Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi - The State ot Texas is going to be tested on so many levels, I hope gvt and EMA is ready. There will be little wind in west Texas while the core of the cold which may drive temperatures to 0 in Austin, single digits IAH/SAT teens valley hit after major snow/ice storm.

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@BigJoeBastardi - This is as close to the Feb 1899 outbreak as I have ever seen as that had a lot of snow also. 1983 and 1985. had less. This is by far the coldest this century. Humanitarian interests with immigration plus blackouts in extreme cold big concern, at least to me

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@BigJoeBastardi - I feel like its 5 days before Harvey, except in a winter event

Is he being serious or just trying to get attention/followers?

Not to get preachy here, but I think he's doing nothing more than we've all been doing on this board for several days now. Look at how the page count has gone up today alone, let alone over the last several days.

If some of this verifies, people will be shocked - SHOCKED - at how bitterly cold it is going to be early next week. I vividly remember the December 1983 sub-freezing cold snap up here along the Red River that ended just shy of 300 hours. Big Mineral arm on Lake Texoma froze over from one side to the other, smaller lakes had ice on them several inches thick, water mains and pipes broke all over Denison where I live, power was curtailed to all but essential businesses and homes, etc.

The potential severity of this multi-day event, let alone the potential effects on our local communities (power, travel, supplies) will be significant. Add in the humanitarian part that JB is talking about--I'm thinking about the many homeless in Dallas, Austin, etc.--and it could be a deadly siege of winter weather.

And this kind of cold will kill a lot of vegetation (I'm glad I don't have a St. Augustine lawn any longer) all the way to the Valley. The 1983 freeze all but wiped out the citrus industry in the RGV and killed uncountable numbers of redfish, speckled trout, etc. along the Gulf Coast. IMO, if these forecasts verify, this isn't just run of the mill winter weather fun, it's serious stuff.

[EnnisTx]

@BigJoeBastardi - The State ot Texas is going to be tested on so many levels, I hope gvt and EMA is ready. There will be little wind in west Texas while the core of the cold which may drive temperatures to 0 in Austin, single digits IAH/SAT teens valley hit after major snow/ice storm.

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - This is as close to the Feb 1899 outbreak as I have ever seen as that had a lot of snow also. 1983 and 1985. had less. This is by far the coldest this century. Humanitarian interests with immigration plus blackouts in extreme cold big concern, at least to me

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - I feel like its 5 days before Harvey, except in a winter event

Is he being serious or just trying to get attention/followers?

Very serious, no playing around here.

[wxman57]

Near 90 at the beach in Darwin today. I hear y’all may get a winter storm up there? Well, you’ve been wanting this. Going to have my butler fill up 6 Home Depot 5-gallon tubs of water on Sunday, as he’ll be shutting off water to the house and draining the pipes Sunday afternoon to maybe noon Tuesday. Will need water for cleaning and toilets. Won’t have to worry about food spoiling in the freezer, as we can just have him put the stuff outside.

Think I’ll go snorkeling tomorrow. Have fun with the cold.

Are you really shutting your water off?

Absolutely! If your pipes are in your attic and/or your faucet spigots are exposed, then you need to insulate them well. If they burst, you’ll have tens of thousands of dollars damage to your home.Letting them drip won’t help in this kind of cold. Prepare for widespread power outages if freezing rain is over 1/2 inch.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z gfs is a little less enthusiastic with the snow totals across ntx, but not by much. It also shows an interesting evolution before arriving. A little further south across the 4 corners region, a little stronger. I wonder if future runs may try to tilt this negative as it transits across the state, like Professor was talking about earlier, which would lead to some insane totals

[Ntxw]

Obviously they will have to clean this up a bit for consistency and due to overlapping periods makes for a Great DFW hole .

Heavy snow risk per 3-7 day hazards outlook from the WPC (national forecast).



Also just anecdotal it will probably get extended further southwest, just the highest confidence regarding thermals is to the north.

[Brent]

FWD saying 2-4 inches already but wow at some of this



The freezer door will then be propped open on Sunday as mid level
ridging amplifies over the Northwest U.S. and our polar low over
Southern Canada pivots eastward allowing a chunk of arctic air to
spread southward through the Plains. A 1050 mb high will surge
southward behind a strong cold front but ahead of a compact
shortwave ejecting out of the southwest U.S. This will set the
stage for some exceptionally cold air to spread into North Texas
over the latter half of the weekend into early next week. We're
becoming increasingly concerned for a prolonged cold spell with
actual air temperatures falling into the single digits to near 0
across parts of the region by Monday. While the GFS is currently
the coldest guidance, other global guidance and ensemble members
indicate 850 mb temps falling into the -12 to -17 degree range
which would be in the coldest 10% of temperatures in our observed
sounding data. In addition, a pool of moisture will reside across
much of East Texas and should quickly surge northwestward into the
region as strong forcing overspreads North Texas late Sunday into
Monday. With column temperatures as cold as currently forecast,
widespread moderate to heavy snow would be expected to develop as
the shortwave spreads across the Southern Plains. The current
forecast will reflect these trends with all snow by late Sunday
night and continuing into Monday. While it's a little early to pin
down exact accumulations, as of now, it appears that widespread
snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible over a large
area of the region. Column temperatures would be cold enough to
support higher snowfall ratios than we typically see which could
result in significantly heaftier snow totals. North winds 15 to 25
mph could also result in significant reductions to visibility
during the snow. This will be a fast moving system, but definitely
has the potential for significant impacts to travel and
infrastructure across the region. Extremely cold weather will
continue into the middle of next week.

It should be stressed that this bout of extreme cold may have
significant impact to infrastructure over the latter part of the
weekend into early next week. Exposed pipes are likely to burst in
the prolonged cold. Preparations should be made now to protect
exposed pipes or other infrastructure sensitive to the cold. Plans
should be made for pets and people.

While significant snow is forecast for Monday, the extreme cold
and wind will make travel dangerous and snow clearing operations
much more difficult. The snowpack is likely to linger and become
compacted further complicating the clearing efforts.

[Ralph's Weather]

The agricultural impacts could be massive after all is said and done.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

@BigJoeBastardi - The State ot Texas is going to be tested on so many levels, I hope gvt and EMA is ready. There will be little wind in west Texas while the core of the cold which may drive temperatures to 0 in Austin, single digits IAH/SAT teens valley hit after major snow/ice storm.

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - This is as close to the Feb 1899 outbreak as I have ever seen as that had a lot of snow also. 1983 and 1985. had less. This is by far the coldest this century. Humanitarian interests with immigration plus blackouts in extreme cold big concern, at least to me

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - I feel like its 5 days before Harvey, except in a winter event

Is he being serious or just trying to get attention/followers?

If you look at the GFS numbers above, the temp in Austin is not too far from what he is suggesting. As for the Harvey comparison, I think he's just using that as metaphor because he did see the possibility of the Texas coast getting whacked pretty hard while some of the local TV Mets where thinking just a Cat 1 at the worse. Many folks down here had never gone through a major event like Harvey and the same could be said for what could be a historic cold event. Some who even lived through the events in the 1980's have forgotten about them and go along with the crowd who says it "never gets that cold down here if cold at all." Those are the people who might be trying to dry out there property next week. Yea he goes overboard at times, but he has a lot of friends in Texas (especially in the RGV where he cut his teeth with Accu Weather down there) so there is probably some general concern on a personal level

[Texas Snow]

Not to get preachy here, but I think he's doing nothing more than we've all been doing on this board for several days now. Look at how the page count has gone up today alone, let alone over the last several days.

If some of this verifies, people will be shocked - SHOCKED - at how bitterly cold it is going to be early next week. I vividly remember the December 1983 sub-freezing cold snap up here along the Red River that ended just shy of 300 hours. Big Mineral arm on Lake Texoma froze over from one side to the other, smaller lakes had ice on them several inches thick, water mains and pipes broke all over Denison where I live, power was curtailed to all but essential businesses and homes, etc.

The potential severity of this multi-day event, let alone the potential effects on our local communities (power, travel, supplies) will be significant. Add in the humanitarian part that JB is talking about--I'm thinking about the many homeless in Dallas, Austin, etc.--and it could be a deadly siege of winter weather.

And this kind of cold will kill a lot of vegetation (I'm glad I don't have a St. Augustine lawn any longer) all the way to the Valley. The 1983 freeze all but wiped out the citrus industry in the RGV and killed uncountable numbers of redfish, speckled trout, etc. along the Gulf Coast. IMO, if these forecasts verify, this isn't just run of the mill winter weather fun, it's serious stuff.

Wait, what about St Augustine? Oh No. We have taken precautions for every other outdoor plant/tree (including heat lamps and even heaters) but not much I can do about the lawn other than hope for a foot of insulating snow.

[Ralph's Weather]

Our school has a scheduled 4 day weekend but it could turn into a week long closure with multiple rounds of snow next week. Add in a chance of closures tomorrow.

[EnnisTx]

Near 90 at the beach in Darwin today. I hear y’all may get a winter storm up there? Well, you’ve been wanting this. Going to have my butler fill up 6 Home Depot 5-gallon tubs of water on Sunday, as he’ll be shutting off water to the house and draining the pipes Sunday afternoon to maybe noon Tuesday. Will need water for cleaning and toilets. Won’t have to worry about food spoiling in the freezer, as we can just have him put the stuff outside.

Think I’ll go snorkeling tomorrow. Have fun with the cold.

Are you really shutting your water off?

Absolutely! If your pipes are in your attic and/or your faucet spigots are exposed, then you need to insulate them well. If they burst, you’ll have tens of thousands of dollars damage to your home.Letting them drip won’t help in this kind of cold. Prepare for widespread power outages if freezing rain is over 1/2 inch.

This is absolutely true with any water pipes in your attic it could spell disaster if they burst. for reference, there's a couple in my neighborhood with a home that had the water heater in the attic. While on a two week vacation this summer it burst and after 4 months and about $80,000 they almost have their home back.

[wxman57]

Not to get preachy here, but I think he's doing nothing more than we've all been doing on this board for several days now. Look at how the page count has gone up today alone, let alone over the last several days.

If some of this verifies, people will be shocked - SHOCKED - at how bitterly cold it is going to be early next week. I vividly remember the December 1983 sub-freezing cold snap up here along the Red River that ended just shy of 300 hours. Big Mineral arm on Lake Texoma froze over from one side to the other, smaller lakes had ice on them several inches thick, water mains and pipes broke all over Denison where I live, power was curtailed to all but essential businesses and homes, etc.

The potential severity of this multi-day event, let alone the potential effects on our local communities (power, travel, supplies) will be significant. Add in the humanitarian part that JB is talking about--I'm thinking about the many homeless in Dallas, Austin, etc.--and it could be a deadly siege of winter weather.

And this kind of cold will kill a lot of vegetation (I'm glad I don't have a St. Augustine lawn any longer) all the way to the Valley. The 1983 freeze all but wiped out the citrus industry in the RGV and killed uncountable numbers of redfish, speckled trout, etc. along the Gulf Coast. IMO, if these forecasts verify, this isn't just run of the mill winter weather fun, it's serious stuff.

Wait, what about St Augustine? Oh No. We have taken precautions for every other outdoor plant/tree (including heat lamps and even heaters) but not much I can do about the lawn other than hope for a foot of insulating snow.

St. Augustine grass should be fine down to about 20F. Below that, it may die in spots with extended sub-20 temps.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Not to get preachy here, but I think he's doing nothing more than we've all been doing on this board for several days now. Look at how the page count has gone up today alone, let alone over the last several days.

If some of this verifies, people will be shocked - SHOCKED - at how bitterly cold it is going to be early next week. I vividly remember the December 1983 sub-freezing cold snap up here along the Red River that ended just shy of 300 hours. Big Mineral arm on Lake Texoma froze over from one side to the other, smaller lakes had ice on them several inches thick, water mains and pipes broke all over Denison where I live, power was curtailed to all but essential businesses and homes, etc.

The potential severity of this multi-day event, let alone the potential effects on our local communities (power, travel, supplies) will be significant. Add in the humanitarian part that JB is talking about--I'm thinking about the many homeless in Dallas, Austin, etc.--and it could be a deadly siege of winter weather.

And this kind of cold will kill a lot of vegetation (I'm glad I don't have a St. Augustine lawn any longer) all the way to the Valley. The 1983 freeze all but wiped out the citrus industry in the RGV and killed uncountable numbers of redfish, speckled trout, etc. along the Gulf Coast. IMO, if these forecasts verify, this isn't just run of the mill winter weather fun, it's serious stuff.

Wait, what about St Augustine? Oh No. We have taken precautions for every other outdoor plant/tree (including heat lamps and even heaters) but not much I can do about the lawn other than hope for a foot of insulating snow.

The St Augustine will comeback, albeit it might be slower depending on fast and warm it gets in the spring. If we have a cooler spring, then it will be delayed. But at least you can put the lawnmower on ice for awhile. However some of the plants are going to be goners if the temp are this brutal and the duration is as long as advertised. Landscapers will be able to make a nice living starting in March although local nurseries might get impacted too.

[Texas Snowman]

Near 90 at the beach in Darwin today. I hear y’all may get a winter storm up there? Well, you’ve been wanting this. Going to have my butler fill up 6 Home Depot 5-gallon tubs of water on Sunday, as he’ll be shutting off water to the house and draining the pipes Sunday afternoon to maybe noon Tuesday. Will need water for cleaning and toilets. Won’t have to worry about food spoiling in the freezer, as we can just have him put the stuff outside.

Think I’ll go snorkeling tomorrow. Have fun with the cold.

Are you really shutting your water off?

Absolutely! If your pipes are in your attic and/or your faucet spigots are exposed, then you need to insulate them well. If they burst, you’ll have tens of thousands of dollars damage to your home.Letting them drip won’t help in this kind of cold. Prepare for widespread power outages if freezing rain is over 1/2 inch.

I was just talking about this with a good friend here in Texomaland. We have some mutual friends that live in the Galveston area and they had huge amounts of $$$ damage to their homes after overhead pipes burst in the freezes of the 1980s.

I was a journalist in 2000 when we had our “Silver Christmas” ice storm here in the Red River Valley. Worst ice storm I’ve ever seen and I worked 13-hour days because of the massive disruption of power here. The damage to trees and the power grid was huge, some homes in Grayson County were without power for 2 to 3-weeks.

[SoupBone]

Near 90 at the beach in Darwin today. I hear y’all may get a winter storm up there? Well, you’ve been wanting this. Going to have my butler fill up 6 Home Depot 5-gallon tubs of water on Sunday, as he’ll be shutting off water to the house and draining the pipes Sunday afternoon to maybe noon Tuesday. Will need water for cleaning and toilets. Won’t have to worry about food spoiling in the freezer, as we can just have him put the stuff outside.

Think I’ll go snorkeling tomorrow. Have fun with the cold.

Are you really shutting your water off?

Absolutely! If your pipes are in your attic and/or your faucet spigots are exposed, then you need to insulate them well. If they burst, you’ll have tens of thousands of dollars damage to your home.Letting them drip won’t help in this kind of cold. Prepare for widespread power outages if freezing rain is over 1/2 inch.

Where are you in Houston? I have a lot of insulation in the attic and radiant barriers as well, and I had planned on wrapping my pipes, but not much else.

[sphelps8681]

Are you really shutting your water off?

Absolutely! If your pipes are in your attic and/or your faucet spigots are exposed, then you need to insulate them well. If they burst, you’ll have tens of thousands of dollars damage to your home.Letting them drip won’t help in this kind of cold. Prepare for widespread power outages if freezing rain is over 1/2 inch.

This is absolutely true with any water pipes in your attic it could spell disaster if they burst. for reference, there's a couple in my neighborhood with a home that had the water heater in the attic. While on a two week vacation this summer it burst and after 4 months and about $80,000 they almost have their home back.

Thank goodness I have apex pipe all through my house from the main water line. Yes the water can freeze within but it flexes. We will see how it works with very cold weather. Supposedly water won't freeze until temp reaches 20 degrees.

[Quixotic]

Not to get preachy here, but I think he's doing nothing more than we've all been doing on this board for several days now. Look at how the page count has gone up today alone, let alone over the last several days.

If some of this verifies, people will be shocked - SHOCKED - at how bitterly cold it is going to be early next week. I vividly remember the December 1983 sub-freezing cold snap up here along the Red River that ended just shy of 300 hours. Big Mineral arm on Lake Texoma froze over from one side to the other, smaller lakes had ice on them several inches thick, water mains and pipes broke all over Denison where I live, power was curtailed to all but essential businesses and homes, etc.

The potential severity of this multi-day event, let alone the potential effects on our local communities (power, travel, supplies) will be significant. Add in the humanitarian part that JB is talking about--I'm thinking about the many homeless in Dallas, Austin, etc.--and it could be a deadly siege of winter weather.

And this kind of cold will kill a lot of vegetation (I'm glad I don't have a St. Augustine lawn any longer) all the way to the Valley. The 1983 freeze all but wiped out the citrus industry in the RGV and killed uncountable numbers of redfish, speckled trout, etc. along the Gulf Coast. IMO, if these forecasts verify, this isn't just run of the mill winter weather fun, it's serious stuff.

Wait, what about St Augustine? Oh No. We have taken precautions for every other outdoor plant/tree (including heat lamps and even heaters) but not much I can do about the lawn other than hope for a foot of insulating snow.

I wouldn’t worry about the St Augustine. My house growing up had it and 83, 85, 89 and 96 didn’t kill it. The drought of 1980 almost did the job.

[wxman57]

Are you really shutting your water off?

Absolutely! If your pipes are in your attic and/or your faucet spigots are exposed, then you need to insulate them well. If they burst, you’ll have tens of thousands of dollars damage to your home.Letting them drip won’t help in this kind of cold. Prepare for widespread power outages if freezing rain is over 1/2 inch.

Where are you in Houston? I have a lot of insulation in the attic and radiant barriers as well, and I had planned on wrapping my pipes, but not much else.

I’m in SW Houston, south of Meyerland/Bellaire. Radiant barriers will do nothing for you. You need a well-ventilated attic all year, meaning the attic temperature should equal the outdoor temperature. Otherwise, particularly in winter, Moisture may condense in your insulation and grow mold. The radiant barrier will keep the attic temperature from rising too much above the outdoor temperature in summer.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS. What more is there to say? Historic if verified.

How many more maps do we need?

[SoupBone]

Absolutely! If your pipes are in your attic and/or your faucet spigots are exposed, then you need to insulate them well. If they burst, you’ll have tens of thousands of dollars damage to your home.Letting them drip won’t help in this kind of cold. Prepare for widespread power outages if freezing rain is over 1/2 inch.

Where are you in Houston? I have a lot of insulation in the attic and radiant barriers as well, and I had planned on wrapping my pipes, but not much else.

I’m in SW Houston, south of Meyerland/Bellaire. Radiant barriers will do nothing for you. You need a well-ventilated attic all year, meaning the attic temperature should equal the outdoor temperature. Otherwise, particularly in winter, Moisture may condense in your insulation and grow mold. The radiant barrier will keep the attic temperature from rising too much above the outdoor temperature in summer.

I guess I could open my attic doors and fire up the gas fireplace. I know that will work even if the power goes out. The fireplace gets really hot too so I know it would work.