Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Portastorm]

To heck with the winter weather...anyone noticing the potential severe weather outbreak Thur evening over SE TX? Backed SE flow, strong vertical wind shear...could be some nasty storms Thu evening.

I justed posted about the severe issues here and on the "local Forum". This may the far greater threat and the real story for Central and SE TX than any wintry weather chances.

For sure ... let's not forget last week's dynamic El Nino system which rolled through Texas and spun up an F3 tornado in far NE Texas. Thursday is going to be a rough day around here whether it is snowing, sleeting, or raining on our heads.

[Tireman4]

Yeah That

[srainhoutx]

Just had a chance to look at some more 'detailed' data. The dynamics via the NAM suggests a convective side during the time when freezing rain/sleet is falling. This will no doubt be a big issues for some, but where and how much remains to be seen. Also, it is note worthy that there may be some severe weather as well with this system. We also need to keep that in mind. We often see these type late January/early February storms with a pattern change. Regarding the longer range beyond this storm, there are certainly signals that this will not be the last wintry type system we will see in TX or the Southern Plains.

srain - I'm not sure what area you're referring to when you mention NAM and freezing rain/sleet.

Check OKC wxman57. That is what I was addressing mainly.

[msstateguy83]

things looking VERY VERY bad for folks in okc that is for sure you take snow,sleet a frz rain its not pretty the overall totals of what could happen.

[txagwxman]

To heck with the winter weather...anyone noticing the potential severe weather outbreak Thur evening over SE TX? Backed SE flow, strong vertical wind shear...could be some nasty storms Thu evening.

I justed posted about the severe issues here and on the "local Forum". This may the far greater threat and the real story for Central and SE TX than any wintry weather chances.

For sure ... let's not forget last week's dynamic El Nino system which rolled through Texas and spun up an F3 tornado in far NE Texas. Thursday is going to be a rough day around here whether it is snowing, sleeting, or raining on our heads.

Exactly...now the latest GFS is much slower with the upper-level low...

[msstateguy83]

wxman57 is the man, have to agree man with no drastic changes in the 12z
i would have to say chances less then 20% of any sig probs in metroplex.
for one cold air will arrive to late then you will still have warm surface temps longer
then that so i would say travel should not be a prob unless for some odd reason
this system goes much further south.

[Ntxwx]

Im new to Storm2k and this board

[msstateguy83]

txagwxman ut oh, cold air in place in time then? i have not had time to look over the new gfs data just yet

[Tireman4]

Im new to Storm2k and this board

Welcome. We dont bite...LOL

[wxman57]

Made a 12Z NAM projection for DFW. Very little precip indicated as temps near freezing. This is raw NAM data:

[Weatherdude20]

Im gonna agree with Wxman57 probability is relatively low for the metro to see major travel impacts. 20-30%.

[Weatherdude20]

txagwxman ut oh, cold air in place in time then? i have not had time to look over the new gfs data just yet

Check out the new gfs data !!!!

[msstateguy83]

wxman57 whats your take on this from what iam seeing we are seeing a MAJOR shift of precip to the
south per the 12z gfs

[iorange55]

Doesn't look like it'd be cold enough in all layers for snow yet with all that precip, but with it hanging around longer Im not sure if the temps reach freezing for any ice, or not.

[wxman57]

Made a few similar graphics for Wichita Falls, as at least one of you is from that area. Don't have the 12Z GFS, but I do have the 12Z NAM. Note that the 12Z NAM indicates significantly more moisture with the cold air in place than the 06Z GFS:

12Z NAM:


06Z GFS:

[Outlaw JW]

Anybody have an idea on snow/ice for San Angelo to Del Rio?

[Weatherdude20]

Anybody have an idea on snow/ice for San Angelo to Del Rio?

Whos to say you won't get anything? But it looks like nws is backing off winter precip for Del Rio/San Angelo dude. You should get some good rain though ! :p

Edit: Lows around 40

[wxman57]

wxman57 whats your take on this from what iam seeing we are seeing a MAJOR shift of precip to the
south per the 12z gfs

12z GFS isn't in far enough to make new graphics. But a side-by-side comparison of the 12Z GFS vs. 06Z shows the 12Z is much slower with the cold air coming down, meaning warmer air aloft during the precip period. Less post-frontal precip with the 12Z GFS. I don't see any southward shift in frozen precip with the 12Z GFS. If anything, a slight northward shift.

I'll make a 12Z GFS comparison graphic if the data come in before I have to leave for lunch at 11 then an all-afternoon client meeting.

[Ntxwx]

I think it's begining to trend more south.

[wxman57]

I think it's begining to trend more south.

Welcome to the board. By the way, could you add your location to your profile so that we can see your area of concern? North Texas (Ntxwx) could be anywhere from Tyler to Amarillo.

Can you tell us what's trending more south, and what are you looking at to base this decision?