Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have a glaze of ice starting to develop outside now.

[Weatherdude20]

I have a glaze of ice starting to develop outside now.

Already?

[srainhoutx]

I have a glaze of ice starting to develop outside now.

Looks like a long duration event EWG. The storm has no real kicker yet so stay safe and be careful.

[msstateguy83]

i just heard per koco out of okc reports of ice even forming as far south as the noble area now which is just south of norman about 10-15 mins... so ice is becoming a prob very quickly up there

[msstateguy83]

srainhoutx what do you think about w.falls area? you think oun will be right temps hover above frzing or keep droping here? i have been falling quite steady 35 @ a weatherbug site in town now 33 @ my house... i have a feeling they might just move that wsw more southward later per the temps dropping fast....

[Weatherdude20]

Ice forming on E1190 Road on the west side of 183 near Cordell.

[srainhoutx]

srainhoutx what do you think about w.falls area? you think oun will be right temps hover above frzing or keep droping here? i have been falling quite steady 35 @ a weatherbug site in town now 33 @ my house... i have a feeling they might just move that wsw more southward later per the temps dropping fast....

Going to be close in the Falls area. Warm inflow just above the surface will help keep things liquid right now IMHO.

[slowpoke]

as of 745am there was ice forming on the south side of okc near moore area. we have an electric gate but have the chain removed due to the weather and i could barely get theg ate open due to ice forming on it already.

[msstateguy83]

heavy ice starting to pile up in sw ok in greer county, i have heard reports & just got one myself and i dont know if
it goes along with the ice or what i suspect so but about 5 mesonet sites are not reporting could it be the sensors
lost power??

[BlueIce]

Now down to 28 here on the east side, Ice is forming on all elevated surfaces, Precip looks to be expanding for the metro area. Local reports are now confirming the report from MsState, Ice is stopping the measuring equipment currently

[msstateguy83]

reports from I-44 in comanche county of wrecks due to ice @ mile marker 50.. (just north of lawton)

[msstateguy83]

i have not had time to look in detail but it appears with the system moving so slow we could be looking at a frz rain event over ok into nw tx till almost midnight tonight before a change over to snow.. that is subject to change BUT attm with the slow progression of this system it appears a very prolonged event of frz rain.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Seeing a few small icicles forming on the sides of rooftops and stair railings right now. Hard to believe we could see 12+ hours more of freezing rain across the area.

[msstateguy83]

iam gonna check out upper level temps in just a few on the latest data see how it looks.. just need to pray the column can
cool quickly enough that we atleast transition to ip, the sooner the better otherwise this could be one big disastrous ice storm
in the making.

[msstateguy83]

just checked ok meso again and we have temps in the low to middle 30s moving into sern oklahoma now so this front is still moving @ a pretty good pace... 33 in ada... 38 in atoka...
36 in mcalester... back to the west 20s are moving into the western sides of the metro

[random_in_okc]

currently ice is falling in SW okc near airport.

[wxman57]

srainhoutx what do you think about w.falls area? you think oun will be right temps hover above frzing or keep droping here? i have been falling quite steady 35 @ a weatherbug site in town now 33 @ my house... i have a feeling they might just move that wsw more southward later per the temps dropping fast....

I took a look at the latest RUC soundings for Wichita Falls. The model indicates slow cooling at the surface, down to near freezing by 6pm. Note the VERY warm air just above the surface today. The profile indicates cold rain, with some freezing rain on elevated surfaces. But surface temps should be up enough to prevent significant accumulations on roadways. Bridges could have an issue this evening:

Wichita falls 12Z RUC Sounding:


Sounding forecast for 18Z


Sounding forecast for 00Z

[BlueIce]

Check out the MCS that may be moving towards Oklahoma. Talk about heavy precip.

[srainhoutx]

Just FYI: Centerpoint Energy is enroute from Houston with a convoy to assit those in OK.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is my latest idea on possible ice accumulations across the area..



This assumes that freezing rain remains the main precipitation type for central Oklahoma through the first half of the afternoon. If that does indeed happen, which is looking more likely, then the large area of 0.75"+ icing totals seems quite likely, with some locations likely topping 1".

And here is my latest idea on possible snow/sleet accumulations..

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

UPDATE >> There are now indications that we might try to changeover to sleet in a few areas more quickly than first thought. If this occurs, then I will need to reduce freezing rain amounts and increase sleet/snow amounts in a few areas, particularly from OKC westward. Stay tuned!

UPDATE #2 >> Latest models hint at the potential for more snow tomorrow in central Oklahoma. If this trend continues, then it is likely that I would need to expand and shift some of the higher snow totals toward the south and east.