Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard... you are easily impressed.

I was in Maple Valley and Auburn today and was not very impressed. It was more fun than most of the winter months. But nothing too dramatic.

Get a heavy shower... the temperature falls... rains stops and the temperature pops right back up. Standard spring-time weather in the Northern United States with cold air aloft.

Still... pretty tame compared to the PSCZ that R-Dub saw this morning or the one last week.

I hope tomorrow brings a round of wild thunderstorms to the Seattle area!! Today was too tame.

[snow_wizzard]

Totally awsome, radical, and cool! The new 0z run shows that a parade of troughs will continue to come through for at least another 10 days! It still shows the trough right behind this one will be decent, but now shows a third one. The only word of caution is the fact that the MJO shows signs it could be entering an unfavorable phase for this to continue much past the 20th. If we can get through this month with no warm periods it will one of the coldest April's of the past 25 years. In fact, it may be the coldest one I have ever recorded...records go back to 1978 with just a 2 year break when I lived in Cle Elum. Somebody, who shall remain nameless, would have to concede that one of the three coldest April's in the last 25 years would be significant. The coldest would be REALLY significant!

I am very excited about the next two days. There is some serious potential for some very wild weather! By the way...if the models are correct, the best potential for really heavy weather will be south of Seattle. The C zone area will be blocked by the Olympics and the surface pressure gradients very unfavorable for a C zone. In fact, that area had nothing today after the zone died out early in the day. The coldest and wettest weather for much of the day was south of Seattle and in Whatcom County! I would still say that thunderstorms, hail, and wet snow (on the hills) will be possible over the entire Puget Sound basin over the next two days, but mainly south of Seattle and in the far north.

[andycottle]

Light rain and 39 here at 10:52pm.

[snow_wizzard]

I am really impressed by the solid string of minus temperature departures on my weather records! Only one + day this month. Just the temps being below normal makes me 50% satisfied. Remember...It's the big picture....

By the way...I did a study several years ago about the precentage of colder than normal April's that lead to cold winters. It is quite impressive. I lost the table I made, but I am going to redo it.

April is a very key spring month, and October a very key fall month for determining the winter. Is it any coincidence that we have had almost no cold April's since 1975 and almost no cold winters since then? Another huge link I found was cold wet June, followed by a hot July, leads to a cold October and cold winter. Of course, nothing is 100%, but there are signs that are a good 70 - 80% effective.

[andycottle]

Now down to 38 as of 10:57pm.

[TT-SEA]

This is just the other side of a bland February and early March... nothing more.

This month has no bearing on next winter.

Something to watch... the system for this weekend looks different. It has a very good possibility of cutting off and not moving inland like the current GFS shows. It could very well linger over the Pacific and fade. Leaving us high and dry. Its something to watch.

The jet stream is starting to get weaker.

After 11+ inches of rain since March 16th here in North Bend... I would expect the pattern to calm down. If you look closely... the signs are there.

[snow_wizzard]

I partially agree that we need to watch the details very closely after this weekend. I still feel very good about trough number 2, but anything beyond that is simply wait and see for now.

I still marvel at the fact, it so cold already and the coldest air does not arrive until Wednesday night! We are going to see some highly below normal temps for the next three days. I think a record low high is possible tomorrow, and all of the record lows for tomorrow through Thursday are in danger, if we get enough clearing at night. You seem awfully sure of yourself TT. I think you are overlooking a very important predicting tool when you overlook how one thing leads to another...

Yet another thing, I may have to look up is years where the average high in April was lower than the average high in March. The only year I know that happened for sure is 1970...you guessed it. A good winter.

This year has had so many oddities, I have had to consult the records about a million times alreay!

[snow_wizzard]

TT...You will not be able to refute or top this! I looked through all of the April's back to 1890. The following is a list of the only colder than normal April's, which came after a warm March. Out of the 7 matches, six led to good winters. the only exception was 1986 - 87, which had a strong El Nino. An El Nino like that is not expected next winter! After each year I have the coldest monthly average for the following winter, coldest low temp, snowfall total. By the way...1928 is proving to be quite a good match! Very dry Feb, warm Mar, cold April. That means something in my book.

Seattle

1928 - 34.6 - 18 - 18.3" - Green Lake froze thick enough for ice skating

1961 - 38.4 - 13 - 10.6"

1968 - 33.1 - 6 - 67.5" - Snowiest winter for Sea - Tac

1970 - 39.0 - 23 - 16.1"

1972 - 38.1 - 13 - 9.1" - 9 consecutive highs of 32 or below in December

1984 - 37.1 - 19 - 8.1"

1986 - mild


Palmer

1928 - ? - 8 - 63.0"

1961 - 36.8 - 9 - 68.0"

1968 - 28.8 - minus 1 - 98.5"

1970 - 34.3 - 16 - 81.3"

1972 - 33.4 - 5 - 29.0"

1984 - 33.9 - 11 - 43.3"

1986 - 37.2 - 19 - 5.5"


Bothell

1984 - 35.2 - 15 - 19.7"

[andrewr]

I'm at 30F as of about 4:15am; it is pretty icy out there.

[andycottle]

33 degrees here at 4:29a.m. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Clear skies early this morning!! No precipitation. The only way to get near freezing in April is with clear skies.

Hopefully the system today can produce some thunderstorms.


Snow_Wizzard...

I decided to pick a year to test the validity. The spring of 1968 was not like this year at all.

1968 saw a WET February and a WET March and then a very DRY April.

That is OPPOSITE of this year.

Here is is my point... you twist statistics and historical records to prove what you want to prove. That is not science... and I am not sure if you even realize that you're doing it.

If you want to lie to yourself and be in a state of denial and disappointment all the time... go ahead. Just do not expect me to jump on your bandwagon.

There is NO evidence of a cold winter coming. It could be cold... but it could just as easily be warm. Global patterns are VERY fickle.

I bet you predict a cold winter every year. Come on... admit it. Then have to explain what went wrong.

Anyways... you have a good knowledge base about local weather. Its your emotions that cloud your judgement.

I mean no personal offense by what I am saying. You're a good guy... just not very objective.

[Guest]

Wow TT... I think you are a bit wrong about it only getting down to freezing when it is clear in April... And hmm, didn't you say it wouldn't get down to freezing tonight? We last night at about 9:30 it snowed pretty darn freakin hard here as the temp dropped all the way down to 33*F. It even stuck to the cars and there was 1/4 inch of snow on top. I got home videos and even tried to get a pic but that didn't workout because the flash bulb went off. In fact, there is still slush on the grass this morning and the temp is still sitting right above 32*... about 32.5* right now. And yesturday, I got 1.52" of rain, 3 heavy, long lasting downpours throughout the day, the last one ending in snow. I don't know how you can call that a boring day. And you might say it is because I live in a microclimate but that would just be ignoring the fact that somebody actually did get really exciting weather... Even in bellingham it was 34* with mix rain and snow and they got almost as much rain yesturday as I did. Now this morning, we have cold temps, some places below freezing as someone already posted a 30* reading this morning. There is moisture approaching rapidly from the coast and with that overrunning the cold air, we could possibly have snow in places later this morning. Now I don't know what will satisfy you as EXCITING WEATHER in april, but i know this is for me and a lot of other exciting weather lovers on here.

And I think you need to chill on Snowwizzard... there is no reason to ASSUME all of that BS you are assuming and bring down his knowledge... Seriously, he has given you pretty much every reasonable explination out there and you have shot him down every time. He really can't do much more to make you believe him. Stubbornness. This is rediculous. I can't believe you sometimes.

[Guest]

Also, he does not twist his evidence... he wants a cold and snowy winter of course, but when we are talking online and finding evidence, if he didn't really think it would help us out next year, he wouldn't get freakily excited and neither would I. I understand pretty much all of his explinations and I can honestly come off believing that next winter will most likely be a cold and snowy one.

TT, you are like a bold fact sheet, you have the 10 most BASIC facts and that's it. You have no detail or pizzazz to anything. I want to see your research to try to prove Snowwizz wrong about next winter, then we will see who can support their side of the argument better. All I am seeing from you is a pellet gun and a pigeon... you have the pellet gun and Snowwizz is the pigeon, and you are shooting him after everything he presents.

[Guest]

Hey TT, you say that this month has no effect on next winter... Well Why? Isn't weather a running phenomena that deals with cycles... What happens today effects tomorrow, and what happens tomorrow effects the next day. You just have to look at the larger picture. It has shown in the past that certain cycles boad well for certain types of weather... And the type of weather we have been experiencing during certain months boads well for a good winter next year. There are many signs coming together, one being the possibility that we are entering a new, colder climate phase....

And you say that there are signs of this pattern dying out... Well what are the signs? Are you suddenly going into detail and looking at the MJO? because that is actually one of the only things that is showing signs of the pattern ending, but very well could switch back to not supporting the pattern to change at all.

[TT-SEA]

1) The pattern is going to change by the middle of next week. Much drier and warmer.

2) As I said... the weather yesterday north of Everett was EXCITING... south of Everett was quite BORING. Hopefully today it is exciting everywhere. Note... I did not say the weather Bellingham was boring yesterday. Calm down dude.

3) Snow_Wizzard picks the winters he wants to repeat and then goes backward to find any shred of similarity. That is not scientific. That is emotional. Talk about creating your own reality!! Get a grip Brennan.

[andycottle]

Hey...look what could possibly heading my way! Rain! Maybe...just maybe this have some mixed in. That would be cool! -- Andy http://radar.wrh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS ... katx.shtml

[snow_wizzard]

31 in Covington this morning. A high of 47 would equal a daily temperature average 10 degrees below normal! Historically speaking, the greatest April cold spells come in with a few days averaging 10 - 12 degrees below normal. I AM IMPRESSED, and nothing will change that!

TT...You need to look at 1928 if you want a true match to this year. That one is perfect! That was one of the best winters of the 20th century. Snow on the ground for weeks in combination with a MAJOR long lasting cold spell!

One thing that many people will like is the fact that most of the years I listed had warm summers. July and August are likely to be the really good months.

[andycottle]

Viewing the latest 6z GFS this morning...the cool showery weather continues right through the weekend with a day or two of dry weather for the 18th/19th. More showers look to be in the forecast for the 20th/21st...except this time, conditions should be a bit warmer than cooler. -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

In truth...I sat down last night and looked up the cold April's that came after warm March's not knowing what I would find. The results were awsome! Earlier in the year, I looked at dry Feb's, where the dryness was not the result of a major cold spell. The results of that were astounding. I am simply taking the most glaring abnormalities of this year and comparing them with the past. I think it is short sigted to say I am wrong, before the event I'm prediciting has even arrived. If next winter is really cold, I will take full credit!

By the way...you must have missed the pitch black clouds, heavy rain, and thunder we had here yesterday. The late afternoon temps being at January levels was also worth noting! I was bored to tears!

[andycottle]

Hey folks...T-Storms still look`n really good for tomorrow afternoon as lifted indices will be -3 to -4 and CAPE vlaues rather impressive and at near the 400 J/KG mark. so should be an exciting day! -- andy