Texas Winter 2020-2021

[txtwister78]

Man...that's ice storm criteria in the Hill Country. Hopefully too bullish.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

EWX discussion

000
FXUS64 KEWX 102016
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
216 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021


Operational ECMWF has now come in much colder Monday into Tuesday,
more in line with the GFS although still a touch warmer. Although
it`s associated ensemble mean is a touch warmer still, confidence is
moderate to high that a sizable chunk of the area will remain below
freezing through the daytime on Monday. Lows will likely be well
into the teens Tuesday morning north and east and single digit lows
aren`t out of the question if clouds are able to clear out behind
the precipitation shield as low level ridging fills in. Worst case,
there are a few GEFs ensemble members that keep SAT below freezing
from Saturday evening to Wednesday morning. For reference, the
longest SAT has ever been below freezing was 4 days 13 hours in late
Jan-Early Feb 1951. I believe we are unlikely to eclipse that but it
could become closer than any of us want, not even this native
Wisconsinite and cold/snow lover. [b]There are some hints in the models
that the cold could be short-lived (i.e. 12Z ECMWF brings many spots
back into the 50s by Wednesday) but currently that is unsupported by
ensemble data.

&&[/b]

I think the Euro has lost it's crown???? Down goes the Euro, down goes the Euro down goes the Euro!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Do you think it will be too hazardous to get to San Antonio from SE Louisiana? Have a hotel booked for the week. And we were planning to leave Monday morning at 6 a.m.

That commute will likely be a mess along IH-10 from Lafayette to San Antonio. We're probably going to be seeing some type of frozen precipitation on Monday across much of Texas and western Louisiana.

Where does the Weather Channel get their info? They're showing a 70% chance of between 1-3" of snow for Houston.

Basically every model is showing something like this.

[WacoWx]

After reading the FW NWS forecast discussion, it sounds like DFW could be in for a legit ice storm tonight. Any short term hi res models showing this? Its 32.5 imby near the High 5 in Dallas. Never got above 33.

[Iceresistance]

EWX discussion

000
FXUS64 KEWX 102016
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
216 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021


Operational ECMWF has now come in much colder Monday into Tuesday,
more in line with the GFS although still a touch warmer. Although
it`s associated ensemble mean is a touch warmer still, confidence is
moderate to high that a sizable chunk of the area will remain below
freezing through the daytime on Monday. Lows will likely be well
into the teens Tuesday morning north and east and single digit lows
aren`t out of the question if clouds are able to clear out behind
the precipitation shield as low level ridging fills in. Worst case,
there are a few GEFs ensemble members that keep SAT below freezing
from Saturday evening to Wednesday morning. For reference, the
longest SAT has ever been below freezing was 4 days 13 hours in late
Jan-Early Feb 1951. I believe we are unlikely to eclipse that but it
could become closer than any of us want, not even this native
Wisconsinite and cold/snow lover. [b]There are some hints in the models
that the cold could be short-lived (i.e. 12Z ECMWF brings many spots
back into the 50s by Wednesday) but currently that is unsupported by
ensemble data.

&&[/b]

I think the Euro has lost it's crown???? Down goes the Euro, down goes the Euro down goes the Euro!

The GFS is going to be the Winner at this rate!

(What if the Storms show up like the 12z GFS is saying?)

[Ntxw]

EWX discussion

I think the Euro has lost it's crown???? Down goes the Euro, down goes the Euro down goes the Euro!

The GFS is going to be the Winner at this rate!

(What if the Storms show up like the 12z GFS is saying?)

Just for this event the Euro has not been reliable. You will still want it on your side to build a strong consensus however to increase confidence. Several models wavered after the Euro did but the GFS held its ground for the most part, at first with the 500mb set up and then hanging on to the air mass while the others said that the Pacific SW flow would cut it off. In fairness, recent history we've had it fail and slide away. But this is not your typical Arctic Outbreak.

[Parker_County1]

Maybe we winter weather enthusiasts should have been careful what we wished for!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The GFS is going to be the Winner at this rate!

(What if the Storms show up like the 12z GFS is saying?)

Just for this event the Euro has not been reliable. You will still want it on your side to build a strong consensus however to increase confidence. Several models wavered after the Euro did but the GFS held its ground for the most part, at first with the 500mb set up and then hanging on to the air mass while the others said that the Pacific SW flow would cut it off. In fairness recent history we know it often has not been able to make it. But this is not your typical Arctic Outbreak.

Euro 500mb setup is what im paying attention to most. Not the temps. I am curious what it says as we move closer, but i dont trust the temps.

That said, i dont 100% trust the GFS, but there is a case to be made for all of the crazy temps it continues to post.

BRB, gone for a run to work off all of this off!

[Cerlin]

Hey IceResistance...

[Iceresistance]

https://i.ibb.co/82nT33k/7-D61-D405-E7-AB-4396-8-F7-F-1-AC85-BD27655.jpg
Hey IceResistance...

KOCO 5 is going CRAZY!

[Ntxw]

https://i.ibb.co/82nT33k/7-D61-D405-E7-AB-4396-8-F7-F-1-AC85-BD27655.jpg
Hey IceResistance...

There isn't a ton of qpf for those kind of totals typically however the air mass is just so dang cold. That 0.5 to 1" yields 10-15+ inches is pretty good. Just to see how incredibly cold it is.

[bubba hotep]

After reading the FW NWS forecast discussion, it sounds like DFW could be in for a legit ice storm tonight. Any short term hi res models showing this? Its 32.5 imby near the High 5 in Dallas. Never got above 33.

I thought they might upgrade Dallas & Collin to warning. The threshold is 0.25" but the seriousness of freezing rain can't be overstated. I think a lot of people might discount the risk based on there only being an advisory issued.

[Iceresistance]

18z Models have started, will they keep going like at 12z?

[Ntxw]

18z Models have started, will they keep going like at 12z?

Yes. Blizzard again on the ICON and snowing in the single digits. 10:1 ratio maps don't tell the whole story, it's a doozy.

[gpsnowman]

Steve McCauley has an update and I like it. Always subtle and cryptic when he is short on time and then releases pure meteorological truth when winter weather is a guarantee. Giddy up folks!!!

[DeltaV]

First post, but I've been lurking these threads for years. I can still hardly believe that we're finally getting a taste of winter in DFW. More like a 5 course meal at this point really.

Welcome DeltaV!! What city are you in? It is always nice to know where someone lives when taliking about specifics. You will love it here.

Situated in N. Plano, just waiting for the big show to kick off.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like temps have peaked for the day. Briefly touched 33 here in Dallas, back down to 32.

[Texas Snow]

First post, but I've been lurking these threads for years. I can still hardly believe that we're finally getting a taste of winter in DFW. More like a 5 course meal at this point really.

Welcome DeltaV!! What city are you in? It is always nice to know where someone lives when taliking about specifics. You will love it here.

Situated in N. Plano, just waiting for the big show to kick off.

If you update your profile then if/when you post weather observations at your casa or ask questions for your area then folks will know where you are to help. Just a suggestion though, some may not want that out there which is fine.

[ColdFusion]

Some light returns starting to appear on radar headed towards DFW, no idea if its making it to the ground tho


instagram photo full size download

[Iceresistance]

Severe Temperature Bust

Forecasted to be 25°F

Got up to only 20°F