SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

Winter Weather Discussion

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windnrain
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Re:

#441 Postby windnrain » Tue Jan 28, 2014 6:18 am

BigB0882 wrote:According to 0z GFS output BTR gets .33 QPF. That is up about .10 from 18z run. Happy for that.

Can you get snow with 850s at 2 above freezing? Just curious as the 850 temps are very close on GFS but still above freezing for the higher QPF amount. Is it absolutely necessary to be 0 or below or is there a little wiggle room there?


GFS for BTR is up to .36. Trending in the positive direction.

ALL above freezing at 850 mb though - for people more experienced than I am in reading real time info, how is that warm nose actually panning out?

Looks like it may be a really, really bad freezing rain event for us.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KBTR
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Stormnut
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#442 Postby Stormnut » Tue Jan 28, 2014 7:31 am

I'm getting really tired of this warm nose... Can't a fella just get some dang snow
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PTrackerLA
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

#443 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jan 28, 2014 7:40 am

06z GFS has increased QPF to .44" for my area, has been rising for the last 24 hours. I'm afraid we could be getting close to an ice storm/power outage situation but models continue to insist we get at least 1" of snow at the end of the event. Going to be a fun day!
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Jagno
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

#444 Postby Jagno » Tue Jan 28, 2014 7:43 am

Just stepped outside and we haven't had the first droplet of rain, sleet or any moisture. It's 30º, calm winds and just :cold:
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#445 Postby southerngale » Tue Jan 28, 2014 7:54 am

27° here with pretty heavy sleet

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#446 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:08 am

Precip should be here any minute. Looks great on radar. I hope it doesn't move too fast so we get a nice long event.
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#447 Postby windnrain » Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:10 am

BigB, definitely looking great on Radar. The fact that it extends so far west should give us significant training/more moisture.
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

#448 Postby Stormnut » Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:12 am

Still mostly virga for us the next hour or two I believe

Edit: maybe not. Very dark clouds coming into view off my balcony to the west
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

#449 Postby Jagno » Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:21 am

LOL, our NWS forecast has 27º-Unknown Precip

Well, we don't know it either because it's not precipitating at this time. :ggreen:

We did get bumped up to 90% precip though.

Edited to add: It just started raining/sleeting. 7:32a.m.
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#450 Postby Stormnut » Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:55 am

Here ya go Baton Rouge fellas: from NWS
A LOOK AT THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWS A WARM LAYER FROM 1800
FEET TO 10K FEET PEAKING AT 9C. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE EARLY
ONSET ON PRECIPITATION. WITH PW VALUES AT 0.81... THERE IS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. AREAS WHERE THE WARM NOSE IN THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE CONTINUES WILL EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. WITH TIME... THE PROFILE WILL BECOME BELOW FREEZING FROM
THE NORTHERN PARISHES SOUTH...THUS A CONVERSION TO SNOW WILL
OCCUR GRADUALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT. NORTH WINDS OF 20KT
INDICATES ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

#451 Postby windnrain » Tue Jan 28, 2014 9:02 am

I was outside earlier and yeah, it actually got pretty windy, so I can easily see cold air advection happening sooner rather than later. Not much precip yet, only light rain here in BR. It's clearly coming though.
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

#452 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jan 28, 2014 9:29 am

Temp down to 27 and precip hasn't even set in yet :eek: . Dewpoint is still 22 I can't even imagine what things will turn into with freezing rain and 25 degrees or so. Never recall it being this cold with freezing rain here. The largest ice storm I've experience was 1997 and I think temps hovered around 30 the whole time. Lost power for over a day.
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#453 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Jan 28, 2014 9:35 am

WBRZ has the worst future cast. They show our precip being ended by noon today with just a little bit passing back over around 2 and then at 4. LOL! If that happens I will be run around the street butt naked.
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Re:

#454 Postby Kennethb » Tue Jan 28, 2014 9:38 am

BigB0882 wrote:WBRZ has the worst future cast. They show our precip being ended by noon today with just a little bit passing back over around 2 and then at 4. LOL! If that happens I will be run around the street butt naked.


That should be interesting. Maybe you will make WBRZ news!!!
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#455 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jan 28, 2014 9:51 am

Just had a decent sleet shower move through here already accumulating in grassy areas and even some on the pavement.
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

#456 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 28, 2014 9:58 am

windnrain wrote:I was outside earlier and yeah, it actually got pretty windy, so I can easily see cold air advection happening sooner rather than later. Not much precip yet, only light rain here in BR. It's clearly coming though.


Hang in there. I think eventually the changeover to sleet and then snow will filter into Baton Rouge probably by early to mid afternoon.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Jan 28, 2014 10:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

#457 Postby JSDS » Tue Jan 28, 2014 10:00 am

No precipitation yet in south Denham Springs. It is quite windy and 28 degrees at my house, and has been below freezing long enough for the bird bath to be covered in a thin layer of ice. I hope my birds and squirrels appreciate the fact that I went out in this frigid weather and filled their feeders!!
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#458 Postby Stormnut » Tue Jan 28, 2014 10:24 am

If you look at a radar, the precip is moving SW-NE but the overall shield is moving south fairly quickly. If we don't get rid of the virga soon Baton Rouge may only have a couple hours of actual precip
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Re: SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

#459 Postby Stormnut » Tue Jan 28, 2014 10:28 am

Haha
Heavy sleet now on Siegen in baton rouge
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Re:

#460 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Jan 28, 2014 10:33 am

Stormnut wrote:If you look at a radar, the precip is moving SW-NE but the overall shield is moving south fairly quickly. If we don't get rid of the virga soon Baton Rouge may only have a couple hours of actual precip


I don't think so. It has a long way to travel from out West of us. We will see.
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