Texas Winter 2018-2019

[orangeblood]

As I stated before... An eastern based cold pattern like this is very stable. You basically need a wholesale pattern change to give us a better chance. We are running out of time. Also Pressure watch.. Highest pressure I could find in Canada is 1032. I'm sorry that just won't cut it. Also we have had little in the way of northern mexico upper lows. Models are not changing their tune either. Not good Not good.

Winter isn't over yet...EURO Ensembles are starting to look very interesting as we move through Feb.. Siberia is getting really cold/hints of cross-polar flow setting up/Western Canada cold air build/EPO tank and Greenland Block - what's not to like ???!!

Meh..same old song..."looking good 10 days out..." etc. If we do get cold it will be too dry for any fun.

Personally, Wouldn’t bet against the snowiest month of the year, by far!!

[Ralph's Weather]

Winter isn't over yet...EURO Ensembles are starting to look very interesting as we move through Feb.. Siberia is getting really cold/hints of cross-polar flow setting up/Western Canada cold air build/EPO tank and Greenland Block - what's not to like ???!!

Meh..same old song..."looking good 10 days out..." etc. If we do get cold it will be too dry for any fun.

Personally, Wouldn’t bet against the snowiest month of the year, by far!!

Agreed, I am interested in what happend after the 1st week of Feb. A cold Canada and no anomalous TPV trumping everything else. Fingers crossed for a -EPO and -PNA pattern along with a -AO.

[Brent]

the cold forecast to our NE is something else next week... on the 18z GFS Chicago's high on Wednesday is around -20 even for them this would be historic cold

imagine if its too warm again

[ThunderSleetDreams]

the cold forecast to our NE is something else next week... on the 18z GFS Chicago's high on Wednesday is around -20 even for them this would be historic cold

imagine if its too warm again

I may have to take a trip to Corporate next week for observation

[TheProfessor]

Wow, it really looks like I'm going to be tested on how much I can withstand the cold this week. The windchills are going to be brutal

Edit: Windchills get down to -30 here Wednesday afternoon on the 18z GFS. The 12z GFS was even colder for 3z Thursday approaching -40. That's insane.

[Brent]

Meanwhile the FV GFS continues to be a tease for next week. A much bigger wave on Wednesday again and yes this run actually really snows in DFW

[bubba hotep]

Meanwhile the FV GFS continues to be a tease for next week. A much bigger wave on Wednesday again and yes this run actually really snows in DFW

http://i66.tinypic.com/2h5jh20.png

Looks like the 12z Euro Control run shifted south

[Quixotic]

the cold forecast to our NE is something else next week... on the 18z GFS Chicago's high on Wednesday is around -20 even for them this would be historic cold

imagine if its too warm again

It’s wrong.

[orangeblood]

Latest Euro Weeklies look really good for cold, only showing 3-4 days of above normal out of the 46 day run (-AO -EPO and finally a west-based NAO developing)...still on the dry side though

[orangeblood]

Latest Euro Weeklies look really good for cold, only showing 3-4 days of above normal out of the 46 day run (-AO -EPO and finally a west-based NAO developing)...still on the dry side though

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile the FV GFS continues to be a tease for next week. A much bigger wave on Wednesday again and yes this run actually really snows in DFW

http://i66.tinypic.com/2h5jh20.png

Anafront.

[wxman22]

I was thinking the same thing, this looks like a very similar setup to what produced our sleetstorm in Southeast Texas last year, hopefully this time more people can get in on some snow than last years event.

[bubba hotep]

Latest Euro Weeklies look really good for cold, only showing 3-4 days of above normal out of the 46 day run (-AO -EPO and finally a west-based NAO developing)...still on the dry side though

The 500mb evolution looks really good on this run. Beyond that, I haven't really noticed much skill in the precipitation maps unless they show no snow for DFW lol!

[Haris]

GFS 18z kinda showing what 0z euro had for ctx mid next week but in the form of rain mostly....

GEFS however have nothing. Not looking too good but we'll see

[bubba hotep]

18z FV3 looks pretty legit for areas north of I20

[Brent]

18z FV3 looks pretty legit for areas north of I20

https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/850_temp_mslp_precip/gfs_namer_138_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

let's get February started early

doesn't seem to be much support for the idea though, but we do have time to trend better at least

[South Texas Storms]

Contrary to what wxman57 said this morning, Arctic Thunder and I are not waving the white flag on winter yet. We think there will be too much cold air nearby to give up this early. We just need some moisture and disturbance to meet up with it to give us the goods!

Next week has some potential...its low, but it's there. Hoping for good model trends over the next few days!

[Ntxw]

18z FV3 looks pretty legit for areas north of I20

https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/850_temp_mslp_precip/gfs_namer_138_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

let's get February started early

doesn't seem to be much support for the idea though, but we do have time to trend better at least

The anafront type stuff usually isn't caught well by guidance until the high range models. We wouldn't need too much qpf if the upper air is really cold.

Of course it could always be like last year and it's way too cold benefiting C and SE Texas instead...

[Brent]

18z FV3 looks pretty legit for areas north of I20

https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/850_temp_mslp_precip/gfs_namer_138_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

let's get February started early

doesn't seem to be much support for the idea though, but we do have time to trend better at least

The anafront type stuff usually isn't caught well by guidance until the high range models. We wouldn't need too much qpf if the upper air is really cold.

Of course it could always be like last year and it's way too cold benefiting C and SE Texas instead...

those are both good points, I mean I wouldn't be surprised by either scenario at this point

one thing next week doesn't look like the warmup will be that quick, if there's any kind of second wave especially, some globals are back to average quickly

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, if the eps is correct in bringing the cold pattern back i guess based on the mjo progression, can we still have optimism moving forward that things could shift somewhat more favorable? Its been extremely progressive this winter. The TPV has probably hurt us also.