Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Texas Snowman]

Yeah, I didn’t mean the St. Augustine died and went away in my neighborhood back in the 1980s. It did get knocked back somewhat and took longer to come back, or so it seemed. But what did I know then, I was just a kid.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS keeps the Potentally Dangerous Storm trend going . . .



Snowfall is still looking crazy. (24-Hour Kuchera Ratio)



18z GFS-Para



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall



EDIT: GIF Loading Error occured in the 18z GFS Kuchera Ratio . . .

[Cerlin]

All of this talk about potential damage and long lasting impact is exactly why IMO, every single meteorologist needs to be more bullish than conservative. I’m not an expert and I can’t make their decisions, but I’d rather say that we’ll have potentially record breaking cold and forecast some lows in the single digits all the way to the gulf coast and have it bust by 10-20° than be too conservative and not educate the public about how crucial proper preparation is for the cold snap. I get the notion that meteorologists should avoid alarmist rhetoric but I feel like the guidance is strong enough that we are in for something that only happens a few times a lifetime. I’d rather not chance it.

[Ntxw]

All of this talk about potential damage and long lasting impact is exactly why IMO, every single meteorologist needs to be more bullish than conservative. I’m not an expert and I can’t make their decisions, but I’d rather say that we’ll have potentially record breaking cold and forecast some lows in the single digits all the way to the gulf coast and have it bust by 10-20° than be too conservative and not educate the public about how crucial proper preparation is for the cold snap. I get the notion that meteorologists should avoid alarmist rhetoric but I feel like the guidance is strong enough that we are in for something that only happens a few times a lifetime. I’d rather not chance it.

Wxman57 is one we have to take very seriously. He is not a cold monger, and is a very well respected person here on the forums. His advice during the tropical season is golden you take with heavy weight. This cold snap is no joke. There are some questions further south (but even here it's very significant) but the Northern half of the state is in for a deep freeze that has already begun.

It has been a long time since we have seen a cold snap like this. Decades ago and negligence, belief it can't happen has not prepared the booming population for such an event in what is now large sprawling urban centers.

[Brent]

All of this talk about potential damage and long lasting impact is exactly why IMO, every single meteorologist needs to be more bullish than conservative. I’m not an expert and I can’t make their decisions, but I’d rather say that we’ll have potentially record breaking cold and forecast some lows in the single digits all the way to the gulf coast and have it bust by 10-20° than be too conservative and not educate the public about how crucial proper preparation is for the cold snap. I get the notion that meteorologists should avoid alarmist rhetoric but I feel like the guidance is strong enough that we are in for something that only happens a few times a lifetime. I’d rather not chance it.

just saw a TV met talk about the coldest in 3 years I don't think people realize how historic this could be when this stuff is on TV. How many more maps do they need?

[iorange55]

All of this talk about potential damage and long lasting impact is exactly why IMO, every single meteorologist needs to be more bullish than conservative. I’m not an expert and I can’t make their decisions, but I’d rather say that we’ll have potentially record breaking cold and forecast some lows in the single digits all the way to the gulf coast and have it bust by 10-20° than be too conservative and not educate the public about how crucial proper preparation is for the cold snap. I get the notion that meteorologists should avoid alarmist rhetoric but I feel like the guidance is strong enough that we are in for something that only happens a few times a lifetime. I’d rather not chance it.

The flip side to this is that if it doesn't verify, then no one will trust them the next time it happens. The best pro mets can find that sweet middle ground, but it's hard to do because most people have a weird disdain for meteorologists. They don't trust them and claim they're always wrong, "they don't know what they're talking about half the time!"

And mostly that's because they're not actually listening to what they're saying or don't know how to read the maps correctly. Or sometimes it's just because they heard a friend say something, and then when it didn't happen, the blame gets put on the weatherman.

Anyway, I get why they're cautious, but at the same time, they could explain things in more detail and give all possibilities so people are more prepared.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

@BigJoeBastardi - The State ot Texas is going to be tested on so many levels, I hope gvt and EMA is ready. There will be little wind in west Texas while the core of the cold which may drive temperatures to 0 in Austin, single digits IAH/SAT teens valley hit after major snow/ice storm.

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - This is as close to the Feb 1899 outbreak as I have ever seen as that had a lot of snow also. 1983 and 1985. had less. This is by far the coldest this century. Humanitarian interests with immigration plus blackouts in extreme cold big concern, at least to me

——-

@BigJoeBastardi - I feel like its 5 days before Harvey, except in a winter event

Isn’t 1899 one of the VERY FEW times that Galveston Bay iced over?

[funster]

It seems like Dallas should possibly be under ice storm warning based on that new discussion? They say 1/4 or more of freezing rain possible but chose not to go with it. Maybe I am missing something.

[Ntxw]

It seems like Dallas should possibly be under ice storm warning based on that new discussion? They say 1/4 or more of freezing rain possible but chose not to go with it. Maybe I am missing something.

They noted that it was dependent on localized bursts of precip so coverage confidence was low. It will likely be a nowcast type thing.

[Texas Snowman]

All of this talk about potential damage and long lasting impact is exactly why IMO, every single meteorologist needs to be more bullish than conservative. I’m not an expert and I can’t make their decisions, but I’d rather say that we’ll have potentially record breaking cold and forecast some lows in the single digits all the way to the gulf coast and have it bust by 10-20° than be too conservative and not educate the public about how crucial proper preparation is for the cold snap. I get the notion that meteorologists should avoid alarmist rhetoric but I feel like the guidance is strong enough that we are in for something that only happens a few times a lifetime. I’d rather not chance it.

just saw a TV met talk about the coldest in 3 years I don't think people realize how historic this could be when this stuff is on TV. How many more maps do they need?

Coldest in 3 years? Wow. Still some days to go, but not many. If some (or all) of this verifies we’re talking the potential for ALL-TIME record cold and the coldest siege in 122 years!

[Brent]

All of this talk about potential damage and long lasting impact is exactly why IMO, every single meteorologist needs to be more bullish than conservative. I’m not an expert and I can’t make their decisions, but I’d rather say that we’ll have potentially record breaking cold and forecast some lows in the single digits all the way to the gulf coast and have it bust by 10-20° than be too conservative and not educate the public about how crucial proper preparation is for the cold snap. I get the notion that meteorologists should avoid alarmist rhetoric but I feel like the guidance is strong enough that we are in for something that only happens a few times a lifetime. I’d rather not chance it.

just saw a TV met talk about the coldest in 3 years I don't think people realize how historic this could be when this stuff is on TV. How many more maps do they need?

Coldest in 3 years? Wow. Still some days to go, but not many. If some (or all) of this verifies we’re talking the potential for ALL-TIME record cold and the coldest siege in 122 years!

Not to mention when it was that cold 3 years ago it warmed up fast...

okay Dan Henry just said coldest in 25 years on air... that was better

[Iceresistance]

KFOR is calling for a low after the Big Storm to be -15°F!

[SoupBone]

Wxman57 has me concerned I should buy a generator. Lowes already picked up all of their heaters, none in stock.

[Ntxw]

All of this talk about potential damage and long lasting impact is exactly why IMO, every single meteorologist needs to be more bullish than conservative. I’m not an expert and I can’t make their decisions, but I’d rather say that we’ll have potentially record breaking cold and forecast some lows in the single digits all the way to the gulf coast and have it bust by 10-20° than be too conservative and not educate the public about how crucial proper preparation is for the cold snap. I get the notion that meteorologists should avoid alarmist rhetoric but I feel like the guidance is strong enough that we are in for something that only happens a few times a lifetime. I’d rather not chance it.

just saw a TV met talk about the coldest in 3 years I don't think people realize how historic this could be when this stuff is on TV. How many more maps do they need?

Coldest in 3 years? Wow. Still some days to go, but not many. If some (or all) of this verifies we’re talking the potential for ALL-TIME record cold and the coldest siege in 122 years!

If some of the coldest guidance are realized we may never see it again in our lifetimes.

[HockeyTx82]

Sent my dad the link to this forum, he's always wondered where I send my cryptic screen shots from.

Anyhow, hello Dad!!! If you read this. Join too.

He's in the Lewisville/Carrollton area.

[gpsnowman]

just saw a TV met talk about the coldest in 3 years I don't think people realize how historic this could be when this stuff is on TV. How many more maps do they need?

Coldest in 3 years? Wow. Still some days to go, but not many. If some (or all) of this verifies we’re talking the potential for ALL-TIME record cold and the coldest siege in 122 years!

Not to mention when it was that cold 3 years ago it warmed up fast...

okay Dan Henry just said coldest in 25 years on air... that was better

25 years would be the anniversary of the last single digit reading in DFW. Feb 96 it got down 8.

[Iceresistance]

COD Meteorology having issues with 18z GEFS right now, Currently Stuck at +138 hours, & can't post anything until after Hour 216 for amount of Mean Snowfall & Ensemble Snowfall because there are storms until then . . .

[opticsguy]

I was duck hunting that morning on Cooper Lake in 1996. The beer that was in the tent with me (we camped at the lake) froze solid. I remember breaking the ice with our boat. LPT. Ducks can't land on a frozen lake.

[rwfromkansas]

That GFS seems to skip a few frames. Wish they had slower animations. But, it does seem to back off but only barely for western north TX.

I have unliked some local DFW Mets and added Dan Henry. I want to follow somebody who knows something.

[funster]

Potential freezing rain starting to show up on radar south of DFW. Branches please stay in your trees tonight.