Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Duddy]

857 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

[Duddy]

Didn't get as cold as they thought it would. Only got to 26F at my house, 24F at the airport.

37F down here in Wilmington

[Brent]

Models looking snowier in northern/central parts of MS/AL and North GA tomorrow night:

[northjaxpro]

, Yeah, looks as if the potent upper level cold core vort will move across the SE U.S. late tonight into tomorrow. Just may see a very light dusting or minor accumulation of snow across Northern MS, AL and GA. May see snow flurries as far south as Montgomery, AL and Macon, GA into tomorrow.

[bella_may]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CST TUE NOV 26 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-271115-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
403 PM CST TUE NOV 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SLEET COULD MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FREQUENT GUST OF 30 TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

[Brent]

Brief changeover to snow being reported as the precip ends west of me... not lasting long enough to accumulate.

[Brent]

I just got a 20 minute near blizzard of heavy snow that quickly accumulated on the grassy/elevated surfaces. WOW. I was expecting some stray flakes and was stunned by this one. Heaviest totals in the entire state right here and now it's pushing into Atlanta for morning rush hour. Just beat the crap out of the last 2 winters combined in one swoop.

Best pics I have with it still dark out.

[Tstormwatcher]

No snow here but boy did it rain. 2.98 inches since it started last night. Plus Morehead City, about 35 minutes from here had a Tornado. It was 70F this morning, 41F now.

[Kennethb]

Congrats to Brent. Nice.

It's a white Thanksgiving here in Baton Rouge this morning. White with a heavy frost.

[Tstormwatcher]

Ugh, it is supposed to hit 80F on Friday.

[northjaxpro]

Upper Level ridge is anchored across the SE U.S and will stay in place for at least the next week looking long range. Polar jet will stay in place across the Western U.S., and the Plains the next several daysn so the coldest air will stay locked into place in those areas, while unseasonable warmth will remain across my region and along portions of the immediate SE U.S. Atlantic seaboard.

No freezes seen at least up until the middle of this month in North Florida area.

[knoxtnhorn]

This is so lame. As a Texas transplant AND a lover of all things snowy and icy AND my new career as a teacher, I'm really hating this weather right now. My guess is that the ridge over the SE breaks up just in time to give us wintry weather right about the time that we get released for Winter Break.

[Ntxw]

I wish I had better news for the southeast and central gulf about cold air aiming for you guys for those looking for it. It is +AO winter and there are no signs of it going away. The NAO is too neutral/positive to be of any use and the southeast ridge has done everything it can to push against any cold surges from taking a direct hit, damming it up against the Rockies and oozing due south.

The AO must dip negative first for any real meaningful cold in this region or a very +PNA/

[BigB0882]

Thanks for the information on the +AO. Some of those look to dip close to or just below negative at the very end, probably around the new year. Maybe they will be right and it will plummet. January and February are typically colder anyway. I'll sacrifice a cold December for a truly cold Jan/Feb.

[knoxtnhorn]

Agree. I'll gladly sacrifice cold/snow/ice over the next 3 or so weeks for some horrid weather after, say, January 6th, which I believe is our first day back at school.

[Tstormwatcher]

Well, it looks like another brown Christmas here. After 2 days of record highs, we have finally have cooled off. It hit 78 yesterday, 80 on Sunday and today it hit 47. Tomorrow will be even cooler, a high of 44. Still got my fingers crossed for some snow in Jan or Feb.

Merry Christmas everyone.

[Ntxw]

SE ridge is going to get beaten down by the AO and PNA. Hopefully soon this thread will awaken with wintry threats particularly the mid south and Carolinas. Maybe we can spin up a gulf low in January for some fun eh?

[northjaxpro]

Look at the latest EURO run regarding surface temperatures progged for next Tuesday 1/7/14. If this verifies, we may be looking at some extreme cold moving into the Deep South early next week with freezing temps possibly reaching as far south as central Florida. Waiting to see if the GFS will trend more around to this similar solution as currently that model is not showing the magnitude of the cold being that great in the same time frame.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It caught the attention of our nws office and they had an unusually long- long range discussion about it this morning, yesterday wasnt even mentioned and was three sentences. They are leaning with the euro on being correct but before going all in and betting the house on it they want to see more model consistency and the gfs come around. I am in the will believe it when I see it camp.

[Tstormwatcher]

I do hope that verifies. We need some real cold weather here. Would love to see some snow too.