Texas Winter 2013-2014

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Does it not look like areas north of Houston will get anything?

Yes, Montgomery County is square in the bullseye for Freezing Rain and Sleet with a chance of changeover to Snow.

[HouTXmetro]

What Possessed the EURO and made it go crazy? It went from relatively Dry to WTF!!!! How does The Euro perform/tendencies 1/2 days out from snow event vs other models i.e. accuracy, over does precip, too cold?

[ronyan]

18z GFS has a darker green "area" of precip right over my area for a few hours.

[Stormcenter]

Can we see some new model run graphics for those (like me) who don't have access to them? Many thanks in advance.

[weatherdude1108]

I'll be charging up my camera to get some shots of this Central Texas Winter Weather scenario, just in case!

[weatherdude1108]

This just popped up on my phone.


TXZ191>194-202>209-217>225-228-230630-

/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.A.0001.140124T0600Z-140124T1800Z/

HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-

GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-

KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...

GIDDINGS...BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...

NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...

CRYSTAL CITY...PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...

KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS

423 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT

THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A TRACE TO

ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW. SOUTHERN AREAS ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO

TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...ICY ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[perk]

PWC ISSUES GREY GOOSE WATCH

The Portastorm Weather Center today issued a Grey Goose Watch for much of the State of Texas to be in effect from 6 p.m. Thursday through 6 p.m. Friday. PWC meteorologists explained that a Grey Goose Watch means conditions are possible that the weather outside may be vodka-like cold with possible wintry precipitation.

“We anticipate that come Friday morning, areas of Texas from San Angelo to the southern outskirts of Dallas, down to Houston, back out west to Hondo, and up to San Angelo again … the entire area is likely to see their first winter storm since 2011,” said the lead PWC meteorologist. “Conditions look increasingly likely that we’ll see a mix of sleet and freezing rain in the southeastern half of that box and sleet and snow in the northwestern half. Precip amounts will be heavier the further south and east you go.”

Reporters questioned the PWC lead met about recent reports that a certain private-sector meteorologist in Houston had taken control of the weather. The PWC responded with: “That person … that Heat Miser … is on the run right now. He knows winter is coming to Texas and all of his meteograms won’t be able to stop it. Despite his forecasts of warmth and no winter weather to speak of, we know better. His time is up!”

The PWC lead met could not explain Heat Miser’s absence from the press conference, despite having a labeled chair set aside for him in the front row.

The lead met then turned things over to a staff meteorologist who went only by the name of “Ntxw.” This young met walked reporters through a impressive, lively, and information-packed Powerpoint show which supported the PWC’s latest forecast. Ntxw indicated that this is just the first of several potential winter weather events in Texas over the next few weeks. He reminded reporters: “Don’t forget the old PWC slogan of ‘you want snow, you got it!’ ”

PWC mets indicated that the current Watch status may be upgraded to Warning status as soon as late tonight/early tomorrow, depending on the latest computer model solutions and PWC weather intuition.

Port what can I say.Welcome back from the dark side.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

My prediction, now remember, i am not a professional met by any mean, is that we see more sleet and snow than anticipated. Mind you im a snow bird and we havent exactly seen how 'cold' this front is, i think we see more white stuff. Events in the past we started getting snow and sleet 5 hours before predicted and i think this wont be much different. Metro houston expected to change over at around midnight Thurs night, i think we switch over by 9pm. Just my guess. I'll adjust it if need be as we get closer

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well hope you guys get to see some real winter weather out of this. All we have for now is a hard freeze watch for tomorrow night with a 20% chance of rain/ snow showers. Hope to see some big changes tonight into tomorrow morning.

[BigB0882]

What is up with the 18z GFS? Hardly anything in central TX? It shows snow in southeast and south-central Louisiana before eventually showing up in SETX. That seems really odd. I thought this was all moving West to East.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensemble Means shows almost an inch of Snow for Austin/Mabry...Hope you get something Porta!

[davidiowx]

12zECMWF Ensemble Means shows almost an inch of Snow for Austin/Mabry...Hope you get something Porta!

What does it show for the Houston area?

[Tejas89]

FW has added flurries to DFW forecast Thursday night and Friday. hmmm... trend is our friend.

[Portastorm]

12zECMWF Ensemble Means shows almost an inch of Snow for Austin/Mabry...Hope you get something Porta!

Thanks Rgv20! That is very good news. There's a lot worse bets than banking on a Euro ensemble mean.

Here's hoping we both get in on the action! Next week as well looks like it may have more opportunities for many of us.

[TheProfessor]

FW has added flurries to DFW forecast Thursday night and Friday. hmmm... trend is our friend.

That's better than what was originally forecasted.

[TheProfessor]

12zECMWF Ensemble Means shows almost an inch of Snow for Austin/Mabry...Hope you get something Porta!

Thanks Rgv20! That is very good news. There's a lot worse bets than banking on a Euro ensemble mean.

Here's hoping we both get in on the action! Next week as well looks like it may have more opportunities for many of us.

Does next week look better for North Texas?

[weatherguy425]

Meanwhile, the frozen tundra (NW TEXAS) remains high, and dry. We need something more than dry northwesterly flow to get decent amounts of precipitation this far north. Single digit overnights without even a dusting is just sad. D.P.'s could tank to -10 by Friday morning!!

[ronyan]

Looking to next week, the GFS shows a 1048+ mb high entering Montana/South Dakota @ hr 132. The 850mb 0C line is off the coast by hr 156 but it looks like a dry cold on the 18z GFS. Still plenty of time for things to change on that.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensemble Means shows almost an inch of Snow for Austin/Mabry...Hope you get something Porta!

What does it show for the Houston area?

Checking the various station plots from the ECMWF Ensemble Means it shows 0.8 to almost 1''.

[TheProfessor]

Meanwhile, the frozen tundra (NW TEXAS) remains high, and dry. We need something more than dry northwesterly flow to get decent amounts of precipitation this far north. Single digit overnights without even a dusting is just sad. D.P.'s could tank to -10 by Friday morning!!

I know exactly how you feel, though not as cold, but extremely dry here too.