I don't think that there is any doubt that some cold air is coming. I don't know that it will be the coldest air of the season, but it could drop temps into the 20-deg range in the D-FW area on Wednesday morning (22F-25F a good bet). Lows in Houston could reach the mid 20s (SW & N) but will more likely be in the 27-28 range. Galveston could see near-freezing temps Wednesday morning.
I'm not seeing much moisture in the cold air, so I have my doubts that the D-FW area will see more than a dusting of light snow. Pretty low odds on seeing any snow in Houston. There's a chance D-FW could see another freeze Thursday morning, though all 3 major global models say no. Nothing extreme, that's for sure.
Texas Winter 2014-2015
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wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
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Texas Snowman
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Yeah, I was really impressed with those globals last week. Especially that day the high was in the lower 30s and a big fire was roaring in my fireplace. But maybe they'll be right this time. 
Last edited by Texas Snowman on Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Average lows are still in the 40s (47F here) this time of year. The duration of the cold could wind up being the limiting factor on any winter precip.
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Tcu101
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
wxman57 wrote:I don't think that there is any doubt that some cold air is coming. I don't know that it will be the coldest air of the season, but it could drop temps into the 20-deg range in the D-FW area on Wednesday morning (22F-25F a good bet). Lows in Houston could reach the mid 20s (SW & N) but will more likely be in the 27-28 range. Galveston could see near-freezing temps Wednesday morning.
I'm not seeing much moisture in the cold air, so I have my doubts that the D-FW area will see more than a dusting of light snow. Pretty low odds on seeing any snow in Houston. There's a chance D-FW could see another freeze Thursday morning, though all 3 major global models say no. Nothing extreme, that's for sure.
I agree, nothing extreme just your run of the mill cold snap... Guess its better than 70's and 80's
My goodness I bet the trees are wondering what in the world is going on ...To bud or not to bud..
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
Tireman4 wrote:Could this the first cold shot of many to come ...humm?
Absolutely, if you believe the 12z Euro ensembles, which show a broad-based trough over the central CONUS and below average temperatures through the end of February.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Ivanhater wrote:18Z GFS seems to be coming in even warmer...
Don't give the heat miser more ammo than he needs! We know 18z is the least reliable model suite right?
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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
ronyan wrote:Ivanhater wrote:18Z GFS seems to be coming in even warmer...
Don't give the heat miser more ammo than he needs! We know 18z is the least reliable model suite right?
Fact (supported by 5- and 6-day skill scores from NCEP): the 18z GFS is the least accurate of its four cycle runs.
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aggiecutter
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Shreveport AFD:
TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT. PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE ONCE
AGAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOLLOWED BY ALL SNOW AS THE VERY COLD AIR
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY END AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT. PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE ONCE
AGAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOLLOWED BY ALL SNOW AS THE VERY COLD AIR
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY END AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
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wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Ivanhater wrote:18Z GFS seems to be coming in even warmer...
That's an understatement...
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Wow.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDFW
Not even a freeze and 60s on Wednesday. What a disaster run. Better hope it's a fluke...
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDFW
Not even a freeze and 60s on Wednesday. What a disaster run. Better hope it's a fluke...
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Ralph's Weather
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Brent wrote:Wow.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDFW
Not even a freeze and 60s on Wednesday. What a disaster run. Better hope it's a fluke...
I would not put much of any stock in a 18Z run. The upper air pattern is cold for our area and it will be a couple days before we needlook post much attention to the surface depictions. Hopefully the surface trend goes back cold though ad it does not look good right now. I am still confident in cold and snow next Tuesday and maybe into Wednesday.
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Ivanhater
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
wxman57 wrote:Ivanhater wrote:18Z GFS seems to be coming in even warmer...
That's an understatement...
Dare I say the term blow torch? Nice and warm in Vegas for February and I love it!
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Ivanhater wrote:wxman57 wrote:Ivanhater wrote:18Z GFS seems to be coming in even warmer...
That's an understatement...
Dare I say the term blow torch? Nice and warm in Vegas for February and I love it!
Been having a blowtorch all month already.
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gboudx
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From Steve McCauley:
Although I have not been able to find the time to run the full SM on next week's event (takes 2 uninterrupted hours!), the "partial" SM continues to show rain starting Monday and then changing to snow Tuesday into Wednesday. So yes, Winter is coming back. February may be cashing in its snow chips! It doesn't look heavy, but at least it should be there.
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Yukon Cornelius
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
From Norman for my area of N. TX. Hopefully the accumulation part changes to offer a little more than light.
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
This is valid Monday Morning... already snow, it comes in around midnight Sunday Night... big change from what I've heard
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