FW Discussion. Thundersleet (TSIP)
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1241 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
A major winter storm remains on track to impact North and Central
Texas beginning this evening and continuing through the weekend,
with impacts from the winter storm lingering into Monday and
Tuesday.
Latest surface observations show the Arctic cold front has pushed
southward into North Texas and is currently near a Bowie to
Sherman line. Temperatures have already fallen into the upper 30s
immediately behind the front, with the freezing line further north
from just north of Wichita Falls to north of Ardmore. The front
is anticipated to continue southward through North Texas this
afternoon/evening and into Central Texas tonight, with the
freezing line reaching DFW around 04-06Z and Temple/Killeen around
12Z tomorrow morning. Strong WAA aloft is underway across our
region ahead of a large upper low off the west coast of Baja
California, with radar showing widespread light to moderate rain
now across much of North and Central Texas.
As the Arctic front undercuts the ongoing rain this evening into
tomorrow, rain will change to freezing rain from north to south
with ice accumulations beginning fairly quickly on elevated
surfaces as temperatures continue to fall into the 20s tonight
into tomorrow. As the shallow cold air near the surface deepens
with time overnight into Saturday, freezing rain will transition
to sleet as the predominate precipitation type across North Texas.
For Central Texas, the cold air will remain more shallow with a
stronger warm nose aloft, so freezing rain is anticipated to be
the main precip type with sleet mixing in occasionally. CAMs such
as the HRRR also indicate a few thunderstorms could develop at
times within the broad precipitation shield, especially tonight
into Saturday morning, which could lead to thundersleet (TSIP) or
thunder-freezing rain (TSFZRA) and enhance precipitation rates.
Models indicate there will be somewhat of a lull in precipitation
on Saturday afternoon as the first upper wave exits the region,
but the main upper low will eject eastward quickly on its heels
and bring more widespread, heavy precipitation Saturday evening
through Saturday night. Despite temperatures falling into the
10s, sleet looks to be the main precip type across North Texas
during this timeframe with freezing rain across Central Texas due
to a strong warm nose aloft. A few thunderstorms also appear
likely which would lead to periods of heavy sleet/freezing rain.
As the main upper wave shifts over and east of us Sunday morning,
this should finally cool the warm nose aloft for a transition to
snow across North Texas before precipitation quickly ends across
the entire area from west to east Sunday afternoon.
Latest storm total ice, sleet and snow accumulations remain
similar to previous forecasts. Combined sleet/snow totals around
1 inch are expected in Central Texas, with 1 to 5 inch amounts in
North Texas. Ice amounts around 1/4 to 1/2 inch are expected for
most of our area, although isolated 3/4 inch ice amounts are
possible in our East Texas counties. Given these higher ice
amounts in East Texas, along with the gusty north winds
anticipated Saturday/Sunday, and our neighbors changing hazards
to an Ice Storm Warning, have issued a small Ice Storm Warning for
our southeast counties to match with SHV/HGX. Despite the hazard
name change, our messaging and impacts remain the same for these
counties with hazardous travel and scattered power outages
anticipated.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
