Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

Im new to Storm2k and this board

Welcome aboard! Chime right in.

Thanks, can we go back to the weather now ? lol. . .

We're trying to. Folks, just had a chance to look at some Long Range data. I know we are focused on Wednesday-Friday, but the are some very impressive signal that we will see a major shift to a colder regime during the later part of the first week in February. The trend today has been for the -AO to move up a tad from yesterday, but the ensembles suggest a tanking AO(-3) as well as a MMW (major mid-winter warming in the stratosphere and reversal of wind flow in the troposphere) event unfolding. There are also suggests that +PNA (west coast ridge) is in the offing. The STJ (sub tropical jet) looks to become very active as well. Those longing for wintry weather in TX main see those dreams come true as we head into February.

[Ntxw]

I just hope it doesn't get too cold to snow February is the month I have my hopes up for snow the most around here. Past few winters have disappointed. Also about wxman I have the greatest respect for him, he probably knows more about weather now then I will ever in my lifetime. Though a lot of the stuff he is giving us is great but some of it is straight from model data which obviously can fluctuate as seen

[txagwxman]

ECMWF slower now, and more backed at the surface (due east wind at CLL at 6z Thursday night!)...could be some nasty hp supercells over CLL, DWH, UTS, CXO, IAH, 11R. Hopefully it stays in the upper 50s to low 60s and we stay away from the real juice to our south...if not watch out Thu evening.

Doesn't look as cold in Houston Sunday either on the new ECMWF ---oh well.

[Ntxw]

ECMWF slower now, and more backed at the surface (due east wind at CLL at 6z Thursday night!)...could be some nasty hp supercells over CLL, DWH, UTS, CXO, IAH, 11R. Hopefully it stays in the upper 50s to low 60s and we stay away from the real juice to our south...if not watch out Thu evening.

What does that mean for the cold sector? Still the same? I'm very limited in abilities to read the EC

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW UPDATE:

.UPDATE...
WE WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT FORECAST TO RIDE THROUGH MIDDAY AND PUT
OUR CONCENTRATION ON THE WED-FRI SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR
FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION. THIS MORNING GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-20/30 ARE MORE SUITED FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

going to be closer than first thought with frozen precip, but still alot of rain across the area.

[Weatherdude20]

Will someone please revive this thread, its quite considering the MAJOR WINTER STORM.
lol

[Ntxw]

Will someone please revive this thread, its quite considering the MAJOR WINTER STORM.
lol

Nothing has really changed that much yet. Observation data tonight initializing into the models from the system coming on shore should stir some buzz.

[Ntxwx]

Any ideas on how what all Bridgeport will get?

[msstateguy83]

i will try and post some graphics in the next few hours... i expect a more s-ward trend but we will see just my opinion.. also a good source of watching this system over the next 24 hours or so would be on the sat image as it enters the western us to track its path, movement...

[Ntxw]

Ensembles sure seems to think so on the southward track.

[jasons2k]

Doesn't look as cold in Houston Sunday either on the new ECMWF ---oh well.

Music to my ears

I also noticed the NWS has raised temps this weekend a tad. 31-32-ish is much easier to deal with than the mid-upper 20's that have been talked about/advertised the last few days.

[srainhoutx]

Ensembles sure seems to think so on the southward track.

The PV is holding strong. Let's see what the guidance shows once we get this thing onshore tonight in CA and have some additional RAOBS data ingested.

[Ntxw]

That would suppress the system more southerly right Srain?

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow: That would suppress the system more southerly right Srain?

Here's what the HPC is thinking right now...

HPC Final Extended Disco...suggests a slower and southern track of the 500mb low...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
201 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2010

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 29 2010 - 12Z TUE FEB 02 2010

...HEAVY SNOW/ICE SWATH LIKELY FROM THE TN VALLEY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
MID-ATLC FRI INTO SAT...

A NEGATIVE ANOMALY EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
ARE EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY/FLATTEN THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN TO ONE OF
QUICKER WESTERLIES DECREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST WITH TIME ALL ON ITS OWN. THIS PATTERN FITS MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE 00Z ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD. EVEN EARLY
ON...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS ISSUES CONCERNING A CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN CANADA WHICH PLAYS A ROLE TO FLATTEN THE LOW TRACK DOWN
ACROSS THE SERN US. THIS TRACK APPEARS SLIGHTLY TOO FAR
SOUTH/SOMEWHAT SLOW PER MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBER CLUSTERING.
THE 00/06 UTC GFS MEANWHILE APPEAR TO BE TRANSFERRING SRN STREAM
ENERGY TOO QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM INTO A LEAD CAROLINA COASTAL LOW
POSITION IN LEU OF DIGGING BACK OVER THE SERN US SAT TO THE LEE OF
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. WITH OUR EARLIER
PRELIM PACKAGE...THE GUIDANCE THAT HAPPENED TO BEST FIT THE
EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN AND WAS PLACED PREFERABLY WITHIN THE
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTION ENVELOPE WAS A COMPROMISE OF THE
25/12Z ECMWF AND THE 26/00Z GEFS MEAN. THIS BLEND SLOWED DOWN LOW
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE SOUTH SLIGHTLY FROM HPC CONTINUITY AT THAT
TIME. UPDATED INFO FROM 12Z MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
THAT LESS PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM TREND AND LEADS TO A MORE
SUPPRESSED LOW EJECTION. THE HPC FINAL PROGS WERE MANUALLY HEDGED
SLIGHTLY IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE 12 UTC ECMWF
THAT STILL LIES ON THE SOUTHWARD EDGE OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN HPC CONTINUITY UPSTREAM WITH PACIFIC
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE WEST AT A HIGHER LATITUDE THAN EXPECTED
YESTERDAY DUE TO A MUCH WEAKER/DISAPPEARING NEGATIVE ANOMALY NEAR
THE 160TH MERIDIAN. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER 48...A
WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OUT FROM THE WEST SAT/SUN AND
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS THEN SRN US MON/TUE...SPREADING RAIN ALONG
ITS PATH WITH SNOW POSSIBLE ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON ITS
HEELS...AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BRINGING THE PROMISE OF RAIN TO THAT REGION BY MID
NEXT WEEK.

ROTH/SCHICHTEL

[Ntxw]

Plot thickens...btw this is from FW

[msstateguy83]

stand by i have a graphic iam making that will light up some eyeballs... major changes in my forecast forthcoming...

[CaptinCrunch]

Plot thickens...btw this is from FW

50 miles futher to the SE will make a big differnce for DFW area

[Ntxw]

There's been signs that have charged at a southerly track, personal opinion I'm not even sure if it's south enough just yet. Trends...I had a feeling before that the PV Srain mentioned would have some effect blocking the northward progression of the low, lets see if it holds true.

[rainman31]

What good is the southern track if the temps are to warm? for DFW?

[Ntxw]

What good is the southern track if the temps are to warm? for DFW?

Less likely to get dry slotted once the temps are cold enough for snow\ice. More post frontal precip. Im not greedy, several inches of snow for fun is enough for me, no need of the zero visibility and a nightmare for drivers =p