Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Stormcenter]

Way too early to lock into anything. I'm sure this will change many more times. IMO

[Lagreeneyes03]

Here's one showing 24hr snowfall across Texas in 0.2" increments from 9pm Monday to 9pm Tuesday. No snow for SE TX, maybe an inch up in Dallas-Ft. Worth (according to this run of the EC).

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Euro3.JPG

What's with the tiny "warm nose" right through the center of the DFW Metroplex? Go 30 miles either direction and it's more snow. Heat Island effect?

[dhweather]

12Z Euro precip type. This is unattractive.

[PTrackerLA]

Amazing that within 24 hours our progged low temps for next week are now 10-15 degrees higher and the chance of frozen precipitation seems all but gone. Whatever, time for spring and the trees are already starting to bloom.

[Stormcenter]

It's no differnt than the models showing a Cat 5 striking N.O. one run and then Pensacola the next run....don't laugh it's happened before.

Sometimes (maybe most of the times) they are for entertainment purpose only. IMO

Amazing that within 24 hours our progged low temps for next week are now 10-15 degrees higher and the chance of frozen precipitation seems all but gone. Whatever, time for spring and the trees are already starting to bloom.

[Portastorm]

It's no differnt than the models showing a Cat 5 striking N.O. one run and then Pensacola the next run....don't laugh it's happened before.

Sometimes (maybe most of the times) they are for entertainment purpose only. IMO

Amazing that within 24 hours our progged low temps for next week are now 10-15 degrees higher and the chance of frozen precipitation seems all but gone. Whatever, time for spring and the trees are already starting to bloom.

Computer weather models are tools. Like any other tool, an educated practitioner uses that particular tool to complete a task. We don't look at a hammer and expect it to build a fence all by itself. Nor should we look at a computer model run and expect it to produce an accurate forecast. The best forecasters use a variety of tools for their work.

[dhweather]

Computer weather models are tools. Like any other tool, an educated practitioner uses that particular tool to complete a task. We don't look at a hammer and expect it to build a fence all by itself. Nor should we look at a computer model run and expect it to produce an accurate forecast. The best forecasters use a variety of tools for their work.

Exactly. There are numerous models, all offering varying solutions. Just like bookies in Vegas handicapping football games, multiple factors come into play, and rarely are they 100% right.

Yes, I just compared weather forecasting to bookies.

[PTrackerLA]

It's no differnt than the models showing a Cat 5 striking N.O. one run and then Pensacola the next run....don't laugh it's happened before.

Sometimes (maybe most of the times) they are for entertainment purpose only. IMO

Amazing that within 24 hours our progged low temps for next week are now 10-15 degrees higher and the chance of frozen precipitation seems all but gone. Whatever, time for spring and the trees are already starting to bloom.

Computer weather models are tools. Like any other tool, an educated practitioner uses that particular tool to complete a task. We don't look at a hammer and expect it to build a fence all by itself. Nor should we look at a computer model run and expect it to produce an accurate forecast. The best forecasters use a variety of tools for their work.

Understood but we are talking medium range model guidance not a 10-14 day forecast.... of a cat 5 striking New Orleans . I think in general the models have just really struggled with the pattern this winter.

[weatherdude1108]

Computer weather models are tools. Like any other tool, an educated practitioner uses that particular tool to complete a task. We don't look at a hammer and expect it to build a fence all by itself. Nor should we look at a computer model run and expect it to produce an accurate forecast. The best forecasters use a variety of tools for their work.

Exactly. There are numerous models, all offering varying solutions. Just like bookies in Vegas handicapping football games, multiple factors come into play, and rarely are they 100% right.

Yes, I just compared weather forecasting to bookies.

Whatever analogy gets the point across. I like this one!

But Lucy takes the cake, or football...sometimes!

[wxman57]

Canadian agrees with the Euro - low-mid 20s for lows in D-FW Wed and no freeze Thursday. Upper 20s for Houston area Wednesday. No snow except in the TX Panhandle in the 12Z Canadian.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Crazy how back and forth the models can be. 4" of snow yesterday for my area and not a flake today...

[dhweather]

Back to my persistent, never ending Lucy......

[gboudx]

Yeah, still need copious rain in the worst way.

The orientation of that drought map from Wichita Falls to DFW could use multiple NW to SE moving springtime MCS clusters.

[ronyan]

The 12z Euro drives a fairly weak high straight into MX with NNW flow over SE TX Wednesday morning. Don't have surface maps but the anomalies at 850mb are pretty significant. -12 to -16C or 21-28F below normal.

[Tcu101]

That is one UGLY drought map for the largest Metro area in the State

[Tcu101]

BLAH BLAH

NWS FW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 PM CST THU FEB 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERVIEW: GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE 500MB UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN LAG ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND.
ALSO BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT SENT SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION TO KEEP US BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME. THE WINDOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SMALL..

[Texas Snowman]

Computer weather models are tools. Like any other tool, an educated practitioner uses that particular tool to complete a task. We don't look at a hammer and expect it to build a fence all by itself. Nor should we look at a computer model run and expect it to produce an accurate forecast. The best forecasters use a variety of tools for their work.

Case in point, see Ntxw's post yesterday about the biggest snowstorm in DFW history - and one of the biggest snowfall forecast busts too - that occurred five years ago yesterday.

From what I can recall, Fort Worth NWS - and others, including a few on this thread - rode a model forecast of little to nothing all the way up to the storm's genesis. Even during the height of the epic 12+ inch snowfall event in DFW, Fort Worth NWS continued to peer into their computer monitors and issue accumulation amounts that had ALREADY been exceeded. By the time the storm was over, with all due respect to them and to a number of other professional mets in the region, there was egg all over their face after striking out big time. Instead of a measly little event, it was an all-time 24-hour snowfall record that never was correctly forecast until the last flake had fallen.

And if my memory is correct, a similar thing happened in the Valentine's Day snowstorm a decade ago that prompted sudden "Heavy Snow Warnings" in DFW as the event unfolded and beat model prognostications into the ground. And to some degree, the same thing occurred with the Christmas Eve 2009 blizzard in the Red River Valley and Oklahoma. That one severely beat out the forecasts that were being put out there right up to the event occurring (wherever you are, isn't that right Mississippi Weather Guy? ).

For a number of reasons, I'm convinced the cold is coming next week. And it appears to me it may be one of the strongest arctic air masses of the season, especially in light of how poorly the models handled the magnitude of the cold fronts last week (two days in the 30s). Whether or not any appreciable snow/ice event is coming next week, we'll see.

But keep in mind with every model run, the one you want and the one that you don't, nothing is etched in stone. If you trust the models this winter, you might be surprised. One way or the other.

[wxman57]

Anomalies are only compared to normal for that date, and norms are steadily rising in February. 850mb temps are cold on Wednesday morning (12Z Euro) but warm very significantly during the day on Wednesday:

I plotted 850mb temps in 2C increments starting at 0C (freezing). Sub-freezing air at 850mb (5000 ft up) shoots out into the Gulf Wednesday morning but retreats back northward just as quickly during the day. By Thursday morning (2nd graphic below) the cold air is gone.

[Texas Snowman]

BLAH BLAH

NWS FW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 PM CST THU FEB 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERVIEW: GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE 500MB UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN LAG ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND.
ALSO BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT SENT SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION TO KEEP US BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME. THE WINDOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SMALL..

Typical. And just 24 hours, they were beating the drums that winter was coming, winter was coming.

Considering how POORLY Fort Worth NWS handled the cold air last week on two different occasions w/in a couple of days of each front, forgive me if I don't trust what they are saying right now, one way or the other.

[Brent]

BLAH BLAH

NWS FW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 PM CST THU FEB 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERVIEW: GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE 500MB UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN LAG ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND.
ALSO BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT SENT SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION TO KEEP US BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME. THE WINDOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SMALL..

Typical. And just 24 hours, they were beating the drums that winter was coming, winter was coming.

Considering how POORLY Fort Worth NWS handled the cold air last week on two different occasions w/in a couple of days of each front, forgive me if I don't trust what they are saying right now, one way or the other.

I'm pretty conflicted tbh... on the one hand this winter has been so terrible for winter lovers so this storm could just follow that trend... at the other side... the storm in general seems to be trending south which is not a bad trend at all. But I'm also not convinced it won't just shift back north, we've seen that with every storm this year.