coastal trough or both. Often that upper level energy will shear out as it crosses the state and ends up helping form a surface low off the Texas coast. Sometimes the ULLs hold their identity and create havoc underneath them. But THIS set up is not certain for either the upper level energy or the coastal trough. Some model runs show it, some are not showing it clearly.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we here in Austin got freezing drizzle and sleet ... or an inch of snow ... or something in between. Heck, we could even end up with just a very small amount of freezing precip with little to no impact.

For weather fans, you gotta love it. It's a chance for all of us to learn some things as this one unfolds.

Sounds like an interesting PWC press conference coming up. What time is that again? What channel?

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: Big ticket threat Texas I-10 corridor all the way to Houston. All we need is a bit of ice and snow, and its chaos in those areas

[Rgv20]

Unreal spread among the GFS and NAM....for example, the GFS for Austin is showing .10 inch of precip while temps are below freezing while the NAM has .57 inch

0zECMWF is showwing under 0.10 of precipitation while the ECMWF Ensemble Means are around 0.14-0.16. NAM is standing firm for what it believes! haha

[downsouthman1]

I feel like the WV loops show the ULL getting sheared out. Am I mistaken?

[Portastorm]

I feel like the WV loops show the ULL getting sheared out. Am I mistaken?

I think you are mistaken. I don't see any signs of that at all. Some of the upper-level energy is just now starting to rotate onto land from the Pacific. Folks looking at the water vapor off the west coast should also note the active looking southern jet. Hmmm...

[downsouthman1]

I feel like the WV loops show the ULL getting sheared out. Am I mistaken?

I think you are mistaken. I don't see any signs of that at all. Some of the upper-level energy is just now starting to rotate onto land from the Pacific. Folks looking at the water vapor off the west coast should also note the active looking southern jet. Hmmm...

I did notice that growing plume about to hit Baja. The ULL I was referring to was off the west coast of Cali. I'm struggling to see any kind of new ULL or is there none?

Edit: I said I would show no interest in this storm but I'm an addict & this is my story.

[Portastorm]

I feel like the WV loops show the ULL getting sheared out. Am I mistaken?

I think you are mistaken. I don't see any signs of that at all. Some of the upper-level energy is just now starting to rotate onto land from the Pacific. Folks looking at the water vapor off the west coast should also note the active looking southern jet. Hmmm...

I did notice that growing plume about to hit Baja. The ULL I was referring to was off the west coast of Cali. I'm struggling to see any kind of new ULL or is there none?

Edit: I said I would show no interest in this storm but I'm an addict & this is my story.

The upper level energy is now rotating southward from a position in SW Canada/NW USA.

[South Texas Storms]

Unreal spread among the GFS and NAM....for example, the GFS for Austin is showing .10 inch of precip while temps are below freezing while the NAM has .57 inch

FWIW, the high-resoultion NAM supports the lower-resolution NAM. Also, the TTU WRF model (which I think is a pretty accurate model), is showing QPF totals over .25 inch across much of central and southeast Texas. The SREF has continued to trend wetter as well.

[downsouthman1]

The upper level energy is now rotating southward from a position in SW Canada/NW USA.

Now I see it! Thanks Porta. I feel like such a newb that I was struggling to find the ULL. Didn't even look there. Probably because I'm just now getting interested in this storm.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

What are you all's thoughts on this? Looks like it's showing a coastal low developing, which would give a large portion of Texas so wintry precipitation.
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... h=1&hh=036

[Tireman4]

Unreal spread among the GFS and NAM....for example, the GFS for Austin is showing .10 inch of precip while temps are below freezing while the NAM has .57 inch

Yeah, I'm quite serious about this when I say that I haven't seen such a complex winter weather set up in years. Granted, forecasting winter weather in Texas is never easy ... but usually we have a little simpler set up with an upper level low inbound from the west or a coastal trough or both. Often that upper level energy will shear out as it crosses the state and ends up helping form a surface low off the Texas coast. Sometimes the ULLs hold their identity and create havoc underneath them. But THIS set up is not certain for either the upper level energy or the coastal trough. Some model runs show it, some are not showing it clearly.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we here in Austin got freezing drizzle and sleet ... or an inch of snow ... or something in between. Heck, we could even end up with just a very small amount of freezing precip with little to no impact.

For weather fans, you gotta love it. It's a chance for all of us to learn some things as this one unfolds.

Sounds like an interesting PWC press conference coming up. What time is that again? What channel?

4 pm today. The S2K Channel!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What are you all's thoughts on this? Looks like it's showing a coastal low developing, which would give a large portion of Texas so wintry precipitation.
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... h=1&hh=036

For one, the HP is 1049 in OK which is way stronger than other models

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplu ... YP=roadmap

The ensembles for the SREF are def wetter. This is for HOU

[ndale]

EWX must be taking their time to sort out this mess too, they are not rushing to update their forecast discussion.

[downsouthman1]

EWX must be taking their time to sort out this mess too, they are not rushing to update their forecast discussion.

They normally only do AFDs twice a day & the new one probably won't come out till after 2PM today.

Edit: Unless you're talking about the mid-morning updates.

[stormlover2013]

WOWW the CMC goes crazy!!!!
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

What are you all's thoughts on this? Looks like it's showing a coastal low developing, which would give a large portion of Texas so wintry precipitation.
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... h=1&hh=036

For one, the HP is 1049 in OK which is way stronger than other models

My extremely novice experience tells me that it is nearly impossible for NoTx to experience any precip under that type of high pressure influence.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Has the period of precip been extended too? Looks like instead of 12 hours of moisture we may get close to 24? This are rough numbers that im using as an example. Im about to go out on a limb here though on what we will see.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

WOWW the CMC goes crazy!!!!
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

Talking about next week? That is insane

[Portastorm]

EWX must be taking their time to sort out this mess too, they are not rushing to update their forecast discussion.

They normally only do AFDs twice a day & the new one probably won't come out till after 2PM today.

Actually it'll be more like 3:15, 3:30 p.m. Don't be surprised if most of the NWSFOs in Texas issue their afternoon AFDs today late. Very difficult forecast.