Texas Winter 2013-2014

[stormlover2013]

WOWW the CMC goes crazy!!!!
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

Talking about next week? That is insane

no talking about this week, next week is insane but this week it shows tons of moisture!!!

[Portastorm]

WOWW the CMC goes crazy!!!!
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

Talking about next week? That is insane

Not saying I concur but some of us have been telling everyone that the pattern would change as we neared the end of January and that the focus of the colder, stormier weather would move to the western and central USA.

[TheProfessor]

It's way to dry here. I hate dry weather.

Edit: I don't want to live on this planet anymore!

[downsouthman1]

EWX must be taking their time to sort out this mess too, they are not rushing to update their forecast discussion.

They normally only do AFDs twice a day & the new one probably won't come out till after 2PM today.

Actually it'll be more like 3:15, 3:30 p.m. Don't be surprised if most of the NWSFOs in Texas issue their afternoon AFDs today late. Very difficult forecast.

I concur. FWD will likely be after 4 today.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

WOWW the CMC goes crazy!!!!
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

Talking about next week? That is insane

Not saying I concur but some of us have been telling everyone that the pattern would change as we neared the end of January and that the focus of the colder, stormier weather would move to the western and central USA.

*clears throat*
*puts hands up for a high five*

[TheProfessor]

It's way to dry here. I hate dry weather.

[Tireman4]

WOWW the CMC goes crazy!!!!
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

Talking about next week? That is insane

Not saying I concur but some of us have been telling everyone that the pattern would change as we neared the end of January and that the focus of the colder, stormier weather would move to the western and central USA.

You almost gave into the Dark Lord of Summer. He was asking you to dance and you were thinking about it. We had to talk you out of it. We are glad you are back sir. Remember folks, PWC news conference. 4 pm. Today. There are over 100 press credentials approved and many more want streaming.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

I know this isn't weather related, but there has been a shooting at the University of Oklahoma. Please send some good thoughts/prayers.

[JDawg512]

:ggreen: Alright then. The TV news stations here in Austin are forecasting snow. I'm getting pretty excited about it now that I'm seeing that.

Well looks like you got the kiss of death. It's like Fight Club; the first rule about forecasted snow in Texas is, you don't talk about forecasted snow in Texas.

I typically don't get too excited over forecasted winter events unless I have a gut feeling lol. Can't explain it but it's not just looking at the data but I just have a feeling it will happen. Now how much and in what form is still up in the air but I will go ahead and say I'm 80% sure we will see some wintery precipitation in Austin by Friday.

The last couple of snow events, most recently the 2011 one, I had the same feeling and sure enough got snow that morning.

[downsouthman1]

You almost gave into the Dark Lord of Summer. He was asking you to dance and you were thinking about it. We had to talk you out of it. We are glad you are back sir. Remember folks, PWC news conference. 4 pm. Today. There are over 100 press credentials approved and many more want streaming.

I've been basically ignoring this system on purpose. Trying something new to make it snow in CTX.

[Portastorm]

That is correct, Tireman4 ... today's press event looks to a big one. I appreciate the dedication of winter weather lovers on this forum who threw me a rope and pulled me out of the ditch.

Meanwhile, I highly recommend folks read the latest from Larry Cosgrove. Check out his Facebook page or see his post on the KHOU Community Weather Forum. Most of you will read it with joy. He appears to be growing more and more bullish on the event.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think i have too much confidence in this event maybe but the models have been fairly consistent in their own way. I dont remember the lead up on the models for the 2011 event though. We were expecting 5 inches in Houston though and Jim Cantore had to switch locales fast lol.

That said, have we factored in if the Arctic Air comes in colder than planned? What will that do to the temps in the atmosphere and what effect will it have on P-type?

[Portastorm]

I sure wish EWX would do mid-morning AFDs. They stopped a while back and I'm not sure why. Oh well, anyhow ... HGX and FWD have posted their latest thinking:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1112 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
AND A 11 AM EXTENDED FROM NEAR MCALESTER TO NEAR BRIDGEPORT AND
BRECKENRIDGE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM DURING THE DAY WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE MUCH LESS
WARMING.

THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS WHERE...WHEN AND HOW
MUCH OF A WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS EVENT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN 1/4 INCH TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE OUTLIER IS THE SREF MODEL WHICH HAS THE
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH TO ALONG I-20 AND HAS THE
HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES CENTERED AROUND
COMANCHE. WE WILL UPDATE THE FIRST PERIOD OF TODAYS FORECAST AT
MIDDAY AND CONCENTRATE ON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. 75



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1044 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 60S TODAY. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

MAIN CONCERN AND FOCUS OF AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL BE WINTER
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND QUITE POSSIBILY MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
EARLY GLANCE AT 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.
GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER AGAIN WITH NOT MUCH PRECIP AT ALL DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. THE NAM IS STILL SOMEWHAT WET BUT HAS MOST OF THE
PRECIP FALLING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES
THROUGH WET-BULB THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES. LATEST SREF
PROBABILITIES HINT AT THIS. PRECIP TYPE FORECAST LOOKING LIKE A
MIX OF ZR/IP FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MAY HAVE A MIX OF SNOW FROM
COLLEGE STATION TO LUFKIN BUT DEPENDS ON MOISTURE ABOVE -10C LEVEL
FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. EVEN WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT COASTAL AREAS
AS COLD AIR AND WIND COULD ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO FREEZE ON ELEVATED
SURFACES BUT NOT NECESSARILY ROADS.

[gpsnowman]

Comanche. Almost. Let's get that snow line up about 100 miles and we got ourselves a deal!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Euro running yet?

[South Texas Storms]

Euro running yet?

Yeah the Euro is definitely wetter across much of central and southeast Texas. It's now showing widespread snow totals of .50 inch to 1 inch.

[stormlover2013]

yes its running
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[gboudx]

:
Meanwhile, I highly recommend folks read the latest from Larry Cosgrove. Check out his Facebook page or see his post on the KHOU Community Weather Forum. Most of you will read it with joy. He appears to be growing more and more bullish on the event.

If you live in and near the DFW area, you don't have to bother reading it since it doesn't suggest anything up this far north. I hope you folks to the south get an abundance of "good" wintry fun.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Can never get good details on the Euro but it does look wetter and 850 looks colder. Correct?

[Subsurface Creep]

Hey Storm2K'ers,

First time poster, but long time lurker on the Texas Wx pages here. I just wanted to say I love "geeking out" on the models with y'all and gleaning valuable tidbits of meteorlogical knowledge. Too bad the World's Greatest Weatherman, Harold Taft, (who said "never predict snow until you see it fallin' ") isn't still around to contribute to the great discussions here.