Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Lagreeneyes03]

Well here's hoping we get our snow. And then bring on the 70's-80's and Thunderstorms. Spring Break needs to be nice weather not freezing my toes off. (Which means anything below 65 in my book).

[Brent]

FWD is going in already

Tuesday Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Much colder. Highs around 40.

Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A less than 20 percent chance of snow. Colder. Lows around 19.

THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY
THAT SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH. AS THE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD
RAIN FOR TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...COOL SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH FAVORABLE
SATURATION AND TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROW ZONE FOR SNOW
TO DEVELOP. CURRENTLY WE ARE ONLY SEEING PWATS OF 1/4 TO 1/3 INCH
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT FALL TO LESS THAN 1/4 INCH BY TUESDAY
MIDNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 700MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL INCREASE MID-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION AND SHUTDOWN THE SNOW MAKING PROCESS. THUS..WE ARE ONLY
FORECASTING 1/2 INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH OF I-20
AND MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE IT ENDS TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE ARCTIC AIR WILL SIT OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WE
HAVE UNDER CUT MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY
BE REACHED EARLY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ALONG THE RED RIVER TO LOWER
40S AROUND AND SOUTH OF WACO.

NEXT WEEKS OUTLOOK FOR SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. THE
UPPER TROUGH COULD HANG TO THE WEST A LITTLE LONGER AND DELAY THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...DRAG IN MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION OR ARRIVE SOONER WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
RATHER WARM FOR THE SNOW PROCESS. 75

[Ralph's Weather]

FWD putting snow in the forecast late in the forecast period should instill some confidence in our forecasts. SHV put it in my forecast also. It sure is nice to have the backing of the pros.

[Brent]

FWD putting snow in the forecast late in the forecast period should instill some confidence in our forecasts. SHV put it in my forecast also. It sure is nice to have the backing of the pros.

Not just that... but I checked back east and even JAN and BMX have snow in the forecast and over there it's even more questionable if it will snow.

[aggiecutter]

Shreveport AFD: Looks like a good chance of snow for Texarkana on Tuesday night-Wednesday morning:

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A MESS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME TSTMS ACROSS E OF A LINE FROM TOLEDO
BEND TO KELD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LARGE
CHUNK OF DEEP ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP COMPLETELY EXITS THE
AREA. /09/

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS doe snot dig the trough quite as far into the SW and it is even drier than 12Z, but the main thing is the 500mb pattern is still about as good as it gets for Arctic air. I am not losing confidence yet on the snow chances just because of a couple dry runs as long as we still have a SW low involved.

[gpsnowman]

Dang it!!! I am all in. This has to be the one folks. Please don't burn us!!!!

[somethingfunny]

Well this escalated quickly.

[Texas Snowman]

Well this escalated quickly.

Yeah, in a little more than 24 hours, we went from Wxman 57 sounding the bell that winter's over in Texas to he's providing evidence that suggests otherwise.

Doesn't mean any of this will materialize as far as winter precip is concerned, but it does look more and more promising that it's about to get cold again in Texas.

[Tireman4]

We're gonna win. We're gonna win.

[Texas Snowman]

We're gonna win. We're gonna win.

Don't poke the bear!

[Brent]

[dhweather]

Now the only thing we are missing is DHWeather and his Lucy GIF Hopefully she can be tamed this time.

You rang ??

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Another extended streak of very mild days in early February…but this will all be ending by this time next week as a 1048mb arctic high crashes down the plains.

Not much to speak about in the short range (through the weekend). A weak cold front will cross the area Wednesday and knock temperatures back down to near or slightly above normal for this time of year. Moisture is extremely limited and do not expect any rainfall with this front. Lows will fall into the 40’s Thursday and Friday with highs in the lower 60’s. Highs return to the 60’s and 70’s over the weekend, but clouds also begin to increase. Rain chances look to return by Monday of next week as warm air advection increases moisture off the Gulf of Mexico and mid/high level moisture streams into the region from the southwest.

Upper air pattern of late that has been locked in place with cold arctic air aimed at the NE US with frequent winter storms and ridging over the SW US into the southern plains resulting in the dry and warm weather locally. This streak of mild and dry weather will end by early to mid next week as the ridge over the SW US repositions off the US west coast and amplifies into Alaska. A very cold air mass currently resides over NW Canada with temperatures in the -25F to -35F range. The west coast ridge punching into the Alaska will force a large downstream central US trough which will unleash a strong arctic high pressure cell out of NW Canada into the central plains early next week. Medium range models are in decent agreement on the developing upper air pattern which adds confidence that some fairly cold air will be heading southward by the middle of next week. Since we are still about 7 days out will not attempt to resolve low temperatures and just how cold it might get. Current guidance suggests sub-freezing temperatures are certainly possible all the way to the coast.

Other item of interest is a short wave which drops through the longwave trough and across TX in the Tuesday/Wednesday time period. Suspect cold arctic air mass will either be moving into the region or already in place as this shortwave moves across. Not sure at this point if there will be enough moisture to squeeze out any precipitation, but thermal profiles suggest a wintry mix would be possible over portions of the area if moisture is available.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion..Spring to Winter!!

FOR DAY 7...NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE BIG PICTURE IMPLIES MUCH COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIR AS EVENT RESEMBLES A TRUE BLUE `NORTHER THAN
MOST OF OUR FRONTS HAVE BEEN THIS WINTER. THE TIGHT TEMPERATURE
AND THICKNESS PACKING SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF 40+ MPH
GUSTS SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE FAIRLY RAPIDLY AND COULD REACH
40 JUST 18 HOURS AFTER REACHING THE MID 80S IN SOME SPOTS. BRISK
BUT GENERALLY SUNNY WEATHER WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A POCKET OF
MID CLOUDS AIDED BY SHEAR ENERGY RUNNING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY FALLING BELOW
0C...WOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
/52-BSG/

[Ntxw]

Today and tomorrow marks the 5 year anniversary of the greatest snowfall in DFW history. Relive it through the infamous 2009/2010 Texas winter thread. One of the most prolific bust in NWS FW busts. From nothing to 1-2 inches while 2-4 inches was already on the ground. From the GFS showing Nada the night before while the NAM was the lonely dog. It kept coming and it kept piling, they finally said 4-6 inches while over 8" was already on the ground. May we relive those days again and again...

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106895&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=5800

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I remember, i drove into Dallas at around 3pm and East of Dallas on 20 was NOT FUN. I did slide much at all, but the roads were completely covered. My sports sedan wasnt a big fan. I have a pic somewhere of my front grill encased in snow from the drive. I also remember how the snow NEVER quit till about 3 am. it was crazy.

[Ntxw]

I remember, i drove into Dallas at around 3pm and East of Dallas on 20 was NOT FUN. I did slide much at all, but the roads were completely covered. My sports sedan wasnt a big fan. I have a pic somewhere of my front grill encased in snow from the drive. I also remember how the snow NEVER quit till about 3 am. it was crazy.

It was very crazy. One aspect of this storm that stuck out with me was the power of the subtropical jet. The storm itself wasn't that strong nor was the moisture plume with it that great. The night before it kicked out, the intense STJ was drawn up and dumped a quick 2-4 inches before the system even arrived. The relentless impulses came from the STJ that brought wave after wave of precip until the main system arrived the night before it ended which by then we were already approaching the 10 inch mark. The actual system itself got us over the foot.

[gboudx]

DFW NWS page on that snow event:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 3&source=0

[weatherdude1108]

This first paragraph of Bob Rose's blog sums it up nicely.

I want to highlight some changes in the outlook for next week. Although we've been enjoying spring-like temperatures for several days now, winter is going to make a return to our area with significantly colder temperatures and even a hint of some wintery precipitation.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx