Texas Winter 2021-2022

[gboudx]

1/4 is huge and probably will shut down Austin, Dallas and FTW. I am frozen from 11pm tomorrow until 5pm Saturday with a low of 7 Thursday night. Might take a while to evap.

Rewrapping water well pipes today and brining in some fire wood. Just going to hunker down for next 3 days and hope I don’t lose power.

Is your location still Kemah? Confused by the location and comment about being frozen from 11pm tomorrow.

Nah I am up in Brownwood Central Texas as you can get. lol. Decided go country life lol…Didn’t realize it’s gets this cold up here.

Ah, that explains the comment then.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Didn’t see it mentioned earlier … Winter Storm Watch in effect here in the Austin area for Thursday. NWS says up to 1/4” ice accumulation possible. I’ve seen 0.08” paralyze this town when it froze all the bridges and overpasses.

No Winter Storm Watch in SA/Bexar County. Wouldn’t be surprised if we’re added by tonight seeing how the models keep trending further & further south. Looks like January 2018 all over again for us. I hope whatever system is being seen for Saturday snow actually registers

[Tammie]

I found this sounding on the 6z ICON, the Warm Nose is already gone, but the DGZ, jeez.

Also Heavy Snow at 15°F (-9.4°C), the Snowfall Ratio is much higher than 10:1, it's likely closer to 15:1 to 17:1

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/icon_06_048_85129909_skewt_weathernerds.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/icon_06_048_85129909_skewt_weathernerds.png

For the entire area, or specific areas?

[Quixotic]

At 48hr, 12z HRRR is colder than 06z 3k NAM but not as cold as 06z GFS.

At 14hr, 12z 3k NAM is moving cold air south faster with areas in the northern Panhandles (leading edge of freezing line) about 5F cooler than 00z.

Freezing line is running about 1 row of counties faster than 06z. The 3K NAM is trending towards getting DFW (at least northern portions) below freezing before the onset of significant precipitation.

Like clockwork. I could set my watch to it. Pingers and snow, man. Pingers and snow.

[Iceresistance]

I found this sounding on the 6z ICON, the Warm Nose is already gone, but the DGZ, jeez.

Also Heavy Snow at 15°F (-9.4°C), the Snowfall Ratio is much higher than 10:1, it's likely closer to 15:1 to 17:1

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/icon_06_048_85129909_skewt_weathernerds.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/icon_06_048_85129909_skewt_weathernerds.png

For the entire area, or specific areas?

Sorry, I was pointing out Central Oklahoma, the location of the sounding can be seen on the Upper Right of the vertical sounding data.

[txtwister78]

SHV is still very conservative which I guess is understandable given that only the western fringe of their area should see significant impacts. I expect to be placed into a watch after 12z runs are analyzed. With warnings coming out tonight, maybe SHV watis on warnings until tomorrow morning.

There's likely going to be a line of sadness somewhere along a line from San Antonio to Texarkana - at or above freezing. Sunday I thought that might happen along the I-35 corridor, maybe the 0Z moves it further east?

I think if you were talking about snow (obviously that can still happen even with surface temps above freezing but not in this case/event) I would agree with you, but speaking for myself, quite frankly I'll be just fine if the freezing rain stays out of SA. I don't quite get the "excitement" about ice because unlike snow, you can't do a thing in ice and its quite dangerous. So "sadness" probably not the word I would use to describe that down here at least. Keep us above freezing here if its ice.

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV is still very conservative which I guess is understandable given that only the western fringe of their area should see significant impacts. I expect to be placed into a watch after 12z runs are analyzed. With warnings coming out tonight, maybe SHV watis on warnings until tomorrow morning.

There's likely going to be a line of sadness somewhere along a line from San Antonio to Texarkana - at or above freezing. Sunday I thought that might happen along the I-35 corridor, maybe the 0Z moves it further east?

Line for significant impacts apears to be San Antonio to College Station to Longview to Texarkana. The Longview to Texarkana area could range from staying above freezing to half inch of ice very easily.
NAM really holds the cold air back every other model has the Tyler area well be low freezing by around 6am. Looking at soundings here the warm nose is not real warm and it may be defeated at least to sleet by 9am and snow by 12pm. Of course a slightly more stout warm nose and its all freezing rain until flurries Thu evening.

[cheezyWXguy]

SHV is still very conservative which I guess is understandable given that only the western fringe of their area should see significant impacts. I expect to be placed into a watch after 12z runs are analyzed. With warnings coming out tonight, maybe SHV watis on warnings until tomorrow morning.

There's likely going to be a line of sadness somewhere along a line from San Antonio to Texarkana - at or above freezing. Sunday I thought that might happen along the I-35 corridor, maybe the 0Z moves it further east?

NAM really holds the cold air back every other model has the Tyler area well be low freezing by around 6am. Looking at soundings here the warm nose is not real warm and it may be defeated at least to sleet by 9am and snow by 12pm. Of course a slightly more stout warm nose and its all freezing rain until flurries Thu evening.

What’s funny is, the front and the freezing line progress southeast faster than the previous run through hour 36, then it switches to slower than the previous run thereafter. Think it’s still having issues in its mid range

[LearnedHat]

At 48hr, 12z HRRR is colder than 06z 3k NAM but not as cold as 06z GFS.

At 14hr, 12z 3k NAM is moving cold air south faster with areas in the northern Panhandles (leading edge of freezing line) about 5F cooler than 00z.

Freezing line is running about 1 row of counties faster than 06z. The 3K NAM is trending towards getting DFW (at least northern portions) below freezing before the onset of significant precipitation.

Like clockwork. I could set my watch to it. Pingers and snow, man. Pingers and snow.

Does the early moisture and precip act to accelerate the decrease or stall/delay the drop in the model temperatures? Or is it all taken into account?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Again, havent read anything, but just looking at the long range, i think eventually another big blast is coming. Hopefully SE TX will get in on the mix.

[Iceresistance]

12z ICON has the Warm Nose collapsing fast on the Soundings in Central Oklahoma.

[CaptinCrunch]

If you really want to know where the surface cold is start plotting the airports and WSO. Models will show you where the front is, but we know the artic air at the surface will be out ahead of the main front.

Once the surface hits freezing the frz rain will start accumulating on elevated surfaces, trees, power lines and so on.

[Quixotic]

Freezing line is running about 1 row of counties faster than 06z. The 3K NAM is trending towards getting DFW (at least northern portions) below freezing before the onset of significant precipitation.

Like clockwork. I could set my watch to it. Pingers and snow, man. Pingers and snow.

Does the early moisture and precip act to accelerate the decrease or stall/delay the drop in the model temperatures? Or is it all taken into account?

It's more the difficulty of models to account for the shallow, dense cold air. For whatever reason, it almost always underestimates the timing. Additionally, it has a tendency to overdo the effect of any approaching upper level storm that might hold it up because the flow is counter to the direction of the air mass.

Precip is another matter. Once the cold is in place at the surface, depending on the precip and amounts, it can either warm or cool the surface layer. An example would be November 2013 where the rain went through a significant warm nose and was warm enough to release heat when it hit the ground, raising temps. A few weeks later, the opposite occurred where the warm nose was not as significant and the rain actually cooled the surface. The difference was a light coating of ice in the former and a significant ice/sleet storm in the latter. We had a terrific local met who explained the process very well but he moved on to Arkansas.

[Iceresistance]

NWS-Norman has 4-6 inches of snow for my area

[Iceresistance]

I don't know what to say on NWS-Tulsa. (I'm sure that Brent is going to be very surprised seeing this)


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SNOW24HRTHREAT20220202_1200.png

[wxman57]

Been working on advisories for Batsirai in the South Indian Ocean and another storm in the South Pacific. Haven't looked at 12Z models yet as far as the ice storm. I did check my rain gauge and found 1.17" since yesterday morning. A slow, steady 24-hr rainfall.

There is still no really cold air in the Northern Plains. I see temps -2 to -6 in NE Montana and NW S. Dakota, and some -10 to -15 temps in central Alberta and Saskatchewan. That's not particularly cold for this time of year. Nowhere near the -30 to -40 temps ahead of last year's front. You'll have to wait until after tomorrow's 12Z runs to have a better idea about the frozen precip. Without a well-defined frontal boundary, models won't do too well with the forecast.

[Ntxw]

Nothing to add from the 12z suite so far we've hammered this to the ground with every run. Only sig trend is the Hi Res models gradually being faster with the cold air. Oklahoma gets a lot of snow, NTX freezing rain, sleet overnight changing to snow by mid morning. QPF liquid is 1-2" which is very high for a winter weather system in our region. Texarkana-Tyler-College Station-Austin looks like freezing rain midnight to morning then change to sleet briefly as it ends.

[Brent]

I don't know what to say on NWS-Tulsa. (I'm sure that Brent is going to be very surprised seeing this)

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SNOW24HRTHREAT20220202_1200.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SNOW24HRTHREAT20220202_1200.png

What the heck I just saw that an hour ago and it had 5-6

[Ntxw]

I don't know what to say on NWS-Tulsa. (I'm sure that Brent is going to be very surprised seeing this)

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SNOW24HRTHREAT20220202_1200.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SNOW24HRTHREAT20220202_1200.png

What the heck I just saw that an hour ago and it had 5-6

Initial band could have thundersnow in Eastern Oklahoma. Also with the colder trends is less sleet and higher ratios.

[Brent]

I don't know what to say on NWS-Tulsa. (I'm sure that Brent is going to be very surprised seeing this)

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SNOW24HRTHREAT20220202_1200.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SNOW24HRTHREAT20220202_1200.png

What the heck I just saw that an hour ago and it had 5-6

Initial band could have thundersnow in Eastern Oklahoma. Also with the colder trends is less sleet and higher ratios.

I mean I guess it's possible but their forecast has been 4-8. It's such a drastic change