Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Cpv17]

Just saying...those members keep expanding south with every run. But still some things to watch no question as mentioned earlier.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643652000/1643911200-EYzsnUPdMj4.png

I can just picture the heat miser standing all bundled up pushing his hardest to keep the wall up just North of the Houston area.

No need, my wall is holding. Latest two GFS runs keep Houston warmer than last week. No freeze. I let enough air come down to provide a nice ice storm for my D-FW friends.

I seriously hope you really don’t believe Houston isn’t going to get down to freezing.

[txtwister78]

Definitely something to watch Saturday across SCTX.

[Iceresistance]

Definitely something to watch Saturday across SCTX.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1643652000/1644170400-Hs8I7PgtxdQ.png

Also, the 18z Euro has more snowfall compared to the other models on the same run, the Euro really wants to stick out like a sore tumb!

[Ntxw]

For a few hours from late morning to afternoon.

[Brent]

Definitely something to watch Saturday across SCTX.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1643652000/1644170400-Hs8I7PgtxdQ.png

Hey maybe y'all get yours Saturday even if Thursday fails

[Ntxw]

0z runs about to start with NAM. While not critical runs, a lot of the pieces have come into the national scope including some of the leading cold air. Will be start of runs to take a little more weight on.

[txtwister78]

Definitely something to watch Saturday across SCTX.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1643652000/1644170400-Hs8I7PgtxdQ.png

Hey maybe y'all get yours Saturday even if Thursday fails

Yeah definitely not expecting snow here Thursday so we can rule that out now (maybe some ice). Saturday looks a little more interesting "if" ULL crosses into SCTX but right now Euro only model showing that.

[Quixotic]

Alright. Now the real fun begins. The emotional highs and lows. The freak outs when you get 6” and the guy down the road got 7.

[Ntxw]

Alright. Now the real fun begins. The emotional highs and lows. The freak outs when you get 6” and the guy down the road got 7.

I want to see posts of sleet drifts like in 2013.

[Brent]

Alright. Now the real fun begins. The emotional highs and lows. The freak outs when you get 6” and the guy down the road got 7.

Lol you know a few days ago I just wanted to get to around 5 inches which would be my biggest snowstorm still since I was a kid but there's so much potential up here with this... I mean double digits are possible if we changeover quick. I mean I'd be ok with 5-6 but the ceiling is so much higher. I haven't seen a storm this loaded since I was 4 years old in Alabama(the blIzzard of 93) and I barely even remember that

[Quixotic]

Alright. Now the real fun begins. The emotional highs and lows. The freak outs when you get 6” and the guy down the road got 7.

I want to see posts of sleet drifts like in 2013.

I grilled the next day. Had to climb a three foot pile of sleet to do it. It was at junction where three parts of the house meet.

Sleet is awesome as it sticks around and for some reason, seems to build some low cloud decks/fog to keep it from melting.

[Ntxw]

0z NAM is faster with the cold. No surprise there..

[bubba hotep]

Alright. Now the real fun begins. The emotional highs and lows. The freak outs when you get 6” and the guy down the road got 7.

Today was a good day to step away, storm is coming but the hi-res output was still at the fringes of usability. Tomorrow is when the fun starts lol

[Ntxw]

Northwestern half of the metroplex is seeing freezing rain on NAM ~9pm Weds. Snow in the Falls and Norman.

[bubba hotep]

Alright. Now the real fun begins. The emotional highs and lows. The freak outs when you get 6” and the guy down the road got 7.

Lol you know a few days ago I just wanted to get to around 5 inches which would be my biggest snowstorm still since I was a kid but there's so much potential up here with this... I mean double digits are possible if we changeover quick. I mean I'd be ok with 5-6 but the ceiling is so much higher. I haven't seen a storm this loaded since I was 4 years old in Alabama(the blIzzard of 93) and I barely even remember that

I'll be glad for any snow. I was here for Feb, then took the family to CO and we got caught in the huge blizzard. Was enough snow to last me a couple of years lol

[Quixotic]

Alright. Now the real fun begins. The emotional highs and lows. The freak outs when you get 6” and the guy down the road got 7.

Lol you know a few days ago I just wanted to get to around 5 inches which would be my biggest snowstorm still since I was a kid but there's so much potential up here with this... I mean double digits are possible if we changeover quick. I mean I'd be ok with 5-6 but the ceiling is so much higher. I haven't seen a storm this loaded since I was 4 years old in Alabama(the blIzzard of 93) and I barely even remember that

Yeah. I get it. I remember the February 12, 2010 storm. I only got 10” and it was gone in two days. Drove over to my Dads where the clouds never broke and he still had a foot on the ground. Was a little jelly but then March 9th came and the area saw 1” while for some reason, Collin County where I lived got 6”. So, yeah. Sometimes the bear eats you. Sometimes you eat the bear. My success mark with this storm is 3” total of ice sleet snow.

[gpsnowman]

Northwestern half of the metroplex is seeing freezing rain on NAM ~9pm Weds. Snow in the Falls and Norman.

I don't think we will be seeing the freezing line at enter the picture at 3 am. Earlier the better to get the snow and sleet going!!! And I agree about sleet. Something cool just listening to it hit the ground or hit the windows.

[Ntxw]

NAM is a huge dryslot in western Oklahoma.

[Haris]

NAM pounds Dallas but nothing else for the rest of us. Fast too.

[gboudx]

From Steve McCauley.
https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley

Clouds will be on the increase today along with showers developing, mainly - but not only - for the southern half of north Texas as we head into the afternoon. The farther south from DFW you are, the better the rain chances will be.
Of course, the main weather maker is our Wednesday-Thursday storm system that will bring rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow to much - BUT NOT ALL - of north Texas.
Nothing has changed since earlier outlooks, but that also means no specifics in terms of AMOUNTS of ice and snow can yet be given since we are still more than two days away from wintry precipitation.
Arctic cold front will arrive Wednesday with mild morning temperatures giving way to falling temperatures during the afternoon and evening along with cold rain developing. Then as temperatures drop below freezing Wednesday night, the changeover to freezing rain/sleet/snow will occur across much of the region.
It still appears the main winter precipitation type for the Metroplex will be freezing rain and sleet with the best - but not only - chance for snow to our west.
How much ice will we see and how much snow will folks out west get? UNKNOWN. It will be significant but still unknown.
What can be said is that temperatures with this system will NOT be record setting like we had last year. I am aware of some computer models going for a few subzero readings here in DFW but this is because those models are going for 5 to 10 inches of snow in the Metroplex, but the Stat Method completely rejects this scenario.
So, we wait until we are at least within 36 hours of the start of the winter precipitation to determine if this will be a slick-and-slide event or will it be more serious such as a power outage event. It is UNKNOWN at this time. It will depend on the exact moment we make the transition from cold rain to freezing rain and sleet Wednesday night, and this is the unknown variable this far out.
Now back to class !