Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Countrygirl911]

they have usin SW mississippi with fluries to a lght dusting of snow but have the snow starting at 8 pm till 6 am here hopefully we get more than a dusting hattisburg is saying 1 to 3 inches but they ar further south than me so we should get he same amout hopefully but will believe it when i see it if not i will be loading the kids us and go ridig to find snow to play in

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
108 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY...

.A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR ICE FOR FORM ON ELEVATED
SURFACES AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ALZ004>007-009-016-TNZ076-096-097-170400-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WS.A.0001.130118T0900Z-130119T0000Z/
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-JACKSON-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-
FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...
DECATUR...SCOTTSBORO...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...FAYETTEVILLE...
WINCHESTER
108 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...STARTING AT 3 AM CST. INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN ALABAMA COUNTIES OF LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...
MORGAN...JACKSON...AND CULLMAN...ALONG WITH MOORE...LINCOLN...AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.

* OTHER HAZARDS...COLDER AIR RUSHING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE STORM
DEVELOPS...MAY RESULT IN RESIDUAL WATER FREEZING ON EXPOSED
SURFACES...BEFORE THE SNOW BEGINS. BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING
AFFECTED BY ICE.

* IMPACTS...WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES...ICE AND OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED ROADS AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well you guys further north and east enjoy whatever snow you get and post some pics for us down here that will see nothing Probably was our best chance this winter so unless something really surprises bring on severe weather season watching. Just dont think its our year along the gulf coast for any major artic outbreaks this go around regardless of what the long range gfs says. 40's with rain every other day is for the birds.

[Lane]

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
244 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...

.A STALLED SURFACE FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH
AS A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...A COLD
POLAR AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO GEORGIA. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS EAST GEORGIA. AS THIS LOW TRACKS TO
THE NORTHEAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD SWING INTO THE COLD
AIR MASS AND CAUSE THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-030>035-041>045-171000-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0001.130117T1800Z-130118T1500Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-
SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR
244 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO JEFFERSON.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLACK ICE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...ONE INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
WATCH AREA.

* TIMING...SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY MID
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

* IMPACTS...LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH ARE
POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BLACK ICE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW EVENING.

[Brent]

That's bullish from FFC... I'm really starting to feel this one... lol. Though I'm still planning to head up in elevation tomorrow for the best shot.

[Ntxw]

This is what the NAM has and most models generally agree on path. It's a marginal event so bust potential could be high especially for places like Atlanta and the lower elevations. It can also be a surprise for some if dynamic cooling manages to cool the surface temps enough

[bella_may]

The models are consistently trending temps colder that expected. I still think everyone north of I-10 has a decent shot of seeing a flake or two.

[TideJoe]

The models are consistently trending temps colder that expected. I still think everyone north of I-10 has a decent shot of seeing a flake or two.

Fingers crossed.

[Brent]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
235 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALICEVILLE TO JEMISON
TO ROANOKE. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW BEGINNING IN THE WEST
AROUND SUNRISE...SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING...AND END WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SNOWFALL COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH AT LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. HOWEVER...HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE THREAT AREA...AND THESE COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARILY
SLUSHY ROADWAYS. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
ADDITIONAL ROADWAY IMPACTS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. AS SNOW FALLS...VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
FURTHER COMPLICATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO A FLOODING THREAT...AND ON THURSDAY DUE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

$$

[SoupBone]

Well you guys further north and east enjoy whatever snow you get and post some pics for us down here that will see nothing Probably was our best chance this winter so unless something really surprises bring on severe weather season watching. Just dont think its our year along the gulf coast for any major artic outbreaks this go around regardless of what the long range gfs says. 40's with rain every other day is for the birds.

Not sure why you're calling a bust so soon for your area. As a matter of fact, the chances aren't that bad right for you to see some flurries.

[Lane]

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
343 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013

...SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THURSDAY...

.RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
ONE HALF TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ALICEVILLE TO JEMISON TO ROANOKE...BUT THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF
AREAS THAT RECEIVE UP TO 4 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS AREA MAY BE REQUIRES MORE ANALYSIS.
EXPECT THAT ALL AREAS NORTH OF THAT LINE WILL MINIMALLY BE
INCLUDED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW...
AND SOME AREAS MAY REQUIRE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES.

ALZ011>015-017>029-034>038-170600-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0001.130117T1200Z-130118T0000Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...
CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...
VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE
343 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS AROUND 6 AM IN THE WEST AND LASTS UNTIL 6 PM
IN THE EAST.

* LOCATION...IN THE WATCH WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALICEVILLE
TO JEMISON TO ROANOKE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...OF ONE HALF TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR UP TO 4 INCHES.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well you guys further north and east enjoy whatever snow you get and post some pics for us down here that will see nothing Probably was our best chance this winter so unless something really surprises bring on severe weather season watching. Just dont think its our year along the gulf coast for any major artic outbreaks this go around regardless of what the long range gfs says. 40's with rain every other day is for the birds.

Not sure why you're calling a bust so soon for your area. As a matter of fact, the chances aren't that bad right for you to see some flurries.

Not calling it a bust because it was never forecast to happen. Also all rain has moved north and east of Louisiana with clearing line now showing up in far western LA. I only have a 20% chance of light isolated showers in my area before midnight before dry air moves in and temps drop. So would.d say chances are pretty slim to none.

[Ntxw]

18z NAM's depiction of how the storm may play out

[Lane]

Any hope of it going just a little farther south say 20 miles?

[Janie2006]

Not biting on any wintry mix along the coast, although there's no reason to think it won't happen, say, 100-150 miles north. My local Facebook feed is lighting up with people going on about snow, but I just don't think it will happen. Can't quite rule out flurries, but only a very small window of opportunity IMO. I see no reason for the low to track further south than projected, so we'd need a lot of things coming together that just don't often happen here.

All my humble opinion, or course.

[bella_may]

18z NAM's depiction of how the storm may play out

Looks like the southern tip is right over my house before it ends. Fine by me

By the way, temps are still trending colder.

[Lane]

Well you guys further north and east enjoy whatever snow you get and post some pics for us down here that will see nothing Probably was our best chance this winter so unless something really surprises bring on severe weather season watching. Just dont think its our year along the gulf coast for any major artic outbreaks this go around regardless of what the long range gfs says. 40's with rain every other day is for the birds.

Not sure why you're calling a bust so soon for your area. As a matter of fact, the chances aren't that bad right for you to see some flurries.

Not calling it a bust because it was never forecast to happen. Also all rain has moved north and east of Louisiana with clearing line now showing up in far western LA. I only have a 20% chance of light isolated showers in my area before midnight before dry air moves in and temps drop. So would.d say chances are pretty slim to none.

The system is just now forming in LA, the system that you are speaking about with the rain is not associated with the ULL.

[LaBreeze]

Strangely enough, we had a brief (10 minutes) shower of sleet about an hour ago, here in Vermilion Parish. Nothing sticking, of course, but definitely sleet. All over with now.

[bella_may]

Hope you all have your popcorn ready!!

[One Eye]

I want mine with a diet coke and a bowl of snow ice cream for dessert! Crossing my fingers!