Texas Winter 2021-2022

[TheProfessor]

I've mentioned the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) before. Since this site is available to the public I'm allowed to share it. This did insanely well with our historic windstorm in December so it will be interesting to see if it does well again. It's been pretty consistently targeting southern Kansas and NE Oklahoma. Generally when values are between 0.5-0.8 it's hinting at an unusual event. Above 0.8 and you're talking about a very unusual event. Additionally, the lines represent the shift of tails. When an SoT of 0 shows up it means 10% of the ensembles are above the percentiles, signaling an even more impactful event. The higher the SoT the the bigger the signal is.

[EnnisTx]

From Steve McCauley.
https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley

Clouds will be on the increase today along with showers developing, mainly - but not only - for the southern half of north Texas as we head into the afternoon. The farther south from DFW you are, the better the rain chances will be.
Of course, the main weather maker is our Wednesday-Thursday storm system that will bring rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow to much - BUT NOT ALL - of north Texas.
Nothing has changed since earlier outlooks, but that also means no specifics in terms of AMOUNTS of ice and snow can yet be given since we are still more than two days away from wintry precipitation.
Arctic cold front will arrive Wednesday with mild morning temperatures giving way to falling temperatures during the afternoon and evening along with cold rain developing. Then as temperatures drop below freezing Wednesday night, the changeover to freezing rain/sleet/snow will occur across much of the region.
It still appears the main winter precipitation type for the Metroplex will be freezing rain and sleet with the best - but not only - chance for snow to our west.
How much ice will we see and how much snow will folks out west get? UNKNOWN. It will be significant but still unknown.
What can be said is that temperatures with this system will NOT be record setting like we had last year. I am aware of some computer models going for a few subzero readings here in DFW but this is because those models are going for 5 to 10 inches of snow in the Metroplex, but the Stat Method completely rejects this scenario.
So, we wait until we are at least within 36 hours of the start of the winter precipitation to determine if this will be a slick-and-slide event or will it be more serious such as a power outage event. It is UNKNOWN at this time. It will depend on the exact moment we make the transition from cold rain to freezing rain and sleet Wednesday night, and this is the unknown variable this far out.
Now back to class !

Not sure when he will update, but that was 12 plus hours ago.

[Texas Snow]

0z NAM is faster with the cold. No surprise there..

Unless if you live in far southwestern Collin County. look at that 3z to 9z. That damn 32 line just won’t budge across.

And no, I am not taking that verbatim

[gpsnowman]

Some of the radar depictions from the local tv reports show some heavy precip just as the freezing air comes through. So in a way this does remind me of the Super Bowl week storm when the rain was heavy then turned to heavy sleet and skipped the freezing rain aspect. This was the first time I heard thunderlseet. I would love to witness that again.

[txtwister78]

Delivers the cold faster than NAM even though NAM seems to be catching up.

[gboudx]

From Steve McCauley.
https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley

Clouds will be on the increase today along with showers developing, mainly - but not only - for the southern half of north Texas as we head into the afternoon. The farther south from DFW you are, the better the rain chances will be.
Of course, the main weather maker is our Wednesday-Thursday storm system that will bring rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow to much - BUT NOT ALL - of north Texas.
Nothing has changed since earlier outlooks, but that also means no specifics in terms of AMOUNTS of ice and snow can yet be given since we are still more than two days away from wintry precipitation.
Arctic cold front will arrive Wednesday with mild morning temperatures giving way to falling temperatures during the afternoon and evening along with cold rain developing. Then as temperatures drop below freezing Wednesday night, the changeover to freezing rain/sleet/snow will occur across much of the region.
It still appears the main winter precipitation type for the Metroplex will be freezing rain and sleet with the best - but not only - chance for snow to our west.
How much ice will we see and how much snow will folks out west get? UNKNOWN. It will be significant but still unknown.
What can be said is that temperatures with this system will NOT be record setting like we had last year. I am aware of some computer models going for a few subzero readings here in DFW but this is because those models are going for 5 to 10 inches of snow in the Metroplex, but the Stat Method completely rejects this scenario.
So, we wait until we are at least within 36 hours of the start of the winter precipitation to determine if this will be a slick-and-slide event or will it be more serious such as a power outage event. It is UNKNOWN at this time. It will depend on the exact moment we make the transition from cold rain to freezing rain and sleet Wednesday night, and this is the unknown variable this far out.
Now back to class !

Not sure when he will update, but that was 12 plus hours ago.

Yeah I know. Admittedly I’m not on FB so I don’t know how something like this happens. I was checking his page a few times today, last at about 5pm with no new updates. Then I see a new post from 11 hours ago. Maybe it was a caching issue. Who knows.

[TheProfessor]

Should have mentioned those EFI maps are only for snow (and unusual snow) so it's not going to highlight an ice event in DFW. DFW could get 4" of sleet and 2" of snow, but since that snow isn't too unusual it won't appear on the EFI. EFI does highlight the unusual amount of QPF on the other hand.

[jaguars_22]

I think all the models are showing some type of upper low coming into Texas Saturday. Question is how strong and how cold will it be when it does. If it’s cold enough south central Texas could get something

[wxman57]

I can just picture the heat miser standing all bundled up pushing his hardest to keep the wall up just North of the Houston area.

No need, my wall is holding. Latest two GFS runs keep Houston warmer than last week. No freeze. I let enough air come down to provide a nice ice storm for my D-FW friends.

I seriously hope you really don’t believe Houston isn’t going to get down to freezing.

Well, we're forecasting around 28-29F, but I'm hopeful my wall holds.

[Ralph's Weather]

I work for a utility consulting company. We are mobilizing all available field, office and stand by employees for emergency storm assessment across the country. I have too much on my plate work wise so I'll be working from home but we have teams travelling all over to assess damage to lines and poles.

[Quixotic]

Should have mentioned those EFI maps are only for snow (and unusual snow) so it's not going to highlight an ice event in DFW. DFW could get 4" of sleet and 2" of snow, but since that snow isn't too unusual it won't appear on the EFI. EFI does highlight the unusual amount of QPF on the other hand.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/r4RqzTg/EFI-Texas-QPF.png [/url]

Thanks for this. I didn’t even know it existed. As a statistician, it intrigues me. I did something like this for the DFW rainfall for 2015.

[Brent]

News stream just showed about 8 inches here then he went "that's probably too extreme" foot confirmed

[utweather]

I think all the models are showing some type of upper low coming into Texas Saturday. Question is how strong and how cold will it be when it does. If it’s cold enough south central Texas could get something

The one that came in today has been relentless. Been raining all day. Bastrop county is still under a flash flood warning. It was extended earlier.
If this came thru with colder temps it would have been monumental.

[Ntxw]

RGEM is a sleetfest for DFW. Thursday morning it is very close to full changeover to snow, the warm nose is very small with the second round of qpf.

Austin gets in on the sleetfest in the morning also. Canadian will probably be a hot run.

[Ntxw]

And this along the coast.

[TheProfessor]

For people who are right on transition lines with very small warm noses one thing to look for is cooling due to the absorption of latent heat. With heavy precip expecting you can expect melting snow to cool the column some. If you're close it may be the last straw to turn a sleet storm into a mostly snow event.

[Brent]

For people who are right on transition lines with very small warm noses one thing to look for is cooling due to the absorption of latent heat. With heavy precip expecting you can expect melting snow to cool the column some. If you're close it may be the last straw to turn a sleet storm into a mostly snow event.

That's kind of my theory here too with this talk of sleet

[Texas Snow]

GFS! GFS! GFS!

Lots of sleet followed by more snow making its way into DFW than previous runs. Trend is good.

[txtwister78]

GFS definitely by far the most bullish of all models. Still think it's a bit too extreme based on other models but wow if that verifies.

[Cerlin]

It’s just hard for me to believe that warm nose isn’t going to erode quicker. With the precip rates modeled, I’m inclined to believe it will supercool and thus erode the warm nose