Texas Winter 2010-2011

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The 12Z GFS also suggests a storm taking shape to our SW/W in the 240 hour time frame. With all the cold air in place via the GFS at that time, wintry weather breaks out and spreads across the Lone Star State.

Saw that, the fly on my wall here saw me smile too

[Ntxw]

Woo as I said before, I'll be amazed if we don't get wintry precip out of a prolonged set up like this. However, all of this is still beyond 7 days...so I would take the side of caution first despite such strong signals. This looks like a blue norther on steroids directly north to south.

JB says the center of the nation will be the target of the arctic attack.

[Portastorm]

(Portastorm is now rummaging through his messy hall closet ... trying to find his cleats. He is also making sure he still has Lucy's number)



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[Tireman4]

(Portastorm is now rummaging through his messy hall closet ... trying to find his cleats. He is also making sure he still has Lucy's number)



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Go Porta Go. This time you will kick the darn thing!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

(Portastorm is now rummaging through his messy hall closet ... trying to find his cleats. He is also making sure he still has Lucy's number)



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Heck, that big blue glob is just due west of me!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Woo as I said before, I'll be amazed if we don't get wintry precip out of a prolonged set up like this. However, all of this is still beyond 7 days...so I would take the side of caution first despite such strong signals. This looks like a blue norther on steroids directly north to south.

JB says the center of the nation will be the target of the arctic attack.

Like the ol' saying goes. Nothing but a barbed wire fence between the Dakotas/Montana and Texas when it comes to major Arctic attacks.

[srainhoutx]

(Portastorm is now rummaging through his messy hall closet ... trying to find his cleats. He is also making sure he still has Lucy's number)

[HockeyTx82]

Ft. Worth NWS is talking about it. Check out the front page.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=fwd&gc=5

[Snowman67]

How did the 12Z run of the GFS compare to the 00Z run? I haven't had a chance to compare yet. Thanks.

[HockeyTx82]

FT. WORTH NWS
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST MON JAN 3 2011/

/AND NOW A DISSERTATION ON A LIKELY COLD SPELL NEXT WEEK/

ALL THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN LATITUDES...WITH BLOCKED
UPPER FLOW SETTING UP AND PERSISTING ACROSS CANADA. MODELS FORECAST
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW OVER WESTERN CANADA TO BREAK DOWN AND BE
REPLACED BY A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS
OCCURS...SURFACE TEMPS COOL AND PRESSURES GRADUALLY RISE. IN SHORT
THIS MEANS WESTERN CANADA WILL BE THE GENESIS REGION OF THE COLD
AIR MASS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN 7 TO 8 DAYS.

THE ASTUTE OBSERVER WOULD NOTICE TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND
ALASKA ARE NOT THAT COLD NOW. I KNOW IT IS A HABIT FOR MANY OF US
TO THROW A MAP OF SURFACE TEMPS UP AND TRY TO SEE WHERE THE COLD
AIR IS AND WHERE IT IS COMING FROM. BUT THIS IS SORT OF A RULE OF
THUMB AND IS PARTIALLY FLAWED THINKING FOR A COUPLE REASON. FIRST
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE IS NOT A CONSERVED QUANTITY...IT DEVELOPS
AND IS ALSO DESTROYED BY COMPLEX DYNAMIC MOTIONS ALOFT. THE SECOND
REASON IS AN ANALYSIS OF WHERE OUR PAST BIG ARCTIC OUTBREAKS
ORIGINATE USING BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES SHOWS US THAT THE NORTH POLE
REGION IS PREFERRED...BUT OUR SURFACE PARCELS HERE ACTUALLY
ORIGINATE AT LEVELS BETWEEN 500MB-700MB. THUS AN ANALYSIS OF
500MB-700MB TEMPS AND ANOMALIES IN THE NORTHERN LATITUDES CAN GIVE
US A GOOD PROXY TO COMPARE AND JUDGE THE STRENGTH OF FUTURE ARCTIC
EPISODES. THESE CURRENT MID-UPPER LEVEL TEMPS ARE CHILLY...BUT NOT
TOO UNUSUAL. SO THE FRONT THAT ARRIVES IN A WEEK MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING...AT LEAST NOT INITIALLY.

WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THE FORECAST UPPER PATTERN IS THAT BY
7-10 DAYS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER ALASKA...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN CANADA. THESE POLAR LOWS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAKS WHEN THEY MOVE SOUTH...AND THAT IS WHAT THE GFS
HAS BEEN FORECASTING TO OCCUR IN THE 10-15 DAY TIME RANGE. WHETHER
THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. REGARDLESS...THE BLOCKING
UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP A PROLONGED FETCH OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR
COMING INTO THE REGION FOR THE 2ND WEEK OF JANUARY. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHETHER ANY MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...BUT NONETHELESS ITS
SHAPING UP TO BE AN INTERESTING WEEK WEATHER-WISE.

TR.92

[Snowman67]

Frozen precip starting to show up in the Houston 8-16 meteogram forecast. Let's keep our fingers crossed!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/iahgfsb.png

[vbhoutex]

Portatstorm I have talked with Lucy. She says she is going to be very busy that week, but be sure to have your cleats cleaned and ready as she is coming to your house first and PROMISES not to move the ball.

[Portastorm]

Portatstorm I have talked with Lucy. She says she is going to be very busy that week, but be sure to have your cleats cleaned and ready as she is coming to your house first and PROMISES not to move the ball.

This sounds strangely familiar to me ... hmm ...

[Tireman4]

Portatstorm I have talked with Lucy. She says she is going to be very busy that week, but be sure to have your cleats cleaned and ready as she is coming to your house first and PROMISES not to move the ball.

This sounds strangely familiar to me ... hmm ...

She is such a temptress....LOL

[TeamPlayersBlue]

A local met just wrote me and confirmed that it will be some of the coldest air in Decades, also, that an ice storm looks very likely

[WacoWx]

Local to where?

[Tireman4]

A local met just wrote me and confirmed that it will be some of the coldest air in Decades, also, that an ice storm looks very likely

Where are you in Texas, TeamPlayersBlue?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

A local met just wrote me and confirmed that it will be some of the coldest air in Decades, also, that an ice storm looks very likely

Where are you in Texas, TeamPlayersBlue?

My apologies, i thought my location was showing. Local to Houston. I live in Sugar Land

[Tireman4]

A local met just wrote me and confirmed that it will be some of the coldest air in Decades, also, that an ice storm looks very likely

Where are you in Texas, TeamPlayersBlue?

My apologies, i thought my location was showing. Local to Houston. I live in Sugar Land

Wow....interesting. Where is Wxman 57? Wonder what he has to say?

[txagwxman]

ECMWF has a 1070 mb high in Western Canada with a full plunge into Texas...12F Dallas next Wed.